Bitcoin's next major move could define the rest of this cycle, and the roadmap may surprise most investors.

This week ultimately developed constructively across financial markets. After beginning on a weaker note, risk sentiment recovered and the S&P 500 finished the week positively, closing just below its record high. The economic calendar itself was relatively light, but developments surrounding Bitcoin, oil, geopolitical risk and the Federal Reserve created an important setup heading into next week.

Our broader Bitcoin framework remains unchanged. Bitcoin continues to trade within Stage 5, the true capitulation phase of the cycle. This is typically the most emotionally difficult stage of a bear market, as leverage is removed, weaker participants are forced out and the market gradually moves toward its final accumulation zone.

Within that broader bearish structure, however, our institutional system recently flagged a tactical long opportunity around $58,000. Bitcoin is currently trading near $64,000, putting the original signal approximately 10% in profit without leverage. Several members also established positions around the $61,000 to $62,000 region and are now sitting on meaningful unrealized gains.

Bitcoin is now encountering initial resistance around $64,000, with the more important level located near $65,000. A confirmed break and successful retest of $65,000 would strengthen the short-term bullish case and increase the probability of an extension higher to $72,000. However, the path would not be clear of resistance, with additional hurdles around $68,000 and $70,000.

The liquidation heat map also continues to show substantial liquidity above the current price. These overhead liquidity clusters may act as magnets for price and support another short-term advance before the broader Stage 5 decline resumes.

This remains a tactical opportunity rather than confirmation of a new bull market. The system allows us to trade the market that is directly in front of us without abandoning the larger cycle framework.

Bitcoin’s behavior around the 200-week moving average remains technically constructive. Price initially closed below the moving average, subsequently reclaimed it and is now attempting to record another weekly close above it.

Historically, Bitcoin rebounded from this area during the 2014 and 2018 bear markets before eventually beginning a new bull cycle. The major exception was 2022, when Bitcoin traded approximately 35% below the 200-week moving average before forming its final bottom.

Holding above this level is therefore positive, but it does not prove that the next bull market has already begun. A retest remains possible and I continue to believe that further weakness is likely before the true macro bottom forms.

My broader target range remains approximately $30,000 to $45,000, with the $37,000 region representing my current base case. Another decline of 30% to 40% from present levels remains possible.

We will not accumulate blindly simply because Bitcoin reaches one predetermined price. Our decisions will continue to depend on the alignment of our three-signal framework: macroeconomic conditions, market sentiment and technical confirmation. The facts can change, and our positioning must adapt when they do.

Oil remained one of the most important macro themes this week as renewed tensions between the United States and Iran increased concerns surrounding shipping through the Strait of Hormuz.

Crude prices fluctuated significantly during the week before easing on Friday. WTI finished near $71.41 per barrel and gained almost 4% over the week, while Brent closed around $76.01 and gained approximately 5.5%.

Markets appear to be becoming more selective in how they respond to each ceasefire announcement, renewed threat or military development. The most important issue is not each individual headline, but whether commercial vessels can continue moving through the Strait of Hormuz.

Recent attacks and slower tanker traffic remain concerning, but shipping has not stopped completely. A sustained or severe disruption to the flow of energy through the Strait would likely produce materially higher oil prices than those currently being observed.

For now, the oil market is still pricing a geopolitical risk premium, but not a complete breakdown in global energy flows.

The minutes from the June Federal Reserve meeting were released this week and reinforced the central bank’s concerns surrounding persistent inflation.

Policymakers noted that inflation had moved higher and remained well above the Fed’s 2% objective. Participants continued to view inflation risks as tilted to the upside, with tariffs, energy prices, supply disruptions and strong investment-related demand contributing to broader price pressure. A few participants believed there was already a case for raising rates, although the Committee ultimately voted to leave policy unchanged.

The minutes strengthened the view that monetary policy may remain restrictive for longer and increased attention on the possibility of another rate hike. September is becoming an increasingly important meeting to monitor, although the incoming inflation and labor-market data will determine whether a hike ultimately becomes justified.

The main market event next week will be the June Consumer Price Index report, scheduled for Tuesday, July 14, at 8:30 a.m. Eastern Time.

May headline CPI accelerated to 4.2% year over year, its highest reading in approximately three years, while Core CPI increased to 2.9%. The current expectation is for headline inflation to moderate toward approximately 3.9%, while Core CPI is expected to remain near 2.9%.

A hotter-than-expected report would strengthen the case for a September rate hike and would likely place pressure on Bitcoin, equities and other risk assets. A cooler report would ease immediate tightening concerns and could support another short-term market advance.

Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh will also deliver his semiannual monetary-policy testimony before Congress next week.

He is scheduled to appear before the House Financial Services Committee on Tuesday, July 14, at 10:00 a.m. Eastern Time, followed by testimony before the Senate Banking Committee on Wednesday, July 15, at 10:00 a.m.

Given his recent hawkish posture, markets will closely examine his language regarding inflation, future rate decisions and potential reforms to the Federal Reserve. Even small changes in tone could affect expectations for September and the remainder of the year.

The Producer Price Index will be released on Wednesday, July 15, at 8:30 a.m. Eastern Time, one day after CPI. It will offer another important reading on the cost pressures facing businesses and producers.

Headline PPI increased 6.5% year over year in May. Expectations currently point toward a modest moderation to approximately 6.2%, while the monthly core reading is expected to remain relatively sticky.

The combination of CPI, PPI and Chairman Warsh’s testimony could make next week highly volatile across equities, bonds, currencies and cryptocurrencies.

The short-term market picture remains constructive. Our institutional system’s Bitcoin long from approximately $58,000 continues to perform well, Bitcoin is testing major resistance, and the S&P 500 remains close to record territory.

However, the larger Bitcoin framework has not changed. Bitcoin remains in Stage 5, and I continue to expect another significant decline before the true macro bottom and long-term accumulation opportunity are confirmed.

Next week’s inflation data and Chairman Warsh’s testimony will be critical. For now, our approach remains the same: trade the opportunities identified by the system, respect major resistance levels and remain disciplined as we move closer to the final accumulation phase.

Economic: Treasury Budget
Earnings: FB Financial Corp. (FBK), Grupo Aeromexico SAB de CV

Economic: Consumer Price Index CPI (Headline expected to cool down to 3.9%, Core at 2.9%), Net Long-Term TIC Flows
Earnings: Aehr Test Systems (AEHR), Bank of America Corp. (BAC), Citigroup Inc. (C), Fastenal Co. (FAST), Goldman Sachs Group Inc. (GS), JPMorgan Chase and Co. (JPM), Wells Fargo and Co. (WFC)

Economic: Producer Price Index PPI (Headline expected to cool down to 6.2%), EIA Crude Oil Inventories, Empire State Manufacturing, MBA Mortgage Applications Index
Earnings: ASML Holding NV (ASML), Bank of New York Mellon Corp. (BNY), BlackRock Inc. (BLK), Cintas Corp. (CTAS), Elevance Health Inc. (ELV), J.B. Hunt Transport Services Inc. (JBHT), Johnson and Johnson (JNJ), Kinder Morgan Inc. (KMI), Morgan Stanley (MS), PNC Financial Services Group (PNC), Progressive Corp. (PGR), United Airlines Holdings (UAL)

Economic: Business Inventories, Continuing Claims, EIA Natural Gas Inventories, Initial Claims, NAHB Housing Market Index, Pending Home Sales, Philadelphia Fed Index
Earnings: Abbott Laboratories (ABT), Alcoa Corp. (AA), Citizens Financial Group Inc. (CFG), GE Aerospace (GE), Intuitive Surgical (ISRG), Netflix Inc. (NFLX), Prologis Inc. (PLD), State Street Corp. (STT), Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing (TSM), UnitedHealth Group Inc. (UNH), US Bancorp (USB)

Economic: Building Permits, Capacity Utilization, Export Prices, Housing Starts, Import Prices, Industrial Production, University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Preliminary
Earnings: Autoliv Inc. (ALV), Fifth Third Bancorp (FITB), Regions Financial Corp. (RF), Travelers Companies Inc. (TRV), Truist Financial Corp. (TFC)

Everything you just read is what we do every single day at Sonderberg Research. The difference is timing and depth.

By the time analysis like this reaches a newsletter, the move has often already started. My private clients don't wait. They get:

If you're managing $100K+ and you're done reacting emotionally to a market that punishes hesitation, let's talk.

On a private Strategy Call, we'll map exactly where you are in this cycle, the 3 institutional signals that flag the top before retail sees it, and where your portfolio is currently exposed.

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Kind regards,
Diego Sonderberg

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