Inflation remains sticky, markets expect a rate hike, and Bitcoin now faces two clear scenarios.

This week was a real test for risk assets.

Inflation remained sticky. Oil stayed above $100. Treasury yields moved higher. Markets now expect the Federal Reserve to raise rates next week.

Bitcoin still held above its main daily trend averages.

That does not confirm a full breakout. It does show resilience.

Headline producer prices rose 0.4% in August. That matched the monthly forecast.

The annual rate reached 5.4%, slightly above the expected 5.3%.

Core PPI rose 0.2% for the month and 4.6% over the year. The monthly core number was slightly softer than expected. View the PPI report.

Headline CPI also rose 0.4% in August and held at 3.4% over the year. Both matched expectations.

Core inflation eased to 2.4% over the year. However, monthly core CPI rose 0.3%, which was one tenth above expectations. View the CPI report.

The message is mixed.

Inflation is improving over the longer period, but price pressure has not disappeared.

As of late Friday morning, futures markets implied about an 88% chance of a 25-basis-point rate hike next week.

That is market pricing. It is not a guarantee.

The current Fed target range is 3.50% to 3.75%. A quarter-point hike would move it to 3.75% to 4.00%.

The Fed meets on Tuesday and Wednesday, September 15 and 16. The decision comes Wednesday at 2:00 p.m. Eastern Time, followed by the press conference at 2:30 p.m.

The meeting will also include updated economic projections and a new dot plot.

My base case remains a 25-basis-point hike.

A rate hike could create short-term pressure.

It does not automatically end a Bitcoin bull market.

The reason behind the hike matters. The market’s expectations matter too.

If the hike is already priced in and the Fed does not signal a long series of additional hikes, Bitcoin can still hold its structure or move higher.

Bitcoin is affected by inflation through Fed policy, yields, the dollar, liquidity, and risk appetite. It does not trade on the inflation number alone.

This is why I watch the full reaction.

If the dollar breaks higher, real yields continue rising, liquidity tightens, and Bitcoin loses long-term support, I would become more cautious.

If the Fed hikes but the broader financial conditions remain stable, the market may look past the decision.

Bitcoin was near $77,000 on Friday and was down roughly 4.5% over the previous seven days.

It remains above its main daily trend averages. It is still below the 50-week moving average, which remains the key weekly test.

The sharp decline this week came after another rejection from that major weekly resistance area. At the same time, traders increased their expectations for a rate hike.

Bitcoin has not confirmed a weekly breakout yet.

But it also has not lost its wider recovery structure.

That keeps the bullish case alive while we wait for stronger confirmation.

At Sonderberg Research we were able to invest right around $60,000.

We are patiently waiting for either scenario. Dips are for buying.

Ethereum continued to outperform Bitcoin this week and reached a new local high.

That relative strength matters.

It does not mean Ethereum can only move higher. Crypto assets still experience large corrections. But the market is showing that demand is not limited to Bitcoin.

The broad Ethereum thesis remains constructive, we are very satisfied with our Ethereum allocation.

Over the last two weeks, we completed and delivered a bull-market strategy for every Sonderberg Research client.

Each strategy is built around that client’s portfolio, risk limits, time horizon, and current position.

The research covers the full cycle.

It includes how capital may be deployed over time, how to respond to weakness, how to act after confirmation, how to harvest gains, how to recycle profits, how to preserve dry powder, and how to recognize when the cycle is changing.

It also includes a daily monitoring process.

We are not sending a document once and leaving it untouched. We work on the research every day as macro conditions, market structure, flows, and client circumstances change.

The public newsletter can explain the framework.

Client research contains the exact levels, timing, portfolio changes, allocation details, alerts, and decision rules.

That is the difference between understanding the market and having a plan built around your own portfolio.

We are also researching selected altcoins.

Exact allocations or entry rules remain private with our clients.

Those decisions depend on liquidity, risk, portfolio size, and the rest of the client’s exposure.

We are also reviewing a much smaller speculative asset. That remains research only while we examine its liquidity, token structure, ownership, and public information.

Not every idea needs to become a position.

But as you can see, we are slowly building preparing for a big move in the market.

Bitcoin ETF flows reversed this week.

From Tuesday through Thursday, United States spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded about $449.5 million in combined net outflows. The prior week recorded roughly $986.7 million in net inflows.

Friday’s data was not complete when this email was prepared.

The flow data does not tell us exactly who sold or why.

What matters is that Bitcoin held its daily structure during a week of outflows and stronger rate expectations.

The Crypto Fear and Greed Index fell to 56.

That is a meaningful drop from the previous reading, but the index is still classified as Greed.

Investors became more cautious. They have not entered full fear.

That is a better environment for disciplined research than extreme optimism, but it is not a reason to assume the market must fall.

Brent crude remained above $100 after a sharp move higher on Thursday. It pulled back on Friday, but energy prices remain high. Read the latest oil-market update.

The S&P 500 was roughly 0.6% lower for the week at the time of writing. The weekly candle was still open, and the index remains near its highs.

Gold weakened this week. Our latest investment at a price of $4,000 is still live.

The market is not giving us one simple message. That is why we need to look at several assets together.

Next week is dominated by the Fed.

Retail sales arrive Wednesday morning, followed by the rate decision, economic projections, and press conference.

Housing starts, building permits, and weekly jobless claims arrive Thursday.

Industrial production arrives Friday.

Lennar also reports after Wednesday’s close, with its earnings call on Thursday morning.

The hike itself may not be the biggest event.

The more important question is what the Fed says about the path after the meeting.

A hike with limited follow-through could allow Bitcoin to remain firm.

A hike combined with rising yields and a stronger dollar could create another pullback.

Again, dips are for buying.

I remain constructive on Bitcoin’s wider recovery.

I am not calling a confirmed breakout while Bitcoin remains below its major weekly resistance.

Ethereum continues to show strong relative performance.

The market can still correct. That is normal.

The mistake is not taking a loss on one trade. The larger mistake is having no process for weakness, confirmation, profit-taking, or re-entry.

That is the work we completed for our clients over the last two weeks.

The free newsletter will continue to explain what matters.

The exact personalized execution plan remains inside Sonderberg Research.

If you manage a substantial portfolio and want to learn how the research process works, you can request a Strategy Call below.

Schedule here: https://sonderbergresearch.com/schedule

Monday (September 14)

Economic: No major U.S. economic data releases scheduled, U.S. 3-Month and 6-Month Bill Auctions
Earnings: The Hain Celestial Group Inc. (HAIN), Kestra Medical Technologies Inc. (KMTS), RF Industries Ltd. (RFIL), Coda Octopus Group Inc. (CODA), RLX Technology / Radiant Logistics Inc. (RLGT), Hypha Laboratories (HYFT)

Tuesday (September 15)

Economic: Empire State Manufacturing Index, FOMC Two-Day Meeting Begins, U.S. Import and Export Price Indexes
Earnings: Trip.com Group Ltd. (TCOM), Vera Bradley Inc. (VRA), Ferguson Enterprises Inc. (FERG), Forgent Power Solutions (FPS), Evolution Petroleum Corp. (EPM), Allurion Technologies Inc. (ALUR)

Wednesday (September 16)

Economic: FOMC Interest Rate Decision, FOMC Summary of Economic Projections (SEP & Dot Plot), Fed Chair Press Conference, Retail Sales (MoM & Core/Control Group), MBA Mortgage Applications Index, NAHB Housing Market Index, Business Inventories, EIA Crude Oil Inventories
Earnings: Lennar Corp. (LEN), Cracker Barrel Old Country Store Inc. (CBRL), LuxExperience B.V. (LUXE), Aeluma Inc. (ALMU), Anixa Biosciences Inc. (ANIX), 111 Inc. (YI)

Thursday (September 17)

Economic: Initial Jobless Claims, Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index, Housing Starts and Building Permits, EIA Natural Gas Storage
Earnings: FedEx Corp. (FDX), Darden Restaurants Inc. (DRI), Cognition Therapeutics Inc. (CGNT), Advanced Battery Technologies Inc. (ABAT), Coffee Holding Co. Inc. (JVA)

Friday (September 18)

Economic: Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization, Leading Economic Indicators (LEI), Quadruple Witching (Quarterly Futures & Options Expiration)
Earnings: VinFast Auto Ltd. (VFS)

Everything you just read is what we do every single day at Sonderberg Research. The difference is timing and depth.

By the time analysis like this reaches a newsletter, the move has often already started. My private clients don't wait. They get:

If you're managing $100K+ and you're done reacting emotionally to a market that punishes hesitation, let's talk.

On a private Strategy Call, we'll map exactly where you are in this cycle, the 3 institutional signals that flag the top before retail sees it, and where your portfolio is currently exposed.

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Kind regards,
Diego Sonderberg

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