“The public buys the most at the top and the least at the bottom.”
— Bob Farrell

Bitcoin Analysis

Enjoy the next few days and weeks, because in my view this is likely the final upside phase before the next major leg lower.

Bitcoin can still move higher in the short term, and altcoins may follow as part of the last move within Stage 4 of the bear market, the Meat Grinder phase. This is the phase designed to create false hope, trap late buyers and exhaust both sides before the real capitulation begins.

Soon, I expect Bitcoin to enter Stage 5, the final capitulation phase. That is where the move lower becomes violent, fast and emotionally difficult for most investors. My expectation remains that Bitcoin will eventually move into the $45,000 area, where the real bottoming process can begin.

At Sonderberg Research, we are prepared for this scenario. We have already started building our short setup, with the exact strategy shared only with clients. In parallel, we are working on another asymmetric Bitcoin strategy that could offer a 2.5x to 6x opportunity over the next few months if the setup plays out as expected. This could become one of the most lucrative Bitcoin moves of the entire cycle.

Economic Data, Rates & the Fed

This week’s economic data was led by a stronger than expected labor market report. U.S. employers added 115000 jobs in April versus 65000 expected, while March was revised higher to 185000. ADP also surprised to the upside with 109000 private payrolls, the strongest reading since January 2025. The unemployment rate held steady at 4.3%, job openings remained stable, and weekly jobless claims stayed low despite rising from a 50 year low. The labor market therefore still looks resilient, although the Information sector continues to weaken with 16 consecutive months of job losses. Outside of labor, services remained in expansion, factory orders beat expectations, new home sales rose strongly, and the Atlanta Fed GDPNow estimate moved back up to 3.7%, supported by consumer spending and investment. The main weakness came from consumer sentiment, which fell to a record low of 48.2, reflecting pressure from high prices and concerns around personal finances.

Treasury yields ended the week little changed after initially moving higher, with the curve flattening modestly. Markets continue to move slightly more toward the possibility of future Fed action, although conviction remains low. Current pricing shows higher odds of a potential policy move further out, while near term expectations remain cautious. The key takeaway is that the economy is still holding up better than sentiment suggests. Labor remains stable, consumer spending appears firm, and growth estimates are improving, but high prices, weak sentiment, and persistent pressure in rate sensitive sectors keep the macro backdrop fragile.

Economic: Existing Home Sales
Earnings: AECOM (ACM), AST SpaceMobile Inc. (ASTS), Barrick Mining Corp. (B), Circle Internet Group Inc. (CRCL), Constellation Energy Corp. (CEG), Figure Technology Solutions Inc. (FIGR), Fox Corp. (FOXA), ICON PLC (ICLR), Mosaic Co. (MOS), Ovintiv Inc. (OVV), Petroleo Brasileiro SA Petrobras (PBR), Simon Property Group (SPG)

Economic: Consumer Price Index CPI expected 3.7% YoY, previous 3.3%, Treasury Budget
Earnings: Aramark (ARMK), CAE Inc. (CAE), Ecopetrol SA (EC), Franco Nevada Corp. (FNV), JD.com (JD), Karman Holdings Inc. (KRMN), Nextpower Inc. (NXT), Oklo Inc. (OKLO), On Holding AG (ONON), PagSeguro Digital Ltd. (PAGS), Qnity Electronics Inc. (Q), Sea Ltd. (SE), Venture Global Inc. (VG)

Economic: Producer Price Index PPI expected 4.0% YoY, previous 4.0%, EIA Crude Oil Inventories, MBA Mortgage Applications Index

President Trump is scheduled to meet with President Xi Jinping in China on May 14 to 15
Earnings: Alibaba Group Holding Ltd. (BABA), Birkenstock Holdings PLC (BIRK), Celcuity Inc. (CELC), Cisco Systems Inc. (CSCO), Dynatrace Inc. (DT), Korea Electric Power Corp. (KEP), Nebius Group NV (NBIS), Takeda Pharmaceutical Co. (TAK), Tower Semiconductor Ltd. (TSEM), USA Rare Earth Inc. (USAR)

Economic: Business Inventories, Continuing Claims, EIA Natural Gas Inventories, Export Prices, Import Prices, Initial Claims, Retail Sales
Earnings: Applied Materials Inc. (AMAT), Brookfield Corp. (BN), Bullish (BLSH), Dillards Inc. (DDS), Credicorp Ltd. (BAP), Figma Inc. (FIG), KE Holdings Inc. (BEKE), NetEase Inc. (NTES), NU Holdings Ltd. (NU), Viking Holdings Ltd. (VIK)

Economic: Capacity Utilization, Empire State Manufacturing, Industrial Production
Earnings: Alumis Inc. (ALMS), Arrivent Biopharma Inc. (AVBP), Flowers Foods Inc. (FLO), H World Group Ltd. (HTHT), RBC Bearings Inc. (RBC), RLX Technology Inc. (RLX), Xpeng Inc. (XPEV)

Economic: Capacity Utilization, Empire State Manufacturing, Industrial Production
Earnings: Alumis Inc. (ALMS), Arrivent Biopharma Inc. (AVBP), Flowers Foods Inc. (FLO), H World Group Ltd. (HTHT), RBC Bearings Inc. (RBC), RLX Technology Inc. (RLX), Xpeng Inc. (XPEV)

If you manage a 6-figures or more portfolio, missed the top and want clarity with a structured timing system, make sure to watch my free training: https://sonderbergresearch.com/video

Kind regards,
Diego Sonderberg

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