“Set and forget. Play golf and relax.”

Bitcoin Market Update

Bitcoin had a fairly fragile week, breaking below the $74K level, which had previously acted as strong support.

Acceptance below this area would be bearish and would bring Bitcoin closer to our expected cycle bottom. In our view, Bitcoin is now entering Stage 5, the final capitulation phase of the bear market.

Our clients were prepared for this scenario weeks in advance, so this move did not come as a surprise. In fact, we are already positioned short from the $80K to $82K region, which has given us roughly 10% in profit so far.

I even told one client, “Set and forget. Play golf and relax.”

That is exactly what Sonderberg Research is about. Clear planning, early preparation, and calm execution when the market moves.

Bitcoin will follow the path. And on that path, we stay prepared, take our moves, and profit from the volatility.

Economic Data, Rates & the Fed

This week’s economic data delivered mixed signals for markets. On the bullish side, PCE inflation came in slightly cooler than expected on a monthly basis, Durable Orders were very strong, and the Chicago PMI surged to 62.7, its highest level in more than 4 years. At the same time, the annual inflation picture remains uncomfortable, with headline PCE at 3.8% and core PCE at 3.3%, both at multi year highs. Growth data also softened, as the second estimate for Q1 GDP was revised down to 1.6%, driven by weaker consumer spending and investment. Personal income was flat, new home sales disappointed, and the Atlanta Fed revised its Q2 GDPNow estimate lower to 3.8%, reflecting slower momentum in consumption and investment.

Treasury yields moved lower across the curve, largely following the decline in oil prices, while the curve steepened modestly. Market expectations around Fed policy shifted again, with rate hike expectations pushed further out as lower oil prices and optimism around a potential Iran war resolution reduced immediate inflation pressure. Markets now appear to be targeting March or April 2027 as the more likely window for a potential hike, instead of December or January as priced last week. The overall message is that inflation remains elevated, but easing energy pressure and signs of slower growth are giving markets some relief.

Economic: Construction Spending, ISM Manufacturing Index
Earnings: Credo Technology Group Holding Ltd. (CRDO), Hewlett Packard Enterprise Co. (HPE), Science Applications International Corp. (SAIC), Trip.com Group Ltd. (TCOM)

Economic: no reports
Earnings: Dollar General Corp. (DG), Donaldson Company Inc. (DCI), GitLab Inc. (GTLB), Oddity Tech Ltd. (ODD), Palo Alto Networks Inc. (PANW), Signet Jewelers Ltd. (SIG), Ulta Beauty Inc. (ULTA), Victorias Secret and Co. (VSCO)

Economic: ADP Employment Change, Business Inventories, EIA Crude Oil Inventories, Factory Orders, ISM Non Manufacturing Index, MBA Mortgage Applications Index
Earnings: Broadcom Inc. (AVGO), CrowdStrike Holdings Inc. (CRWD), Descartes Systems Group Inc. (DSGX), Five Below Inc. (FIVE), Macys Inc. (M), Medtronic PLC (MDT), Ollies Bargain Outlet Holdings Inc. (OLLI), PVH Corp. (PVH), Thor Industries Inc. (THO), Veeva Systems Inc. (VEEV)

Economic: Continuing Claims, EIA Natural Gas Inventories, Initial Claims, Productivity Revised, Unit Labor Costs Revised
Earnings: Argan Inc. (AGX), Brown Forman Corp. (BF/B), Caleres Inc. (CAL), Ciena Corp. (CIEN), Cooper Companies Inc. (COO), DocuSign Inc. (DOCU), Lululemon Athletica Inc. (LULU), Planet Labs PBC (PL), Rubrik Inc. (RBRK), Samsara Inc. (IOT), ServiceTitan Inc. (TTAN), Toro Co. (TTC)

Economic: Nonfarm Payrolls, Unemployment Rate, Average Hourly Earnings, Average Workweek, Consumer Credit
Earnings: ABM Industries Inc. (ABM), G-III Apparel Group Ltd. (GIII), Virco Manufacturing Corp. (VIRC)

Want to know what the next phase of this cycle actually looks like, and the 3 signals that flag the top before retail sees it?
Watch the free training and, if you manage 6-7 figures, apply for a 1:1 Strategy Call with me: https://sonderbergresearch.com/video

Kind regards,
Diego Sonderberg

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