Bitcoin rejected key resistance, ETF inflows reached $731 million in one day, and next week’s inflation reports will decide the Fed’s next move.

Welcome to this week’s Sonderberg Market Outlook.

This was one of those weeks when the market changed its mind twice.

Weak private payroll data and softer comments from the Federal Reserve helped risk assets rally on Thursday. Then Friday’s official jobs report came in far stronger than expected.

Rate expectations reversed. Bond yields rose. Bitcoin fell back below $80,000 after testing the $82,000 area.

Let’s go through what changed and how I am positioning around it.

On Wednesday, ADP reported that private employers added only 38,000 jobs in August.

That pointed toward a softer labor market.

On Thursday, Fed Governor Christopher Waller said he would lean toward keeping rates unchanged if inflation continued to improve. He also made clear that he would consider a September hike if the next inflation report came in hot.

His comments pushed the market back toward a possible hold in September. Traders began placing more weight on a later hike.

That changed on Friday.

The official nonfarm payroll report showed that the economy added 162,000 jobs in August. The market expected roughly 55,000.

The unemployment rate stayed at 4.1%. Average hourly earnings rose 0.3% during the month.

June payrolls were revised from 20,000 to 31,000. July was revised from a loss of 23,000 jobs to a gain of 21,000.

Together, those revisions added 55,000 jobs to the previous estimates.

This was a much stronger report than the market expected.

After the report, the odds of a September rate hike rose from roughly 49% to around 62%.

The current Fed target range is 3.50% to 3.75%. One 25-basis-point hike would move it to 3.75% to 4.00%.

My base case remains a September hike. But it is far from settled.

Next week’s inflation reports will likely decide the outcome.

President Trump also increased his pressure on the Fed.

He threatened to stop trading with countries where the United States runs a trade deficit unless the Fed lowers rates.

I do not expect a broad trade cutoff to happen.

I view the statement mainly as negotiating pressure. We have seen large threats become much narrower policies before.

If such a broad cutoff did happen, it could disrupt supply chains and add to inflation. That would make lower rates even harder to deliver.

For now, this does not change my Fed view.

A September rate hike could create short-term pressure. But a hike alone would not end the bullish Bitcoin thesis.

The reason behind the hike matters.

If the Fed raises rates because the economy remains strong, markets may still support risk assets. Bitcoin can also keep moving higher if the hike is already priced in, the dollar stays below major resistance, and ETF demand remains strong.

This is why we do not trade one headline. We watch how the dollar, liquidity, yields, institutional flows, and Bitcoin’s market structure react together.

My current view is simple. A hike could cause volatility or a pullback, but that pullback could become another opportunity if the broader structure remains healthy. The real risk would be a more aggressive path of further hikes, a sharp rise in the dollar and real yields, or Bitcoin losing key long-term support.

That is the difference between reacting to the news and having a decision map before the news arrives.

Bitcoin briefly moved above its 50-week moving average and tested the major resistance area around $82,000.

It failed to hold the move.

The sudden Friday decline came as two pressures hit the market at the same time. Bitcoin rejected a major long-term resistance area, while the strong jobs report increased expectations for an earlier rate hike.

Bitcoin then fell back below $80,000.

The weekly candle remains open until Sunday, so the final weekly close will give us more information. For now, the market has not confirmed a clean breakout.

I am watching several possible paths from here.

The exact Bitcoin buy levels, sell areas, confirmation points, and invalidation rules are already mapped out inside Sonderberg Research. I will keep those numbers private.

Earlier this week, while Bitcoin was trading around $76,000, I told clients that a clean dip to $75,000 looked less likely.

Too many investors were waiting for the same level.

My view was that buyers would probably step in early and front-run it. Bitcoin found demand before giving the crowd the perfect entry it wanted.

Clients had this research while prices were still lower. That gave them time to consider the dip within their own plan instead of reacting after the rebound.

This is a common investor mistake.

People wait for the perfect price because they want certainty. If the market turns just before reaching that price, they hesitate. Once the market rallies, they suddenly feel safe and start chasing.

A good process prepares for more than one outcome.

U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded $730.8 million in net inflows on Thursday.

That was the largest daily inflow since January 14. BlackRock’s IBIT received about $454 million of the total.

The inflow happened on the same day Bitcoin pushed toward $82,000. It shows strong demand through U.S. funds, although it does not prove ETF buyers caused the full move.

This is still an important signal.

Large buyers returned as the market approached its main resistance area. The question now is whether that demand continues after Friday’s stronger jobs report.

The S&P 500 fell about 0.4% on Friday but still finished the week slightly higher.

The VIX ended near 14.2 and remains below 15.

A low VIX does not mean the market must crash. It does mean investors may be becoming too comfortable.

This is when I start reviewing risk more closely.

Inside Sonderberg Research, we are looking at where it may make sense to take profits on certain stock positions. The exact stocks, reduction areas, and timing will remain private because those decisions must fit within the full portfolio.

We previously identified Coinbase around $140 as an attractive area. We also highlighted Strategy below $90. Both have since moved meaningfully higher.

The important question now is how to manage those positions. That work remains inside the client inner circle.

At the start of every month, we check in with every Sonderberg Research client.

We completed those reviews this week.

I am happy to report that our clients are well invested and set up around their own goals, risk limits, and time horizons for the months and years ahead.

There is still much more work to come.

With several clients, we are now going deeper into their personalized strategy as their needs and market conditions change.

This personal work is a major part of Sonderberg Research. A market opinion alone is not enough. The research must connect to the client’s wider plan.

Each client remains in control of their own accounts and decisions.

U.S. stock markets are closed Monday, September 7, for Labor Day. Bitcoin and crypto will continue trading.

GameStop releases its complete quarterly results on Tuesday.

The more important earnings for the wider technology market arrive Thursday. Oracle and Adobe both report after the market closes.

The main macro events are:

Thursday, September 10: Producer Price Index at 8:30 a.m. ET.

Friday, September 11: Consumer Price Index at 8:30 a.m. ET.

Both headline and core inflation will matter.

If the inflation data comes in above expectations, that would be bearish for risk assets in the short term. A September hike would become more likely, and markets could begin pricing a second hike later in the year.

If inflation meets or falls below expectations, the chance of a September hold should rise. That could give Bitcoin another opportunity to test and break the $82,000 area.

The Fed meets on September 15 and 16.

There is rarely this much disagreement so close to a meeting. That means next week’s data may create large moves across bonds, the dollar, stocks, and crypto.

I remain constructive on Bitcoin over the broader cycle.

I am also prepared for short-term volatility.

A rate hike would not automatically make me bearish. I would become more cautious if higher rates came with a stronger dollar, rising real yields, weaker institutional demand, and a clear loss of Bitcoin’s long-term structure.

Those details matter more than the headline alone.

The exact plan for each outcome is already prepared inside Sonderberg Research.

Monday (September 7)

Economic: U.S. Markets Closed, Labor Day
Earnings: no reports

Tuesday (September 8)

Economic: NFIB Small Business Optimism Index, Consumer Credit
Earnings: Caseys General Stores Inc. (CASY), ServiceTitan Inc. (TTAN), GameStop Corp. (GME), Braze Inc. (BRZE), Academy Sports and Outdoors Inc. (ASO), ABM Industries Inc. (ABM), United Natural Foods Inc. (UNFI), InnovAge Holding Corp. (INNV), Mission Produce Inc. (AVO), Waterdrop Inc. (WDH), Dave and Busters Entertainment Inc. (PLAY), Canaan Inc. (CAN), Dynagas LNG Partners LP (DLNG), MIND Technology Inc. (MIND)

Wednesday (September 9)

Economic: MBA Mortgage Applications Index, Wholesale Inventories, EIA Crude Oil Inventories
Earnings: Synopsys Inc. (SNPS), Cooper Companies Inc. (COO), SailPoint Inc. (SAIL), Chewy Inc. (CHWY), Core and Main Inc. (CNM), AeroVironment Inc. (AVAV), Navan Inc. (NAVN), American Eagle Outfitters Inc. (AEO), Oddity Tech Ltd. (ODD), Oxford Industries Inc. (OXM), J.Jill Inc. (JILL), Lakeland Industries Inc. (LAKE), Destination XL Group Inc. (DXLG), Limoneira Company (LMNR), Nano-X Imaging Ltd. (NNOX)

Thursday (September 10)

Economic: Producer Price Index PPI expected 0.3% MoM, previous 0.0%, Core PPI previous 4.2% YoY, Initial Jobless Claims, EIA Natural Gas Storage
Earnings: Oracle Corp. (ORCL), Adobe Inc. (ADBE), Descartes Systems Group Inc. (DSGX), Signet Jewelers Ltd. (SIG), RH (RH), Shoe Carnival Inc. (SHOE), IBEX Limited (IBEX), Caleres Inc. (CAL), MasterCraft Boat Holdings Inc. (MCFT), Zumiez Inc. (ZUMZ), Designer Brands Inc. (DBI), Lovesac Company (LOVE), 1-800-Flowers.com Inc. (FLWS)

Friday (September 11)

Economic: Consumer Price Index CPI expected 3.4% YoY, previous 3.4%, Core CPI expected 0.2% MoM, previous 0.2%, University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index Preliminary, Monthly U.S. Federal Budget
Earnings: Kroger Co. (KR), Hooker Furnishings Corp. (HOFT), Rent the Runway Inc. (RENT), MoneyHero Ltd. (MNY)

Everything you just read is what we do every single day at Sonderberg Research. The difference is timing and depth.

By the time analysis like this reaches a newsletter, the move has often already started. My private clients don't wait. They get:

If you're managing $100K+ and you're done reacting emotionally to a market that punishes hesitation, let's talk.

On a private Strategy Call, we'll map exactly where you are in this cycle, the 3 institutional signals that flag the top before retail sees it, and where your portfolio is currently exposed.

No pitch. Just a clear, unemotional plan for your capital.

→ Apply for your Strategy Call: sonderbergresearch.com

Want my full story, track record and ledger? Visit diegosonderberg.com.

Kind regards,
Diego Sonderberg

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