Bitcoin is showing a tactical long setup flagged by our institutional system, but the bigger Stage 5 capitulation framework remains intact, meaning the next rally may be the setup before the final major flush and accumulation opportunity.

This week delivered a constructive market environment across several major asset classes. Equities held up well, Bitcoin began to show a more favorable short-term structure, oil continued to ease, and the U.S. Dollar Index remains an important macro variable to watch. Overall, the market is not yet out of risk territory, but there are several important developments worth paying attention to.

The S&P 500 closed the week on a constructive note and continues to hold a broadly bullish structure. However, price has not yet confirmed a decisive higher high above the prior June peak, which means the market remains vulnerable to another pullback or retest of the recent higher-low structure.

For now, there is no reason to become overly defensive in the very short term, but my broader view remains unchanged: I still expect a correction later this year. That would also align with the broader Stage 5 capitulation framework we have been tracking in Bitcoin.

Bitcoin remains in Stage 5, the true capitulation phase of the cycle. This is the phase where panic peaks, weak hands get flushed out, leverage is removed, and the market moves closer to its final bottoming zone.

However, Stage 5 does not mean price has to move down in a straight line. Some of the best tactical opportunities inside a late-stage capitulation environment often come from sharp counter-trend rallies before the final flush lower.

Recently, our institutional system at Sonderberg Research flagged a long opportunity around the $58,000 region on Tuesday. This was not based on emotion, hope, or guessing. It came from the same framework we have used to identify several major Bitcoin opportunities in this cycle, including the $120,000 short, the $64,000 long toward $78,000, and the recent short setup near $82,000.

The signal was supported by bullish divergence across multiple higher timeframes, including the 12-hour, daily, 3-day, and weekly charts. At the same time, USDT dominance was showing bearish divergence, which is usually constructive for Bitcoin because falling stablecoin dominance often signals capital rotating back into risk assets.

The liquidation map also supported the setup. There is meaningful liquidity sitting just above the $65,000 area and again around the $74,000 region. Both of these levels are important resistance zones, which makes them key areas for price to test.

This is why the current roadmap remains clear: Bitcoin can push higher first, potentially toward the $65,000 region, and then possibly into the $72,000 to $74,000 range. My base case remains a move toward roughly $72,000, with $74,000 being the upper end of the target zone. A move toward $75,000 is possible, but I would consider that the absolute upper limit unless the structure changes materially.

To recap the current trade framework:

Our institutional system flagged the Bitcoin short near $82,000, which was almost perfectly timed. My average entry was around $81,000. We took profit below $60,000. That move delivered roughly 27% to 28% without leverage in less than one month, which was an excellent result.

We also still have the larger short from the $120,000 region, which remains one of the major cycle trades.

Now, the same system has flagged the tactical long setup from around $60,000. The reason this matters is simple: the system is not only designed to identify macro shorts or late-cycle downside. It is also designed to identify high-probability counter-trend opportunities when the market structure, divergence profile, stablecoin dominance, and liquidity map align.

That is exactly what happened here.

Bitcoin developed bullish divergence across the 12-hour, daily, 3-day, and weekly timeframes. USDT dominance showed bearish divergence at the same time. Liquidity was sitting above major resistance, especially above $65,000 and around $74,000. Together, these factors created a clear tactical long opportunity.

There are essentially two long opportunities in this structure.

The first was the more aggressive long from the lower area after the divergence appeared. That setup offered the potential for a larger move.

The second is the lower-risk validation trade, if validated. If Bitcoin flips the $65,000 region, retests it successfully, and confirms it as support, that could open the door for another move toward $72,000 to $74,000. This trade would have clearer invalidation and therefore a cleaner risk structure.

If Bitcoin does rally into the $72,000 to $74,000 zone, I will be watching closely for the next major short setup.

My current roadmap is that Bitcoin may move toward $65,000, retest that area, potentially flip it, push into the $72,000 to $74,000 region, and then begin the next major leg lower. That next move could take Bitcoin toward the low $50,000s and potentially the $45,000 range and below.

This would likely represent the violent Stage 5 capitulation move we have been discussing for a long time.

If this plays out into August, September, or October, the $45,000 region becomes a major area of interest for accumulation.

One reason we still need to be careful with the current long setup is the 200-week moving average. Bitcoin recently fell below it, and the current move could simply be a retest from below.

Historically, when Bitcoin loses the 200-week moving average, retests can happen, but they are not always sustained unless the market is entering a new bull cycle. I do not believe we are entering a new bull market yet.

That said, the technical structure in the short term is more bullish than bearish. The divergences, liquidity map, and USDT dominance structure all support a temporary upside move. But this should still be treated as a tactical trade, not as confirmation of a new bull market.

This week’s labor data showed further evidence that the U.S. labor market is losing momentum.

ADP Employment Change came in at roughly 98,000 jobs, below consensus expectations of around 120,000 and down from the previous month’s 122,000. Nonfarm Payrolls were even weaker, with the economy adding only around 57,000 jobs versus consensus expectations near 115,000. In addition, April and May payrolls were revised lower by a combined 74,000 jobs.

The unemployment rate slipped to 4.2%, which looks positive on the surface since consensus was looking for 4.3%. However, the decline was largely driven by people leaving the labor force. The labor force participation rate fell to 61.5%, its lowest level in five years.

So while we are not yet seeing major cracks in the labor market, the slowdown is becoming increasingly visible.

The market continues to price in the possibility of further rate hikes, with September remaining an important window to watch. The probability of additional hikes into 2027 has also been moving back and forth as markets digest the incoming economic data.

The key issue remains the Fed’s difficult position. If the labor market strengthens again, it gives the Fed more room to remain hawkish. If the labor market weakens significantly, rate hikes become less likely in theory, but inflation is still too high for the Fed to simply pivot easily.

This is the central tension in the market right now: slowing growth, but still-elevated inflation.

Crude oil has pulled back meaningfully and is now trading around levels last seen in mid-2025. This is a positive development for future inflation pressure, but lower crude prices do not immediately translate into lower consumer prices.

Gasoline usually rises like a rocket but falls like a feather. Historically, it often takes two to six weeks of sustained lower crude prices before retail gasoline prices fully adjust. Since crude has only been lower for a few weeks, consumers may need to wait another month or two before seeing the full impact at the pump.

Oil matters far beyond gasoline. It affects diesel, transportation, asphalt, fertilizers, kerosene, and many other parts of the economy. If crude remains lower, it should help ease inflation pressure over time, but the damage from the prior inflation impulse has already been done. That is why we still need to remain careful.

The U.S. Dollar Index remains one of the most important macro charts to monitor. It is currently back above the 100 level and still within its long-term channel.

A stronger dollar is generally bearish for risk assets, while a weaker dollar tends to support risk assets. The recent move above 100 is important, but markets often retest major levels before confirming direction.

A possible scenario is that DXY retests the 100 area, either holds it and moves higher, or rejects and breaks back below. This will matter significantly for Bitcoin, equities, and broader risk assets.

The short-term picture has improved, especially for Bitcoin. Our institutional system at Sonderberg Research recently flagged a clear long opportunity around the $60,000 region, supported by bullish divergence across the 12-hour, daily, 3-day, and weekly charts, bearish divergence on USDT dominance, and a significant liquidity cluster above the $65,000 and $74,000 resistance zones.

This is the same system that helped us identify the $120,000 short, the $64,000 long toward $78,000, and the recent short setup near $82,000.

However, the bigger picture remains unchanged. Bitcoin is still in Stage 5, and I still expect a final capitulation move before the true macro bottom is confirmed. The current rally, if it continues, should be treated as a tactical opportunity, not the start of a new bull market.

The plan remains the same: stay disciplined, follow the system, avoid emotional entries, and prepare for the accumulation opportunity when the final Stage 5 flush arrives.

Enjoy the weekend and happy 4th of July to those celebrating.

Economic: ISM Non Manufacturing Index
Earnings: Barnes and Noble Education Inc. (BNED), NovaBridge Biosciences (NBP), US Gold Corp. (USAU)

Economic: Trade Balance
Earnings: Enerpac Tool Group Corp. (EPAC), Kura Sushi USA Inc. (KRUS), Penguin Solutions Inc. (PENG), Saratoga Investment Corp. (SAR)

Economic: Consumer Credit, EIA Crude Oil Inventories, MBA Mortgage Applications Index, Wholesale Inventories
Earnings: AZZ Inc. (AZZ), Helen of Troy Ltd. (HELE), Immersion Corp. (IMMR), Levi Strauss and Co. (LEVI), PriceSmart Inc. (PSMT)

Economic: Continuing Claims, EIA Natural Gas Inventories, Existing Home Sales, Initial Claims
Earnings: Byrna Technologies Inc. (BYRN), Frequency Electronics (FEIM), Nurix Therapeutics Inc. (NRIX), PepsiCo Inc. (PEP), WD-40 Co. (WDFC)

Economic: no reports
Earnings: no reports

The read above is the kind of analysis I run 1:1. On a private Strategy Call we'll map where you are in this cycle, the 3 signals that flag the top before retail does, and where your portfolio is exposed. For investors managing $100K+ who want a clear, unemotional plan. Apply here: https://sonderbergresearch.com/

Kind regards,
Diego Sonderberg

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