Hey Trader,
Welcome to the weekly Velaris Trading Newsletter – your source for real market insight, no fluff, no noise.
Here’s this week’s newsletter breakdown:
Brief Overview
What’s coming up in Week 18?
After a fragile stabilization, important labor market data and inflation numbers will be in the spotlight this week. The markets are at a crucial turning point: strong figures could support the recovery, while weak data could reignite fears of a recession. Tech giants like Apple and Amazon will also heavily influence market sentiment.
Weekly Market Review
Markets showed the first signs of bottoming. The S&P 500 successfully defended the 5100 zone and climbed over 6.5% toward the critical resistance around 5500 points. However, political uncertainty remains high, as talks between the U.S. and China still lack clear direction. Gold reached new all-time highs, and Bitcoin held above key support levels. Institutional investors are slowly returning, but the recovery remains fragile without clear progress on trade policy and inflation.
Earnings Highlights
This week’s focus: Microsoft (MSFT), Meta Platforms (META), Apple (AAPL), Amazon (AMZN), and Visa (V).
What does week 11 bring?
Monday, April 28
No major economic data
Earnings Reports: Roper Technologies (ROP), Domino’s Pizza (DPZ), Waste Management (WM), NXP Semiconductors (NXPI)
Tuesday, April 29
Consumer Confidence: Expected at 89 (previous 92.9) – potential early warning signs for consumer behavior.
JOLTs Job Openings: Expected at 7.4 million – a key labor market indicator.
S&P Case-Shiller Home Price Index: Expected +4.7% – showing a still-strong real estate market.
Earnings Reports: Coca-Cola (KO), Visa (V), Pfizer (PFE), Starbucks (SBUX), Booking Holdings (BKNG)
Wednesday, April 30
ADP Employment Change: Expected at 110K (previous 155K) – hinting at possible labor market weakness.
Chicago PMI: Expected at 46 – continued contraction in manufacturing.
PCE Price Index: Expected at 2.1% – critical for Fed policy decisions.
Core PCE (excluding food & energy): Expected at +0.1% – a sharp slowdown from +0.4% the previous month.
Other reports: MBA Mortgage Applications, Pending Home Sales
Earnings Reports: Microsoft (MSFT), Meta Platforms (META), Qualcomm (QCOM), Caterpillar (CAT)
Thursday, May 1
Initial Jobless Claims: Expected at 225K – labor market momentum indicator.
ISM Manufacturing Index: Expected at 47.2 – indicating continued weakness in manufacturing.
Earnings Reports: Apple (AAPL), Amazon (AMZN), Mastercard (MA), McDonald's (MCD), Airbnb (ABNB)
Friday, May 2
Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP): Expected at 140K (previous 228K) – a notable slowdown in hiring expected.
Unemployment Rate: Expected to stay steady at 4.2%.
Earnings Reports: ExxonMobil (XOM), Chevron (CVX), Cigna (CI)
IMPORTANT: The expectations of the respective economic data may change in the course of the week. They will be updated in the Discord and will be discussed in more detail.
Weekly Market Wrap
Last week was a balancing act: despite geopolitical tensions, markets managed to stage a recovery. The S&P 500 defended key support levels and attempted to break through resistance at 5500. Gold confirmed ongoing risk aversion by hitting new highs. Bitcoin showed relative strength, staying above critical support zones. Still, nervousness remains high, especially with inflation walking a tightrope and potential trade conflict escalations lurking around the corner.
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Crypto & Market Outlook
Week 18 will be shaped by critical macroeconomic data and major earnings reports.
Focus: Labor market data (ADP, NFP) and inflation indicators (PCE Price Index).
If the labor market weakens and inflation drops, markets could interpret this as a signal for imminent rate cuts – bullish for stocks and crypto.
If labor data stays strong or inflation remains high, rate cut hopes could be delayed again – posing a risk for fresh market corrections.
Assessment:
Markets no longer price in rapid rate cuts.
Instead, the "higher for longer" narrative is back in focus.
Signs of a cooling job market could still give the Fed some room to maneuver, especially in an election year.
For Bitcoin and Crypto:
Bitcoin continues to show strength above the Bull Market Support Band.
ETF inflows have remained strong, totaling several billion USD over the past few weeks.
Bitcoin dominance is rising, and altcoins are underperforming – typical behavior in early recovery phases.
If labor markets weaken or inflation data comes in lower than expected, Bitcoin could rally further.
On the flip side, macro shocks could still push Bitcoin sharply back below 83K.
Important:
Core PCE data is the key trigger for risk-on/risk-off decisions.
Tech earnings (Apple, Amazon, Microsoft, Meta) could create major volatility. Disappointments could wipe out the ongoing recovery.
Key Catalysts to Watch
Labor market data (NFP, ADP, Jobless Claims): A labor market crack could reignite rate cut expectations.
Core PCE & PCE Price Data: Crucial for Fed interest rate outlook – any surprise up or down will have a big impact.
Tech Earnings: Microsoft, Meta, Apple, and Amazon will heavily influence market sentiment this week.
Trade tensions: Any developments between the U.S. and China can immediately impact risk assets.
Bitcoin ETF inflows: Rising demand could continue to stabilize crypto, especially if stock markets weaken.
Conclusion
Week 18 could become a pivotal week for Q2.
A stronger labor market combined with falling inflation would be an explosive setup for risk assets.
If both labor market strength and inflation persist, markets could rotate back into safe havens.
In either case, Bitcoin is likely to be the relative winner among risk assets – but even BTC could get caught up in macro-driven shocks in the short term.
Key Takeaways
Macro data (labor market, inflation) will dominate the agenda.
Tech earnings will provide strong impulses – disappointments could be costly.
Bitcoin shows strength but isn’t immune to macro shocks.
Political headlines (trade war risks) remain highly dangerous.
Only well-defined setups with a strong risk-reward profile are worth pursuing in this environment.
Discipline, patience, and flexibility are essential this week.
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To a successful week ahead — and stay tuned for more weekly insights into the crypto and financial markets.
Stay focused. Stay rational.
Kind regards,
Don - Founder of Velaris Trading
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