Hey Trader,
Welcome to the weekly Velaris Trading Newsletter – your source for real market insight, no fluff, no noise.
Here’s this week’s newsletter breakdown:
Brief Overview
What’s Coming in Week 20?
After a sharp market rebound and strong earnings, Week 20 turns to inflation data. With CPI and PPI scheduled, traders will finally get clarity on whether inflation remains under control or if price pressures are reaccelerating. As Trump resumes tariff rhetoric and Powell holds the line, this week could redefine the macro narrative.
Weekly Market Wrap
Week 19 was marked by the Fed's decision to hold rates, with Powell’s dovish tone offering temporary market reassurance. The S&P 500 showed fatigue after a strong rally, while Trump’s tariff comments reignited geopolitical tensions despite a symbolic UK trade deal. Bitcoin outperformed briefly but showed signs of a looming technical correction.
Earnings Highlights
Monday.com (MNDY), Zoominfo (ZI), Hertz (HTZ), JD.com (JD), Sea Ltd. (SE), On Holdings (ONON), Oklo Inc. (OKLO), Dynatrace (DT), Cisco (CSCO), Ibotta (IBTA), Alibaba (BABA), Applied Materials (AMAT), Take-Two Interactive (TTWO), Walmart (WMT) and RBC Bearings (RBC).
What does week 20 bring?
Monday, May 12:
No major economic reports
Earnings Reports: MNDY, ZI, HTZ, SPG, DVA, NRG
Tuesday, May 13:
CPI: Expected at 2.5% vs. previous 2.4%. Trueflation shows 1.6% → downside surprise likely.
Earnings Reports: SE, JD, ONON, EXEL, CAE, OKLO
Wednesday, May 14:
MBA Mortgage Applications Index
Wholesale Inventories: 0.3% expected
Earnings Reports: DT, CSCO, STE, NXT, DXC, IBTA
Thursday, May 15:
PPI: Expected at 3.3%, up from 2.7%. Core PPI 3.3%. MoM at 0.2%
Initial Jobless Claims: 220K expected
Retail Sales: -0.1% expected
Empire State Manufacturing, NAHB Index, Philly Fed Index
Earnings Reports: BABA, AMAT, TTWO, WMT, DE, NTES, CAVA
Friday, May 16:
Building Permits, Housing Starts, Import/Export Prices, TIC Flows
Michigan Consumer Sentiment: Expected at 54.5 (last month: 57)
Earnings Reports: RBC, FLO
IMPORTANT: The expectations of the respective economic data may change in the course of the week. They will be updated in the Discord and will be discussed in more detail.
Weekly Market Wrap
Week 19 was dominated by the Fed's monetary policy decision, geopolitical uncertainty, and the big question: Are we truly back in a bull market, or is this all just hope on credit?
After nine consecutive green days, the market showed the first signs of fatigue. The S&P 500 once again tested resistance at 5700 points. The FOMC meeting did not deliver a rate cut, but Powell’s “dovish hold” tone provided short-term reassurance.
Trump stirred geopolitical risk: trade talks with China were first announced, then walked back. His remark that “80% tariffs on China would be a reasonable starting point” was revealing. At the same time, a trade deal with the UK was celebrated — good for sentiment, but not a real turning point.
Bitcoin outperformed tech, briefly breaking 104K, but bearish divergences are mounting, the RSI is overbought, and USDT.D shows a bullish divergence. A technical correction seems likely.
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Crypto & Market Outlook
All eyes are on CPI and PPI. If CPI comes in below expectations, it could confirm Don’s thesis that the last inflation spike was temporary. Trueflation data suggests a sharp decline in real-time inflation. Conversely, an upside surprise – especially combined with rising PPI – could shock the markets.
Macro uncertainties persist: Powell remains cautious, Trump escalates rhetorically, and geopolitical risks remain. Earnings continue to support equities for now, but the rally is vulnerable if inflation disappoints.
Bitcoin shows relative strength, but technical risks are growing. A correction wouldn’t invalidate the trend but would reset overheated indicators.
Key Catalysts to Watch:
CPI & PPI Reports: Will confirm or reject the disinflation trend.
Retail Sales: Will reveal whether consumer demand is cooling.
Michigan Sentiment: A major drop could signal demand shock ahead.
Trump Tariff Rhetoric: Further escalation could rattle markets again.
Tech Earnings (Alibaba, Walmart, AMAT): Will show if growth justifies valuation.
Conclusion
Week 20 is packed with critical data. If CPI and PPI show easing pressure, Powell has room to maneuver. If not, rate cut hopes may collapse and volatility could surge. Bitcoin's strength is notable, but macro remains king. Stay focused, stay tactical.
Key Takeaways:
CPI expected at 2.5%, but downside surprise possible
PPI is rising: inflation not defeated yet
Powell cautious, Trump remains wildcard
Bitcoin holding strong, altcoins with a small rally
Tech earnings could be decisive for sentiment
Stay cautious.
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To a successful week ahead — and stay tuned for more weekly insights into the crypto and financial markets.
Stay focused. Stay rational.
Kind regards,
Don - Founder of Velaris Trading
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