Weekly Trader's Market Outlook.

Hey Trader,

Welcome to the weekly Velaris Trading Newsletter – your source for real market insight, no fluff, no noise.

Here’s this week’s newsletter breakdown:

Brief Overview

What to Expect in Week 17
After a week full of geopolitical uncertainty and stagnating prices, Week 17 shifts focus to consumer sentiment, the housing market, and the first major tech earnings. The economic data will help determine whether the drop to 5280 in the S&P 500 was a local bottom—or just the beginning of exhaustion.

Weekly Market Wrap
Week 16 was marked by simmering uncertainty. The S&P 500 dropped back toward 5280 after failing to break the 5550 resistance. Headlines surrounding tariffs and China's export restrictions dominated the week. Bitcoin remained steady between 83K and 86K, while gold hit a new all-time high above $3350.

Earnings Highlights
This week puts several tech giants in the spotlight: Tesla (TSLA), Alphabet (GOOG), IBM, Texas Instruments (TXN), and ServiceNow (NOW). The key question: how will Big Tech respond to weakening demand and rising geopolitical risks?

What does week 17 bring?

Monday, April 21

• Leading Indicators: Expected decline of -0.5% – signals economic slowdown.

• Earnings: Comerica (CMA), W.R. Berkley (WRB), Western Alliance (WAL), Zions (ZION), BOK Financial (BOKF)

Tuesday, April 22

• No major economic data

• Earnings: GE Aerospace (GE), Verizon (VZ), RTX Corp. (RTX), Lockheed Martin (LMT), Danaher (DHR), Tesla (TSLA), SAP, Intuitive Surgical (ISRG)

Wednesday, April 23

• MBA Mortgage Applications

• New Home Sales: Expected at 0.68M – a sentiment indicator for real estate

• Earnings: AT&T (T), Thermo-Scientific (TMO), Boeing (BA), CME Group (CME), IBM, ServiceNow (NOW), Texas Instruments (TXN), Lam Research (LRCX), Chipotle (CMG)

Thursday, April 24

• Existing Home Sales: Expected at 4.18M (down from 4.26M)

• Initial Jobless Claims: Expected at 218K

• Durable Goods Orders: Expected +1.2% – investment activity signal

• Earnings: Alphabet (GOOG), T-Mobile (TMUS), PepsiCo (PEP), Intel (INTC), Procter & Gamble (PG), Gilead (GILD)

Friday, April 25

• University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment: Expected at 50.8 (prior 57) – possible new low?

• Earnings: AbbVie (ABBV), HCA Healthcare (HCA), AON, Colgate-Palmolive (CL), Charter Communications (CHTR)

^{IMPORTANT: The expectations of the respective economic data may change in the course of the week. They will be updated in the Discord and will be discussed in more detail.}

Weekly Market Wrap

Week 16 was calm on the surface—but not without danger. The SPX failed again at 5550 and dropped back to 5282, signaling technical weakness. 10Y bond yields climbed to 4.42%, indicating rising risk premiums. At the same time, gold remained in high demand and Bitcoin held firm—pointing to rising demand for safe havens. Fed messaging remains mixed: Powell remains cautious while Trump demands rate cuts. A trade deal with China is still nowhere in sight.

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Crypto & Market Outlook

The spotlight in Week 17 is on geopolitics, consumer data, and the first big tech earnings. While the SPX recovered slightly after “Black Monday,” there’s still no confirmation of a trend reversal. The market shows clear signs of fatigue, even as short-term volatility eases.

Bitcoin holds steady around 84K with high dominance. Most altcoins are near critical support zones. But without macroeconomic stability, those setups remain speculative.

A key moment will be Friday’s consumer sentiment data. A new low could increase risk-off sentiment. Simultaneously, earnings from Tesla and Alphabet could be market-moving—impacting not just tech but the broader equity landscape. If confidence breaks, SPX could revisit the 5000 level.

Key Catalysts to Watch

• Michigan Sentiment: A new low would reinforce consumer risk.

• Durable Goods Orders: A proxy for large corporate investment appetite.

• Tesla & Alphabet Earnings: Crucial for tech and broader recovery hopes.

• Housing & Mortgage Data: Reflects the state of the overheated US mortgage market.

Conclusion

Week 17 will likely decide whether we see a technical bounce or the next wave of sell-offs. Macro remains shaky, and geopolitical risks are high. Anyone trading now must do so with a system, discipline, and clear risk-reward perspective.

Key Takeaways

• SPX shows technical weakness

• Powell remains cautious while Trump escalates rhetoric

• Bitcoin stable but stuck below Bull Market Support Band

• All eyes on Alphabet & Tesla this week

• Consumer sentiment may hit new lows

Stay sharp.

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To a successful week ahead — and stay tuned for more weekly insights into the crypto and financial markets.

Stay focused. Stay rational.

Kind regards,
Don - Founder of Velaris Trading

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