Hey Trader,
Welcome to the weekly Velaris Trading Newsletter – your source for real market insight, no fluff, no noise.
Here’s this week’s newsletter breakdown:
Brief Overview
What’s Coming in Week 22?
Following Moody’s historic downgrade of US credit and Trump’s aggressive new EU tariffs, Week 22 will test the market’s resilience. Economic data including Consumer Confidence, GDP revisions, and Core PCE will take center stage, offering clues on inflation and demand. With Bitcoin at new highs and equities facing macro pressure, all eyes are on signs of a market reset.
Weekly Market Wrap
In Week 21, Bitcoin soared to a record $111,970 driven by $2.75B in ETF inflows and optimism, while equities declined as Moody’s downgraded the US credit rating for the first time since 1917, triggering a nearly 2% drop in the S&P 500. Rising bond yields, a weakening dollar, and Trump’s new 50% EU tariff heightened global trade and debt concerns, even as gold gained and crypto markets showed signs of fading risk appetite.
Earnings Highlights
Key earnings this week: PDD, Autozone, Okta, Box, Nvidia, Salesforce, Synopsys, Veeva, HP, Costco, Dell, Marvell, Zscaler und Shoe Carnival.
What does week 22 bring?
Monday, May 26
Fed Chair Powell Speech
Tuesday, May 27
Consumer Confidence: Expected at 84, down from 98.3 – indicates weakening sentiment
Durable Goods Orders: -6.8% expected – sharp decline suggests slowing demand
Housing Data: FHFA Price Index & S&P/Case-Shiller Index
Earnings: PDD, Autozone, Okta, Box
Wednesday, May 28
MBA Mortgage Applications
Earnings: Nvidia, Salesforce, Synopsys, Veeva, HP
Thursday, May 29
GDP (Second Estimate): Expected -0.3%, down from 3.1% Q4 – clear signal of slowing economy
Initial Jobless Claims: 230K expected
Pending Home Sales
Earnings: Costco, Dell, Marvell, Zscaler
Friday, May 30
Chicago PMI: Expected at 47 – contraction territory
Core PCE: Expected +0.2% MoM – critical for inflation trend
Michigan Consumer Sentiment: Expected at 46.5
Earnings: Shoe Carnival
IMPORTANT: The expectations of the respective economic data may change in the course of the week. They will be updated in the Discord and will be discussed in more detail.
Weekly Market Wrap
Week 21 delivered a dramatic shift in sentiment. Bitcoin surged to new all-time highs driven by ETF inflows and optimism, while equities faltered. The S&P 500 dropped nearly 2%, closing at 5,802. The key catalyst: Moody’s downgrade of the US sovereign credit rating from AAA to AA1, citing structural deficits and rising debt costs. This marked the first Moody’s downgrade of the US since they began ratings in 1917.
Long-term yields jumped above 5% on 30-year bonds. Foreign participation at Treasury auctions weakened, notably from Japan. Gold gained over 3%, while the dollar showed weakness. Trump announced a 50% tariff on all EU imports starting June 1st, further stoking fears of a global trade war.
In crypto, Bitcoin hit $111,970, boosted by $2.75B in ETF inflows. Michael Saylor likely accumulated more BTC. However, the broader crypto market showed bearish divergences (e.g. TOTAL, USDT.D), pointing to reduced risk appetite. The Fear & Greed Index reached euphoric levels before pulling back. Traders were reminded that euphoric sentiment often precedes volatility.
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End: June 4th at 6:59 AM CET / 12:59 AM EST / 2:59 PM AEST
Crypto & Market Outlook
This week’s macro environment is fragile. The downgrade from Moody’s puts the US in uncharted territory. If economic data this week confirms a slowdown (GDP, confidence, durable goods), the Fed may face mounting pressure from political forces like Trump to cut rates, despite sticky inflation.
Markets are reacting to two opposing forces: inflation control vs. economic damage from rising yields and tariffs. Powell’s Monday speech and Friday’s Core PCE will shape expectations for summer Fed policy. Bitcoin continues to hold strength, but bearish divergences warn of a broader crypto pullback.
Key Catalysts to Watch:
Powell’s Speech (Mon): Will he respond to Moody’s downgrade and Trump’s pressure?
GDP Revision (Thu): A negative print could confirm recessionary risk
Core PCE (Fri): Key gauge for Fed decisions; any upside surprise could spook markets
Nvidia & Tech Earnings: Will tech keep supporting indices or show signs of slowdown?
EU Tariff Impact: Markets will monitor Europe’s response as June 1 approaches
Conclusion
We’re entering a phase of macro fragility. Inflation remains sticky, growth is slowing, and geopolitical tensions are rising. A soft Core PCE print and calming rhetoric from Powell could stabilize markets, but any hawkish surprises or economic disappointments may accelerate risk-off flows.
Key Takeaways:
Moody’s downgrade marks a major shift in US credit confidence
Trump’s tariffs risk igniting a global trade conflict
Core PCE and GDP data will dictate Fed narrative this week
Nvidia’s earnings are crucial for tech sentiment
Bitcoin strong but showing signs of exhaustion
Stay disciplined. Protect your capital. Wait for clear setups.
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To a successful week ahead — and stay tuned for more weekly insights into the crypto and financial markets.
Stay focused. Stay rational.
Kind regards,
Don - Founder of Velaris Trading
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