Welcome to the weekly Velaris Trading Newsletter.
Brief Overview
What’s Coming in Week 14?
Markets enter April focused on inflation, employment, and economic resilience. After weak core PCE data and falling consumer sentiment, investors await labor reports and Powell’s Friday speech for signs of weakness. Geopolitical tensions and Trump’s tariff threats continue to pressure sentiment. This week’s key events include Wednesday’s Factory Orders, the ADP jobs report, and Trump’s new tariffs, all potential inflation triggers. With sticky inflation and mixed labor data, markets stay fragile heading into Nonfarm Payrolls and Powell’s remarks.
Weekly Market Wrap:
Markets struggled to hold early-week gains following weaker-than-expected confidence data and a hotter core PCE print. The S&P 500 initially rallied on optimism over Trump’s potential tariff flexibility but sold off into Friday, closing the week near session lows. Inflationary pressures remain persistent, and consumer sentiment is near multi-year lows, reflecting continued fragility in both traditional and crypto markets.
Earnings Highlights:
Only a handful of notable earnings this week, including Blackberry Ltd. (BB), UiPath Inc. (PATH), and Conagra Brands Inc. (CAG). Investors will focus on margins and forward guidance amid signs of weakening consumer demand.
What does week 14 bring?
Monday, March 31:
Chicago PMI expected at 45.4 (slightly lower than last month) indicating ongoing contraction in regional manufacturing.
Earnings Reports: Loar Holdings (LOAR), PVH Corp. (PVH)
Tuesday, April 1:
Construction Spending expected +0.2%, a modest uptick that could reflect ongoing resilience in the housing sector.
ISM Manufacturing Index expected at 50.3, indicating slight expansion.
JOLTS Job Openings expected at 7.68M; continued declines could signal cooling labor demand.
Earnings Reports: nCino Inc. (NCNO)
Wednesday, April 2:
ADP Employment Change expected at 120K vs. 77K last month. A key read on private sector hiring trends.
Factory Orders expected +0.5%, another signal of industrial momentum.
Tariffs officially come into play: The USA launches new import tariffs on cars and strategic goods, a potential negative factor for inflation and global trade.
MBA Mortgage Applications Index to gauge real estate financing activity.
Earnings Reports: UniFirst Corp. (UNF), RH Inc. (RH), Blackberry Ltd. (BB)
Thursday, April 3:
Initial Jobless Claims expected at 225K, watching for signs of labor softening.
ISM Services Index expected at 53.0 (down from 53.5).
Earnings Reports: Conagra Brands Inc. (CAG), Acuity Brands (AYI), Lamb Weston Holdings Inc. (LW), Lindsay Corp. (LNN), Guess? Inc. (GES)
Friday, April 4:
Nonfarm Payrolls expected at 128K (down from 151K).
Unemployment Rate expected to rise to 4.2% from 4.1%.
Fed Chair Powell Speaks – critical for rate expectations.
Earnings Reports: None.
IMPORTANT: The expectations of the respective economic data may change in the course of the week. They will be updated in the Discord and will be discussed in more detail.
Weekly Market Wrap
Last week reflected the continued vulnerability of markets to inflationary data and shifting political narratives. Markets opened the week with optimism after Trump hinted at selective tariffs, which briefly lifted sentiment. However, this was quickly overshadowed by core PCE inflation data coming in at 2.8%, above expectations and reinforcing the "higher for longer" rate narrative.
Consumer Confidence plunged to 92.9, while Michigan Sentiment cratered to 57.9, the lowest level since 2022. Despite a better-than-expected Q4 GDP print (2.4%), the broader picture remains one of softening growth and persistent price pressures.
The S&P 500 failed to sustain a breakout above our 5700 level and closed the week back within its previous range. In crypto, BTC briefly rallied on continued ETF inflows and Saylor's buying activity but faded into the weekend. Sentiment across markets remains highly reactive and cautious.
Our official trading Partner Mexc
We have an exclusive partnership with Mexc. Through us you will benefit from a 0% Maker Fee, Taker Fee 0.02% get a $8'000 Trading Bonus.
Crypto & Market Outlook
Week 14 puts the spotlight on labor data, escalating tariff tensions, and Powell's crucial Friday speech. The official rollout of new U.S. tariffs on Tuesday adds fresh uncertainty to global trade dynamics and inflation expectations. Any swift retaliation from China or the EU could further rattle markets and intensify risk-off sentiment.
The ADP and Nonfarm Payrolls reports will be pivotal in shaping Fed rate expectations. Slowing job growth or rising unemployment could open the door to earlier cuts, if Powell remains neutral. However, a hawkish tone may signal the Fed’s ongoing fight against sticky inflation, adding pressure to equities and crypto alike.
Factory orders and the ISM indices will provide additional insight into industrial activity and macro resilience.
In crypto, volatility remains elevated. Bitcoin trades in a range with fading momentum, while altcoins broadly underperform. Macro data continue to steer market sentiment.
Key Catalysts to Watch:
Tariff Policy from April 2: The implementation of the new U.S. tariffs marks a real stress test for the markets. If retaliatory tariffs follow, it could trigger a new phase of global trade uncertainty.
ADP and Nonfarm Payrolls: Any downside surprises could bring in more uncertainty.
Powell’s Friday Speech: Markets will hang on his tone and wording. Dovish hints could be interpreted as bad since Powell may have to ease due to a week economy. A hawkish tone could extend the sell-off too. We want a rather neutral and confident Powell.
ISM Manufacturing & Services: Continued weakness may reinforce recession fears.
Consumer & Business Confidence: Key to understanding demand-side trends in Q2.
Conclusion
Week 14 begins with a cautious tone. Economic data will either validate fears of a stagflationary environment or open the door for optimism on disinflation. Powell’s speech will be a pivotal moment of the week, likely setting the tone for both equities and crypto into mid-April.
Key Takeaways:
New U.S. tariffs take effect on Tuesday; geopolitical risk is on the rise.
Core PCE remains sticky, pushing back rate cut expectations.
Consumer sentiment is collapsingdemand-side risks rising.
Powell’s Friday speech could shift market tone decisively.
Crypto lacks conviction; watch ETF flows and macro guidance.
Risk management and patience remain paramount.
Stay alert, stay strategic.
Here's to a successful week, and stay tuned for more weekly outlooks on the crypto and financial markets.
Best regards,
your Velaris Trading Team!
Membership
Telegram
Website
Support
This newsletter, this e-mail does not contain any financial advice.
Reply