Has the crypto bull run begun or is this just another bull trap?

Welcome to this week’s market recap.

I wanted to wait a little longer than usual before publishing this because this weekly close matters, especially for crypto.

The market has changed quickly over the last few weeks. Bitcoin has recovered sharply, Ethereum is showing relative strength, sentiment has moved back into greed and capital is returning to crypto.

That is constructive.

But this is also exactly where investors tend to make the next mistake.

Bitcoin has reclaimed the Bull Market Support Band and is trading around several important higher-timeframe indicators. The weekly RSI has also recovered above the 50 area.

From a technical perspective, this is a major improvement.

However, I am still separating a potentially bullish market from a confirmed bull market.

Could the next bull market already have started? Yes.

Do I think we have enough evidence to call it technically confirmed? Not yet.

There is a specific structural level I now want Bitcoin to reclaim before I become substantially more confident that the larger trend has changed.

Sonderberg Research Members

Bull-market confirmation level: $82K resistance, 50W MA and 50 EMA
BTC reduction area: █████████
BTC accumulation area: █████████
Potential short setup: █████████
Invalidation: █████████

Those levels, together with how we would change exposure around them, are part of the current Sonderberg Research positioning plan.

The important point for everyone else is not the exact number.

It is the behavior around it.

Only a few weeks ago, Bitcoin was trading below the 200-week moving average. Sentiment was weak. Investors were nervous. Many were still waiting for lower prices.

That was when we started accumulating.

We also identified the macro long around $58,500, which performed extremely well as Bitcoin recovered.

I kept repeating the same thing at the time: do not overthink it.

You did not need to know the exact bottom. You needed a process that allowed you to begin taking risk while everyone else was still waiting for certainty.

Now the situation is different.

Price is much higher. Sentiment is much stronger. People who did not want Bitcoin around $60,000 are suddenly becoming interested again.

This is how the cycle repeats.

Investors wait until the market makes them feel safe. By the time they finally feel safe, the risk/reward has often changed considerably.

For someone managing a six or seven-figure portfolio, repeating this pattern can become extremely expensive over time.

The lesson is not to chase Bitcoin now because you missed the lower prices.

The lesson is to stop requiring certainty before making every investment decision.

The daily RSI has also shown a very strong momentum expansion.

When Bitcoin pushes deeply into overbought territory after a long period of weakness, that is not automatically bearish. Historically, strong momentum bursts can also appear during the early stages of major bullish moves.

That is another constructive signal.

But again, one indicator is not enough.

Macro matters. Structure matters. Sentiment matters.

That is why we look at all three together.

Our job is not to become bullish because price went up.

Our job is to identify when the evidence changes before the emotional crowd catches up.

Ethereum has also performed very well, and ETH/BTC has continued to strengthen.

That matters because it tells us Ethereum is outperforming Bitcoin during this part of the move.

I have been watching this relative strength since June.

If ETH/BTC continues strengthening while Bitcoin confirms its larger structure, it could become an important sign that capital is beginning to move further out on the risk curve.

We already have defined levels for how we are handling Ethereum.

Sonderberg Research Members

ETH accumulation area: █████████
ETH profit-taking area: █████████
ETH/BTC trigger: █████████
Position-sizing plan: █████████

I am intentionally keeping the exact execution plan private.

The public takeaway is simpler.

Ethereum is showing strength. That does not mean we chase it after a large move.

The Crypto Fear & Greed Index has moved firmly back into greed.

That is a major change from where sentiment stood only recently.

Again, greed does not mean the market has to fall tomorrow. During strong bull markets, greed can remain elevated for long periods.

But I become much more careful when sentiment changes this quickly.

A few weeks ago, people were scared.

Now they are afraid of missing out.

Same market. Different price. Completely different emotion.

This is one of the biggest reasons investors consistently struggle with timing.

Their conviction often follows price.

Price falls and conviction disappears.

Price rises and conviction comes back.

Professionals try to do the opposite. They build the plan before emotion reaches an extreme.

Spot Bitcoin ETF flows were also very strong this week, with roughly $1.9 billion of net inflows.

Ethereum ETFs also attracted significant capital.

That is constructive because the move is not being driven purely by leveraged traders or retail speculation.

Real capital is coming back into the market.

But there is an important distinction here.

Strong ETF inflows make me more constructive on the market.

They do not automatically make current prices attractive entries.

Those are two completely different questions.

Coinbase has been one of the better positions during this move.

We accumulated COIN around $140.

The stock finished the week around $186, meaning the position has appreciated by over 30% from our entry area.

That is exactly the type of move where discipline becomes important.

It is very easy to become more bullish after something goes up 30%.

But we bought when the risk/reward was better.

There is no pressure to chase after the move.

There is also nothing wrong with taking some profits into strength.

We already have the next Coinbase levels mapped out internally, including where I would become interested again after a correction.

The bigger lesson is this: even if we have entered a new bull market, corrections will still happen.

Bull markets do not move straight up.

Sometimes the healthiest thing the market can do after a large rally is correct.

Another thing I am watching closely is where retail attention currently sits.

A large amount of attention remains focused on AI, semiconductors and technology.

Meanwhile, crypto has suddenly become one of the strongest areas of the market.

That creates an interesting situation.

If Bitcoin and Ethereum continue higher, I would not be surprised to see retail capital rotate back into crypto.

But retail usually arrives late.

The same investors who wanted nothing to do with Bitcoin near $60,000 may become extremely bullish after another major move higher.

That does not mean they will be wrong about the larger bull market.

They may simply enter at the wrong point inside that bull market.

And this is where investors often get washed out.

They miss the attractive entry.

They chase after the rally.

The market corrects.

They panic.

Then they sell.

The cycle starts again.

Over the last few weeks, I have also changed how I am structuring my own portfolio.

I am now working with four major allocation buckets of roughly 25% each.

One of those four buckets is crypto.

The remaining 75% is allocated across three other areas where I believe the next several months offer attractive opportunities.

That portfolio structure, the assets inside each allocation and the conditions that would cause me to rebalance them are now part of the research we are working with inside Sonderberg Research.

The important principle is that I do not view crypto in isolation.

There is always capital moving somewhere.

Sometimes crypto leads.

Sometimes equities lead.

Sometimes commodities lead.

Sometimes cash itself is the correct position.

Your job is not to remain loyal to one asset class.

Your job is to allocate capital where the evidence is strongest.

Traditional markets were weaker this week.

The S&P 500 and Nasdaq both corrected, with technology stocks under more pressure.

That is also why taking profits when volatility was extremely low made sense.

When the VIX trades near very low levels and investors become comfortable, the risk/reward for taking some profits often improves.

We do not need to predict a crash.

We simply need to recognize when the market gives us an opportunity to reduce risk into strength.

That is a very different mindset from waiting until the correction has already happened.

The U.S. Dollar Index remains around the lower part of the long-term range we have been watching.

A weaker dollar is generally supportive for global liquidity and risk assets.

It does not guarantee higher Bitcoin or stock prices.

But within the broader macro picture, dollar weakness remains constructive.

Oil Is The Part I Am Watching Carefully

Oil continues to move higher.

That matters because energy eventually feeds into transportation, production costs, food and broader inflation.

If oil keeps rising, it could make the Federal Reserve’s job significantly more difficult.

The current rate environment is already restrictive.

If inflation begins accelerating again, the probability of another rate hike rises.

Markets have been leaning toward later in the year for another possible hike, but I continue to think September and October deserve close attention if energy prices remain elevated.

This is one reason I refuse to become blindly bullish because Bitcoin had one exceptional rally.

You always have to look at the entire system.

Crypto can look strong while another macro variable is quietly creating risk.

Next week brings another important set of economic data.

We will be watching GDP, PCE inflation, durable goods, consumer data and labor-market numbers.

PCE will be especially important because it remains one of the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation measures.

We also have Nvidia earnings.

That matters far beyond Nvidia itself because the company remains one of the central names behind the AI trade. Its earnings and guidance can influence semiconductors, the Nasdaq and broader risk appetite.

Federal Reserve communication will also remain important.

So next week gives us several potential catalysts at the same time while Bitcoin is sitting near important technical areas, oil is rising and equities have started correcting.

Economic: Chicago Fed National Activity Index
Earnings: no reports

Economic: ADP Weekly Employment Change, Philadelphia Fed Non Manufacturing Activity, Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index, New Home Sales, Consumer Confidence
Earnings: Intuit Inc. (INTU), Zoom Communications Inc. (ZM), Dicks Sporting Goods Inc. (DKS)

Economic: MBA Mortgage Applications Index, Personal Income and Spending, PCE and Core PCE, Durable Goods Orders, Q2 GDP Second Reading, Personal Consumption, Capital Goods Orders
Earnings: NVIDIA Corp. (NVDA), CrowdStrike Holdings Inc. (CRWD), Salesforce Inc. (CRM), Synopsys Inc. (SNPS), Veeva Systems Inc. (VEEV), HP Inc. (HPQ), Okta Inc. (OKTA), Standard Nuclear Inc. (STDN)

Economic: Trade Balance, Retail Inventories, Initial Jobless Claims, Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Activity
Earnings: Marvell Technology Inc. (MRVL), Autodesk Inc. (ADSK), Workday Inc. (WDAY), Dollar General Corp. (DG), Affirm Holdings Inc. (AFRM), Dollar Tree Inc. (DLTR)

Economic: Chicago PMI, University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment, Preliminary Benchmark Payrolls Revision
Earnings: Hub Group Inc. (HUBG), Hyperliquid Strategies Inc. (PURR)

Everything you just read is what we do every single day at Sonderberg Research. The difference is timing and depth.

By the time analysis like this reaches a newsletter, the move has often already started. My private clients don't wait. They get:

If you're managing $100K+ and you're done reacting emotionally to a market that punishes hesitation, let's talk.

On a private Strategy Call, we'll map exactly where you are in this cycle, the 3 institutional signals that flag the top before retail sees it, and where your portfolio is currently exposed.

No pitch. Just a clear, unemotional plan for your capital.

→ Apply for your Strategy Call: sonderbergresearch.com

Want my full story, track record and ledger? Visit diegosonderberg.com.

Kind regards,
Diego Sonderberg

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