Euphoria before the hammer.

Bitcoin Analysis (warning)

My broader outlook on Bitcoin has not changed. Price action this week unfolded largely in line with expectations and continues to support the framework I have outlined for months. Bitcoin remains in Stage 4 of the bear market cycle, the choppy and deceptive range bound phase I have discussed since January. This is the part of the cycle where markets generate false breakouts, failed recoveries, and repeated liquidity grabs on both sides. It is designed to exhaust participants emotionally and financially rather than provide a clean trend.

The recent relief rally fits that view precisely. Bitcoin pushed higher into the expected upside zones, including the $78,000 to $80,000 region, with liquidity still present higher up near $84,000 and even $85,500 in a more extended scenario. However, these moves should not be mistaken for the start of a new bull market. Structurally, the macro picture remains bearish and this rally is more consistent with a late stage bear market rebound than a sustainable reversal.

During the week, we began opening new short positions in the mastermind, with exact levels and strategy shared privately with clients. Our view is that Bitcoin is approaching a similar local topping structure to what we saw near $97,000 earlier in the year, where we also successfully shorted. The same applies to the $126,000 cycle top, where we identified the exhaustion signals early and positioned accordingly. Despite short term bullish sentiment returning on social media, the underlying macro backdrop has not changed.

Looking ahead, I continue to believe that Bitcoin has not bottomed at $60,000 and that the true cycle low will come materially lower. We are gradually moving toward Stage 5, the capitulation phase, where fear returns aggressively and the real bottoming process begins. This phase will likely coincide with a larger correction in the S&P 500 over the coming months, which could add further downside pressure to Bitcoin.

The key takeaway remains simple. Temporary upside within a bear market should not be confused with renewed strength. This environment continues to reward patience, discipline, and positioning with the broader cycle rather than chasing short term momentum. Altcoins remain especially vulnerable and could see severe downside once the broader risk off move accelerates.

You have been warned.

Economic Data, Rates & the Fed

Last week’s economic data showed resilient activity but rising inflation pressures beneath the surface. Retail sales rose 1.7% in March, above expectations, though a large part of the increase was driven by higher gasoline prices. Core retail sales also beat forecasts. Both manufacturing and services PMIs came in stronger than expected, suggesting continued business activity, but rising input and output prices indicate inflation concerns are building again. Consumer sentiment fell sharply to 49.8, weighed down by the Iran conflict and higher energy costs. The Atlanta Fed lowered its Q1 GDP estimate to 1.2%, pointing to slower growth momentum.

Treasury yields moved higher alongside oil prices, with the yield curve flattening modestly as inflation concerns resurfaced. Market expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts were pushed lower during the week. Odds of cuts later this year declined across multiple meetings, reflecting stronger economic data, higher energy driven inflation risks, and a more cautious policy outlook. The broader picture remains one of slowing growth, persistent price pressures, and a Fed likely to stay restrictive for longer than markets previously expected.

Economic: no reports

Earnings: Alliance Resource Partners LP (ARLP), Cadence Design Systems Inc. (CDNS), Celestica Inc. (CLS), Cincinnati Financial Corp. (CINF), Dominos Pizza Inc. (DPZ), Easterly Government Properties Inc. (DEA), Lakeland Financial Corp. (LKFN), Nucor Corp. (NUE), Public Storage (PSA), Ventas Inc. (VTR), Verizon Communications Inc. (VZ)

Economic: Consumer Confidence, FHFA Housing Price Index, S and P Case-Shiller Home Price Index, Two day FOMC meeting starts (no rate cut expected), policy decision and press conference Wednesday 2.00 ET

Earnings: American Tower Co. (AMT), Booking Holdings Inc. (BKNG), BP PLC (BP), Coca-Cola Co. (KO), Corning Inc. (GLW), Novartis AG (NVS), S and P Global Inc. (SPGI), Seagate Technology Holdings PLC (STX), Sherwin Williams Co. (SHW), Spotify Technology SA (SPOT), Starbucks Corp. (SBUX), Vale SA (VALE), United Parcel Service (UPS), Visa Inc. (V), Waste Management Inc. (WM), Welltower Inc. (WELL)

Economic: Advanced International Trade in Goods, Advanced Retail Inventories, Advanced Wholesale Inventories, Building Permits, Durable Goods, EIA Crude Oil Inventories, Housing Starts, MBA Mortgage Applications Index, New Home Sales

Earnings: AbbVie Inc. (ABBV), Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL), Amazon.com Inc. (AMZN), Amphenol Corp. (APH), Automatic Data Processing (ADP), Banco Santander SA (SAN), GSK PLC (GSK), General Dynamics Corp. (GD), KLA Corp. (KLAC), Meta Platforms Inc. (META), Microsoft Corp. (MSFT), Qualcomm Inc. (QCOM), Regeneron Pharmaceuticals Inc. (REGN), UBS Group AG (UBS)

Economic: Chicago Purchasing Managers Index PMI, Continuing Claims, EIA Natural Gas Inventories, Employment Cost Index, Q1 GDP Advanced, Initial Claims, PCE Prices, Personal Income, Personal Spending

Earnings: Agnico Eagle Mines Ltd. (AEM), Amgen Inc. (AMGN), Apple Inc. (AAPL), Bristol Myers Squibb Co. (BMY), Caterpillar Inc. (CAT), ConocoPhillips (COP), Eli Lilly and Co. (LLY), Mastercard Inc. (MA), Merck and Co. (MRK), Parker Hannifin Corp. (PH), SanDisk Corp. (SNDK), Western Digital Corp. (WDC)

Economic: Construction Spending, ISM Manufacturing Index

Earnings: AON PLC (AON), Ares Management Corp. (ARES), Chevron Corp. (CVX), Colgate Palmolive Co. (CL), Dominion Energy Inc. (D), Exxon Mobil Corp. (XOM), Linde PLC (LIN), NatWest Group PLC (NWG), TC Energy Corp. (TRP)

If you manage a 6-figures or more portfolio, missed the top and want clarity with a structured timing system, make sure to watch my free training: https://sonderbergresearch.com/video

Kind regards,
Diego Sonderberg

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