Bitcoin hasn’t bottomed yet, and with growth slowing while inflation stays sticky, the next real opportunity will come from local bottom signals not narratives.

Bitcoin

I still expect Bitcoin to spend more time consolidating between the high $50Ks and the yearly open around $87.5K. A revisit of the yearly open would remain my preferred spot to add to shorts, consistent with the broader bear-market view. Later this year, my base case is still a further 30-50% drawdown that takes prices below the 200 SMA, in line with prior cycle behavior.

Plenty of commentators are still pushing the idea that we have bottomed here, but my positioning hasn’t changed: I called the top and leaned short when the weekly and monthly divergences were in place. The key is separating structured macro/market work from narrative-driven takes. More people are now believing the September/October bottom window I’ve been flagging since September 2025, but once a view gets crowded it can get front-run, so we’ll prioritize real-time bottom signals over a fixed date.

Economic Data, Rates & the Fed

Last week’s economic data leaned bearish overall. Q4 GDP came in at 1.4% versus 2.5 percent expected, and even adjusting for the estimated 1% drag from the government shutdown, growth still undershot forecasts. S&P Flash PMI readings declined to multi month lows, with the composite index falling to 52.3 and manufacturing and services both softening. The Atlanta Fed revised its Q1 GDP estimate down to 3.1% from 3.6%. At the same time, PCE inflation surprised to the upside, with headline and core both rising 0.4% month over month and core accelerating to 3.0% year over year. The January FOMC minutes carried a relatively hawkish tone, showing division among policymakers and suggesting that a pause remains appropriate unless inflation improves meaningfully. On the positive side, weekly jobless claims fell to 206’000, well below expectations, indicating that labor market stress is not yet accelerating.

Treasury yields ended the week higher across the curve despite intraweek volatility, reflecting hotter inflation data and fading rate cut optimism. Two year yields rose around 7 basis points while ten and thirty year yields climbed roughly 4 basis points. Rate cut expectations dropped sharply, with March odds falling to 5 percent, April to 18 percent, and June to 57%. Markets are now pricing a more patient Federal Reserve, with easing pushed further out unless inflation cools more convincingly. The combination of slower growth, sticky inflation, and reduced rate cut probabilities keeps the macro backdrop cautious and increases sensitivity to upcoming inflation and labor data.

Economic: Factory Orders, Fed Governor Christopher Waller speaks
Earnings: BWX Technologies Inc. (BWXT), Diamondback Energy Inc. (FANG), Dominion Energy Inc. (D), Domino's Pizza Inc. (DPZ), Keysight Technologies Inc. (KEYS), ONEOK Inc. (OKE), Woodside Energy Group Ltd. (WDS)

Economic: Consumer Confidence, Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee speaks, Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic speaks, Fed Governor Lisa Cook speaks, Wholesale Inventories, S&P Case-Shiller Home Price Index, President Trumps State of the Union Address 9.00 p.m. ET
Earnings: Alibaba Group Holding Ltd. (BABA), American Tower Corporation (AMT), Axon Enterprises Inc. (AXON), Constellation Energy Corp. (CEG), EOG Resources Inc. (EOG), Home Depot Inc. (HD), MercadoLibre Inc. (MELI), NRG Energy Inc. (NRG), Realty Income Corp. (O), Workday Inc. (WDAY)

Economic: Richmond Fed President Tom Barkin speaks, EIA Crude Oil Inventories
Earnings: Bank of Montreal (BMO), Diageo PLC (DEO), HEICO Corp. (HEI), HSBC Holdings PLC (HSBC), Lowes Companies Inc. (LOW), NVIDIA Corp. (NVDA), Nu Holdings Ltd. (NU), Salesforce Inc. (CRM), Snowflake Inc. (SNOW), Synopsys Inc. (SNPS), TJX Companies Inc. (TJX)

Economic: Continuing Claims, EIA Natural Gas Inventories, Initial Claims
Earnings: Argenx SE (ARGX), Autodesk Inc. (ADSK), Baidu Inc. (BIDU), Cheniere Energy Inc. (LNG), CoreWeave Inc. (CRWV), Dell Technologies Inc. (DELL), Intuit Inc. (INTU), Monster Beverage Corp. (MNST), Royal Bank of Canada (RY), Sempra (SRE), Toronto Dominion Bank (TD), Vistra Corp. (VST)

Economic: Construction Spending, Producer Price Index PPI
Earnings: BrightSpring Health Services (BTSG), Chart Industries Inc. (GTLS), Enel Chile S.A. (ENIC), Frontline PLC (FRO), Pearson PLC (PSO), Sociedad Quimica y Minera de Chile S.A. (SQM), TXNM Energy Inc. (TXNM)

If you manage a 6-figures or more portfolio, missed the top and want clarity with a structured timing system, make sure to get my free training:
https://sonderbergresearch.com/video

Kind regards,
Diego Sonderberg

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