Hey Trader,
Welcome to the weekly Velaris Trading Newsletter – your source for real market insight, no fluff, no noise.
Here’s this week’s newsletter breakdown:
Brief Overview
What’s Coming in Week 21?
After last week's euphoric rally driven by geopolitical headlines and cooling inflation data, Week 21 shifts focus to housing data and earnings from major retailers and tech firms. The market will also watch for confirmation that recent bullish momentum has structural support, or whether profit-taking and weak sentiment data will pressure asset prices again.
Weekly Market Wrap
Markets rallied on news of a U.S.-China trade deal and tariff cuts, but the surge was driven more by sentiment than fundamentals, with rising yields and weak consumer confidence casting doubt on sustained growth. In crypto, Bitcoin faced resistance near 105K amid bearish signals, while altcoins weakened and capital rotated into safer assets like BTC and stablecoins.
Earnings Highlights:
Palo Alto Networks (PANW), Home Depot (HD), Keysight Technologies (KEYS), Toll Brothers (TOL), Baidu (BIDU), Snowflake (SNOW), Zoom (ZM), Target (TGT), TJX (TJX), Lowe's (LOW), Intuit (INTU), Workday (WDAY), Autodesk (ADSK), Analog Devices (ADI) and Ross Stores (ROST).
What does week 21 bring?
Monday, May 19
Leading Indicators: Often signal turning points in the economy. Market watching for continued weakness or early signs of a turnaround.
Earnings Reports: Target Hospitality (TH), Trip.com (TCOM)
Tuesday, May 20
No major economic reports
Earnings Reports: Home Depot (HD), Palo Alto Networks (PANW), Keysight Technologies (KEYS), Viking Holdings (VIK), GDS Holdings (GDS), Toll Brothers (TOL)
Wednesday, May 21
MBA Mortgage Applications
Earnings Reports: TJX (TJX), Lowe’s (LOW), Medtronic (MDT), Target (TGT), Baidu (BIDU), Snowflake (SNOW), Zoom (ZM), Urban Outfitters (URBN)
Thursday, May 22
Existing Home Sales: Expected at 3.9M, down from 4.02M
Initial Jobless Claims: Expected at 231K
Earnings Reports: Analog Devices (ADI), Ralph Lauren (RL), Intuit (INTU), Workday (WDAY), Autodesk (ADSK), Ross Stores (ROST), Deckers Outdoor (DECK)
Friday, May 23
New Home Sales
Earnings Reports: Booz Allen Hamilton (BAH), Buckle Inc. (BKE)
IMPORTANT: The expectations of the respective economic data may change in the course of the week. They will be updated in the Discord and will be discussed in more detail.
Weekly Market Wrap
Markets surged as Trump announced a major trade agreement with China, including a dramatic reduction in tariffs for 90 days. The S&P 500 broke through the 5800 resistance and closed the week at 5958—over 22% higher from the 4800 accumulation zone. However, this rally was sentiment-driven, not data-driven.
Inflation data continued to soften: CPI came in at 2.3% and PPI also undershot expectations. Despite this, long-term yields rose, indicating skepticism about imminent rate cuts. Consumer confidence remains weak—a sign that demand may be a bigger concern than supply-side inflation.
In crypto, Bitcoin tested the 104K–105K zone but failed to break higher, forming bearish divergences on the RSI. A reset between 100K–98K could offer better entries. Meanwhile, Saylor added $1.34B to MicroStrategy’s BTC holdings, solidifying BTC as a macro asset.
Altcoins showed weakness across the board. ETH, SOL, and TOTAL2 formed "Three Drive" bearish patterns, while USDT.D printed bullish divergences—classic signals for risk-off behavior and profit-taking.
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Crypto & Market Outlook
Cooling inflation, geopolitical optimism, and large BTC purchases have fueled risk appetite. But signs of exhaustion are building: overbought indicators, bearish divergences, and rising yields all warn of fragility.
Crypto remains sensitive to risk sentiment. If equities pull back, BTC may test the 98K support zone. Altcoins remain vulnerable as dominance rises and USDT.D trends higher. Spot entries should be cautious, and only after confirmed resets.
Key Catalysts to Watch
Housing Data: Existing and new home sales are key for understanding consumer confidence and economic resilience.
Tech Earnings: Snowflake, Palo Alto, Zoom, and Intuit could determine if the tech rally has legs.
BTC Structure: Bearish RSI divergences and Saylor’s buying spree could diverge. Is this institutional support or exit liquidity?
Bond Yields: Long-end rising despite CPI/PPI softness. Watch for disconnect.
Conclusion
Week 21 has the potential to either confirm last week’s bullish breakout or mark the start of a short-term reversal. If earnings disappoint and economic data deteriorates, profit-taking could accelerate. If momentum holds and BTC breaks above 105K, new highs are possible.
Key Takeaways
Market optimism fueled by US-China tariff relief
Bitcoin facing bearish divergences, RSI overbought
Altcoins underperform, capital rotating into BTC and USDT
CPI and PPI support Fed pause, but rate cuts still uncertain
Tech earnings and housing data will guide the week
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To a successful week ahead — and stay tuned for more weekly insights into the crypto and financial markets.
Stay focused. Stay rational.
Don Diego - Founder of Velaris Trading
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