Hey Trader,
Welcome to the weekly Velaris Trading Newsletter – your source for real market insight, no fluff, no noise.
Here’s this week’s newsletter breakdown:
Brief Overview
What’s Coming in Week 19?
After a week of strong tech earnings and mixed macro data, Week 19 shifts focus to the Federal Reserve's rate decision. With rate expectations largely anchored, the question is whether Powell will acknowledge the improving macro backdrop or double down on caution. Bitcoin hovers near resistance while altcoins lag.
Weekly Market Wrap
Week 18 saw markets rally despite a -0.3% US GDP contraction. The S&P 500 approached 5700 and the NASDAQ jumped 25% from April lows, driven by strong tech earnings. Oil prices fell, signaling possible demand weakness.
Inflation met expectations, and solid job gains (177K) with steady unemployment (4.2%).
Tech led the rally, but risks remain: imports surged ahead of tariffs, while Chinese container bookings dropped sharply. A trade deal is expected—without it, momentum could falter.
Bitcoin stayed near 98K with rising ETF inflows, though profit-taking risk is growing.
Earning Highlights
Palantir (PLTR), BioNTech (BNTX), Vertex Pharma (VRTX), AMD, Arista Networks (ANET), Datadog (DDOG), Electronic Arts (EA), Uber (UBER), Shopify (SHOP), Disney (DIS), DoorDash (DASH), Fortinet (FTNT), Coinbase (COIN) and Cloudflare (NET).
What does week 19 bring?
Monday, May 5
ISM Services PMI: Expected at 50.3 – signaling modest growth.
Earnings: PLTR, BNTX, VRTX, CLX, TSN
Tuesday, May 6
No major economic reports
Earnings: AMD, ANET, DDOG, EA, DUK, MAR
Wednesday, May 7
FOMC Interest Rate Decision: Expected to remain unchanged at 4.5% – market will closely watch Powell’s tone.
MBA Mortgage Applications
Earnings: UBER, DIS, SHOP, DASH, FTNT
Thursday, May 8
Initial Jobless Claims: Expected at 240K – continued monitoring of labor softness.
Earnings: COIN, NET, COP, LNG
Friday, May 9
Fed Speeches: Likely market-moving depending on tone.
Earnings: ENB, SLF, PBA, PAA
IMPORTANT: The expectations of the respective economic data may change in the course of the week. They will be updated in the Discord and will be discussed in more detail.
Weekly Market Wrap
Markets rallied sharply despite a -0.3% GDP contraction, with the S&P 500 reclaiming 5600 and pushing toward 5700. The NASDAQ surged over 25% from April lows, powered by strong tech earnings from Meta, Microsoft, Amazon, and Apple. Meanwhile, oil prices dropped, raising concerns about global demand.
Inflation data came in as expected: core PCE at 2.6% and headline at 2.3%, easing Fed pressure. Nonfarm payrolls beat expectations with 177K jobs and unemployment steady at 4.2%.
Tech drove the rebound, but risks are rising. Imports spiked as firms front-ran tariffs, distorting GDP. Container bookings from China plunged nearly 50%. The market is pricing in a trade deal. If it fails to materialize, the rally could unwind.
In crypto, Bitcoin held above support but hit resistance at 98K. Dominance rose, ETFs attracted inflows, but with many holders in profit, profit-taking is likely. Altcoins lagged, reflecting a cautious, risk-off tone.
Bottom line: Strong earnings and hope for policy resolution fueled the rally. Without real progress, markets remain vulnerable. Stay strategic, take profits, and don’t chase.
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Crypto & Market Outlook
All eyes are on Powell. With inflation stable and job growth intact, the Fed could signal optimism – or stick to its cautious script. The trade war remains the biggest unknown: markets have priced in a de-escalation, but no deal is in sight.
Bitcoin’s resilience has been impressive, but dominance signals fear. If the Fed opens the door to summer rate cuts and tariffs de-escalate, crypto could benefit. If not, a sharp reversal remains possible.
Key Catalysts to Watch:
FOMC Decision (Wed): The biggest event of the week. Language shift could reset risk assets.
ISM Services (Mon): Insight into the health of the US service sector.
Jobless Claims (Thu): Will signal whether the labor market is softening.
Tech Earnings: AMD, COIN, UBER, SHOP and others could move the NASDAQ.
Fed Speeches (Fri): Markets will search for confirmation or contradiction of Wednesday’s tone.
Conclusion
Week 19 presents a crossroads. The bullish trend is alive – but fragile. Everything hinges on the Fed’s tone and geopolitical clarity. With major tech earnings and macro data out of the way, this week may set the tone for May.
Key Takeaways:
Markets are rallying on hopes of Fed flexibility and trade de-escalation.
FOMC decision and Powell’s comments are pivotal.
Bitcoin shows strength, but dominance rise warns of broader caution.
Profit-taking is likely across both equities and crypto.
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To a successful week ahead — and stay tuned for more weekly insights into the crypto and financial markets.
Stay focused. Stay rational.
Kind regards,
Don - Founder of Velaris Trading
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