This week confirmed the same message across Bitcoin, equities, macro policy, and geopolitics: risk assets remain fragile, the Fed is not ready to ease, and our focus stays on protecting capital now so we can deploy aggressively when the real bottoming signals appear.

Bitcoin Analysis

Bitcoin had a weak week, despite the beginning of the US Iran peace process and the broader market’s initial positive reaction to the headlines. While the S&P 500 immediately pumped after the news before still closing the shortened week in the red, Bitcoin did not show the same strength. That relative weakness is important. It tells us that there is still pressure across crypto, risk assets, and even traditional markets, but the weakness remains much more visible in Bitcoin and the broader crypto market.

From our framework, Bitcoin remains in Stage 5. We have already moved out of Stage 4, the meat grinder phase, and are now in Stage 5, the true capitulation phase. This is the stage where panic usually peaks, weak hands get flushed out, and the market moves into its final bottoming zone. This is also the stage where serious investors need to prepare, not emotionally react.

Our positioning remains disciplined. The short from around 82K is still open. We already took partial profits below 60K. In the short term, we are also watching for new trade setups as volatility increases. For long-term allocation, my base case remains that the most attractive buying opportunity will likely come over the next few months, with September to October still being my primary window and 45K-37K remaining a key area of interest.

That said, we are not married to a single prediction. Bitcoin can always move lower, and the bottoming move can also be front run. More people are now starting to expect a September or October bottom, and when too many participants focus on the same window, we have to stay careful. We do not buy simply because a date on the calendar matches our base case. We buy when our three core signals align: macro, sentiment, and technicals.

That is the discipline. The prediction gives us the map, but the signals decide the execution.

Traditional Markets & FOMC

The S&P 500 also closed the week in the red, although it initially reacted positively to the US Iran peace headlines. It was a shortened trading week due to the Friday holiday, but the most important event of the week was clearly the FOMC meeting.

As expected, the Fed left rates unchanged. There was no rate cut and no rate hike, which was already priced into the market. The decision itself was not the surprise. The important part was the message behind the decision and the updated projections.

Over the last few months, one of the main bullish narratives in crypto and risk assets was that the new Kevin Warsh-led Fed would quickly become dovish and lower rates. We never agreed with that view. If you listened to retail noise, it sounded convincing. But if you actually studied Warsh’s track record and followed the right institutional research, the conclusion was very different. Warsh was never clearly dovish. If anything, his framework has historically been more hawkish, more inflation-focused, and more concerned with preserving Fed credibility.

Now the market is starting to see that reality. The Fed left rates unchanged for the fourth consecutive meeting, and the vote was unanimous at 12 to 0. More importantly, nine out of 18 officials now expect at least one rate hike this year. That is not a dovish message. It confirms that inflation is still not where the Fed wants it to be and that the market was too optimistic in expecting an easy liquidity pivot.

The Fed also lowered its median 2026 US GDP projection from 2.4% to 2.2%. This does not mean the US economy is already in a recession, but it does point toward slower growth and rising stagnation risk. At the same time, headline PCE inflation is now projected to remain above target until 2028, while the Fed clearly stated that inflation remains elevated relative to its 2% goal.

This creates a difficult setup for risk assets. Growth is slowing, inflation remains sticky, and the Fed is not ready to ease. A significant part of the renewed inflation pressure has come through the energy shock connected to the Iran conflict, but the broader message is clear: the Fed is increasingly concerned about another inflationary impulse.

The FOMC meeting confirmed the regime we have been discussing for months. Markets wanted a dovish pivot, but they did not get one. Rates stayed unchanged, but the forward path is more hawkish than retail expected.

This is why we continue to treat rallies with caution. The Fed is not signaling panic, but it is also not giving risk assets the easy liquidity narrative that many investors were hoping for. Until inflation pressure fades, growth stabilizes, and liquidity conditions improve, Bitcoin, crypto, and other risk assets remain vulnerable.

The key takeaway is simple. The market was positioned for hope, but the Fed delivered discipline. That is not the environment where we blindly chase rallies.

US Iran Peace Deal

The US Iran peace framework is promising in the sense that a bad peace is still better than a major war. From a market perspective, however, the details matter. The deal appears to include a 300 billion dollar investment framework, but at this stage it is still not fully clear how that structure will work. It may involve public money, private capital, government-backed financing, or a combination of different mechanisms. We will need more clarity over the coming days and throughout the 60-day negotiation window.

The larger question is what this deal means strategically. On the surface, it can look like the US gave up leverage. Iran gained room to negotiate, the region remains fragile, and the Gulf states appear more exposed than before. I am not going to turn this into a political argument, but from an incentive standpoint, there is another side that needs to be considered.

During this period, the United States became the world’s largest oil exporter when crude and refined fuels are counted together. Reuters reported that US crude and fuel exports reached around 10.5 million barrels per day in May 2026, making America the top global exporter for the third month in a row. Russia was around 7 million barrels per day, while Saudi Arabia stood around 5.9 million barrels per day.

This does not prove that weakening Gulf flows was the direct strategy. But it does show the incentive structure. The conflict and the pressure around the Strait of Hormuz disrupted traditional energy flows, while US shale, Gulf Coast export infrastructure, refined product exports, and strategic reserve releases allowed the United States to gain energy market share.

So the more balanced view is this: Iran may have gained negotiation leverage, the Gulf states may have become more exposed, and the United States may have strengthened its position as a dominant energy exporter. From a market perspective, this matters because energy is the transmission mechanism. If oil stays elevated, inflation pressure remains higher for longer. If inflation stays elevated, the Fed cannot ease aggressively. And if the Fed cannot ease, Bitcoin and risk assets remain under pressure.

Next Week

Next week is lighter, but still important. The main data points will be PCE prices and University of Michigan consumer sentiment. We also have a few earnings reports, although macro data remains the primary focus for markets.

The market will be watching whether inflation pressure continues to show up in the data and whether consumer sentiment starts to weaken. These releases matter because they feed directly into the Fed’s reaction function. If inflation remains sticky and the consumer weakens at the same time, the market will have to deal with the risk of slower growth without the immediate support of easier monetary policy.

For us, the plan remains unchanged. We are still positioned carefully, we are still holding shorts, and we are still preparing to buy Bitcoin and equities at far more attractive prices. The goal is not to predict every candle. The goal is to survive the noise, stay disciplined, take profits when the market gives them, and deploy capital only when the bottoming signals align.

Economic: no reports
Earnings: American Resources Corp. (AREC), Ennis Inc. (EBF), Fervo Energy Co. (FRVO), ICON PLC (ICLR), Outdoor Holding Company (POWW)

Economic: no reports
Earnings: Carnival Corp. (CCL), Cerebras Systems Inc. (CBRS), FedEx Corp. (FDX), KB Home Inc. (KBH), Korn Ferry (KFY)

Economic: Current Account Balance, EIA Crude Oil Inventories, MBA Mortgage Applications Index, New Home Sales
Earnings: Daktronics Inc. (DAKT), H.B. Fuller Company (FUL), Jefferies Financial Group Inc. (JEF), Levi Strauss and Co. (LEVI), NovaGold Resources Inc. (NG), Micron Technology Inc. (MU), Trip.com Group Ltd. (TCOM)

Economic: Continuing Claims, Durable Goods, EIA Natural Gas Inventories, Q2 GDP Third Estimate, Initial Claims, PCE Prices, Personal Income, Personal Spending
Earnings: Acuity Inc. (AYI), BlackBerry Ltd. (BB), Commercial Metals Inc. (CMC), Darden Restaurants Inc. (DRI), Enerpac Tool Group Corp. (EPAC), FedEx Freight Holding Company (FDXF), Lindsay Corp. (LNN), McCormick and Company (MKC), TD SYNNEX Corp. (SNX), Winnebago Industries Inc. (WGO)

Economic: Advanced International Trade in Goods, Advanced Retail Inventories, Advanced Wholesale Inventories, University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment
Earnings: Apogee Enterprises Inc. (APOG)

The read above is the kind of analysis I run 1:1. On a private Strategy Call we'll map where you are in this cycle, the 3 signals that flag the top before retail does, and where your portfolio is exposed. For investors managing $100K+ who want a clear, unemotional plan. Apply here: https://sonderbergresearch.com/

Kind regards,
Diego Sonderberg

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