Welcome to the weekly Velaris Trading Newsletter.
Brief Overview
What’s Coming in Week 12?
The FOMC meeting on Wednesday is the central event of the week. No interest rate change is expected, but Powell’s statements on the latest inflation trends and Trump’s economic policies (especially tariffs) will dictate market direction. High volatility is likely. Additionally, Nvidia’s GTC Conference begins, a key event for the tech sector.
Weekly Market Wrap:
Last week’s inflation data showed a decline, increasing expectations for a rate cut in June. However, market uncertainty remains high, as Trump’s economic measures could heighten recession risks. Hedge funds have been aggressively selling tech stocks, putting pressure on speculative assets.
Earnings Highlights:
This week, Tencent Music, Micron Technology, and Nike will report earnings. Additionally, updates from the Nvidia GTC Conference could introduce new developments in the AI industry.
What does week 12 bring?
Monday, March 17:
NY Empire State Manufacturing Index: Expected at -1.9, providing insight into industrial activity in New York.
NAHB Housing Market Index: Expected at 43, measuring sentiment in the housing sector.
Retail Sales MoM: Expected at 0.7%, indicating consumer spending trends.
Earnings Reports: Textron Inc. (TXT), Science Applications International Corp. (SAIC), Getty Images Holdings Inc. (GETY).
Tuesday, March 18:
Building Permits: Expected at 1.450M, an indicator of future construction activity.
Housing Starts: Expected at 1.375M, showing the pace of new residential construction.
Earnings Reports: KE Holdings Inc. (BEKE), Tencent Music Entertainment Group Inc. (TME), ZTO Express (ZTO), GDS Holdings Ltd. (GDS).
Wednesday, March 19:
FOMC Meeting & Interest Rate Decision: No rate change expected, but Powell’s statements on inflation and Trump’s trade policies will heavily impact the market. High volatility is anticipated.
Earnings Reports: General Mills (GIS), Ollie’s Bargain Outlet Holdings Inc. (OLLI), Signet Jewelers Ltd. (SIG), Five Below Inc. (FIVE).
Thursday, March 20:
Existing Home Sales: Expected at 3.92M, providing insight into housing demand.
Initial Jobless Claims: Expected at 224K, measuring the state of the labor market.
Philadelphia Fed Index: Expected at 12.1, reflecting business conditions in the Philadelphia region.
Earnings Reports: Darden Restaurants Inc. (DRI), FactSet Research Systems Inc. (FDS), Jabil Inc. (JBL), Nike Inc. (NKE), Micron Technology Inc. (MU), FedEx Corp. (FDX), Lennar Corp. (LEN).
Friday, March 21:
No significant economic reports.
Earnings Reports: Carnival Corp. (CCL), NIO Inc. (NIO).
IMPORTANT: The expectations of the respective economic data may change in the course of the week. They will be updated in the Discord and will be discussed in more detail.
Weekly Market Wrap
The past week was marked by significant volatility and rising uncertainty in financial markets. Although inflation showed signs of easing, concerns over a potential recession persisted, primarily due to the latest trade policies from the Trump administration.
Inflation Trends
Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for February showed a decline to 2.8%, slightly below the expected 2.9% and down from 3.0% in the previous month. Core CPI, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, also dropped to 3.1% (expected: 3.2%). These figures suggest that inflationary pressures are easing, which strengthens expectations for a potential Federal Reserve rate cut.
Labor Market
Initial jobless claims came in at 220K, slightly below the forecast of 225K, signaling continued strength in the labor market. A resilient labor market could make the Fed hesitant to lower interest rates too soon, as wage growth could sustain inflationary pressures.
Trade Policy & Market Reactions
Trump’s aggressive trade policies, including the introduction of new tariffs, have heightened recession fears. These measures have increased uncertainty in financial markets, prompting hedge funds to liquidate positions in tech stocks.
Risk-Off Sentiment in the Market:
The Fear & Greed Index remains in "Extreme Fear" territory, indicating high market caution.
The Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index dropped to 57.9 (expected: 63), reflecting growing concerns among consumers.
Geopolitical tensions and trade restrictions are adding to overall market uncertainty.
Our official trading Partner WEEX
We have an exclusive partnership with Weex. Through us you will benefit from a 0% Maker Fee and get a $30'000 Trading Bonus.
WEEX - Where new wealth is made!
WEEX x Velaris
Crypto & Market Outlook
This week will be dominated by the FOMC meeting on Wednesday. Powell’s remarks on inflation, interest rate policy, and Trump’s trade stance will be critical in shaping market sentiment. The consensus expectation is that Powell will maintain a cautious stance and avoid signaling an imminent rate cut.
Key Factors to Watch:
Tech Sector Under Pressure: Hedge funds continue liquidating positions, but Nvidia’s GTC Conference could provide short-term bullish catalysts if AI developments are promising.
Crypto Volatility: Uncertainty around an economic slowdown continue to impact sentiment.
Potential Market Movers This Week:
FOMC Meeting: If Powell maintains a hawkish tone or hints at inflation concerns, risk assets could face further downside.
Nvidia GTC Conference: If AI product announcements impress, tech stocks could see a short-term rebound.
Trump’s Trade Policies: Any new tariff announcements could increase global recession risks.
Conclusion
This week could be pivotal for market direction. The FOMC meeting will determine whether Powell keeps rate cut expectations intact or signals a prolonged restrictive stance. Meanwhile, Trump’s trade policies remain an unpredictable variable.
Key Takeaways:
FOMC Meeting in Focus: Powell’s comments will set the tone for risk assets.
Nvidia GTC Could Impact Tech Stocks: AI-related announcements may offer a bullish catalyst.
Recession Fears Remain: Tariffs could slow global growth.
Crypto Under Pressure: Regulatory risks and hedge fund selling continue to weigh on the market.
The markets are entering a highly critical phase. Stay sharp and prepared for volatility.
Here's to a successful week, and stay tuned for more weekly outlooks on the crypto and financial markets.
Best regards,
your Velaris Trading Team!
Membership
Telegram
Website
Support
This newsletter, this e-mail does not contain any financial advice.
Reply