The last weeks before the next big move in the markets.

Bitcoin Analysis

Bitcoin is currently sitting at a decisive point between Stage 4 and Stage 5 of the bear market.

The next few days should provide much more clarity on whether the market remains in a prolonged redistribution phase, or whether it is preparing to enter the final capitulation stage.

The key level remains $60K. A decisive loss of this area would strongly confirm the transition into Stage 5, which represents the final capitulation phase of the bear market.

Until then, we still need to respect the possibility of one more move above $80K, potentially toward the $85K region.

A move lower into the $74K area first would not be surprising. There is meaningful liquidity in this zone, and it could serve as an important retest area before another upside attempt.

In simple terms, a flush into $74K followed by a move back above $80K would fit the current structure well. It would take liquidity below, rebuild short term momentum, and likely create even more liquidity above the $80K level before the next major decision point.

For now, patience is key. The market is approaching an important confirmation zone, but the structure has not yet fully resolved.

Economic Data, Rates & the Fed

Last week’s economic data was relatively light, but the S&P PMI reports showed an important split. Manufacturing strengthened significantly, with the S&P Manufacturing PMI rising to 55.3, the highest reading since May 2022. However, the inflation components inside the report were the real concern, as input prices jumped to 79.5 and output prices reached their highest level since September 2022. Services softened slightly to 50.9 but remained in expansion. Consumer sentiment continued to deteriorate, falling to 44.8 as households remained pressured by inflation, uncertainty and the cost of living. Housing data was relatively stable, jobless claims stayed subdued near 209000, and the Atlanta Fed GDPNow estimate for Q2 was revised sharply higher to 4.3%, suggesting growth remains stronger than sentiment implies.

Treasury yields stabilized after the recent surge, but the curve flattened as 2 year yields rose toward a 52 week high while longer term yields eased. Market expectations shifted further toward a more hawkish Fed path, likely driven by the inflation pressure inside the manufacturing data and Kevin Warsh being sworn in as Fed Chair. Markets are now pricing a theoretical 100% probability of a rate hike at the December FOMC meeting, compared to 62% last Friday. The key takeaway is that growth is still holding up, inflation pressure is reappearing in key areas, and the Fed may have less room to ease than markets previously hoped.

Economic: no reports
Earnings: JOYY Inc. (JOYY), Fathom Holdings Inc. (FTHM)

Economic: Consumer Confidence, FHFA Housing Price Index, S and P Case-Shiller Home Price Index
Earnings: AutoZone Inc. (AZO), Banco BBVA Argentina SA (BBAR), Box Inc. (BOX), Champion Homes Inc. (SKY), CSW Industries Inc. (CSW), Elbit Systems Ltd. (ESLT), Ituran Location and Control Ltd. (ITRN), Modine Manufacturing Co. (MOD), Semtech Corp. (SMTC), Sociedad Quimica y Minera de Chile SA (SQM), VNET Group Inc. (VNET)

Economic: MBA Mortgage Applications Index, New Home Sales
Earnings: Abercrombie and Fitch Co. (ANF), Agilent Technologies Inc. (A), Bank of Montreal (BMO), Bank of Nova Scotia (BNS), Bath and Body Works Inc. (BBWI), Everpure Inc. (P), Dicks Sporting Goods Inc. (DKS), Dycom Industries Inc. (DY), HP Inc. (HPQ), Marvell Technology Inc. (MRVL), PDD Holdings Inc. (PDD), Salesforce Inc. (CRM), Snowflake Inc. (SNOW), Synopsys Inc. (SNPS)

Economic: Continuing Claims, Durable Goods, EIA Crude Oil Inventories, EIA Natural Gas Inventories, Q2 GDP Second Estimate, Initial Claims, PCE Prices, Personal Income, Personal Spending
Earnings: Autodesk Inc. (ADSK), Best Buy Co. Inc. (BBY), Burlington Stores Inc. (BURL), Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce (CM), Costco Wholesale Corp. (COST), Dell Technologies Inc. (DELL), Dollar Tree Inc. (DLTR), Futu Holdings Ltd. (FUTU), Gap Inc. (GAP), Hormel Foods Corp. (HRL), MongoDB Inc. (MDB), NetApp Inc. (NTAP), Okta Inc. (OKTA), Royal Bank of Canada (RY), Toronto Dominion Bank (TD)

Economic: Advanced International Trade in Goods, Advanced Retail Inventories, Advanced Wholesale Inventories, Chicago Purchasing Managers Index PMI
Earnings: Buckle Inc. (BKE), Chagee Holdings Ltd. (CHA), Genesco Inc. (GCO), NextTrip Inc. (NTRP)

Want to know what the next phase of this cycle actually looks like, and the 3 signals that flag the top before retail sees it?
Watch the free training and, if you manage 6-7 figures, apply for a 1:1 Strategy Call with me: https://sonderbergresearch.com/video

Kind regards,
Diego Sonderberg

Share this Outlook:
If you find these insights valuable, please share this newsletter with anyone who follows crypto or global markets. Since 2021 I’ve consistently identified major cycle tops and bottoms and aim to make this the most useful market-timing letter you read each week.
Share the following link with friends and family: https://newsletter.sonderbergadvisory.com/

Learn more:
YouTube Channel
X Account