Hey Trader,
Welcome to the weekly Velaris Trading Newsletter – your source for real market insight, no fluff, no noise.
Here’s this week’s newsletter breakdown:
Brief Overview
What’s Coming in Week 23?
Markets are heading into a week full of employment and manufacturing data. All eyes will be on the Nonfarm Payrolls and Unemployment Rate this Friday. If the labor market shows weakness, it could pressure the Fed to act sooner, despite inflation not yet being fully tamed. At the same time, China tensions and the tariff debates remain unresolved and could swing sentiment any day.
Weekly Market Wrap
Week 22 brought mixed signals: while the S&P 500 briefly rallied on a blocked EU tariff hike, it ended at 5,911, and macro data showed modest strength with rising consumer confidence and easing inflation. Bitcoin with a negative week and at critical support area.
Earnings Highlights
CrowdStrike (CRWD), Hewlett Packard Enterprise (HPE), Asana (ASAN), MongoDB (MDB), Five Below (FIVE), Dollar Tree (DLTR), Broadcom (AVGO), Lululemon (LULU) and Rubrik (RBRK).
What does week 23 bring?
Monday, June 2
ISM Manufacturing Index: Expected at 49 – shows contraction in the manufacturing sector.
Earnings: Campbell's (CPB), SAIC, Credo Tech (CRDO)
Tuesday, June 3
Factory Orders: Expected -2.2% – indicates softening demand.
JOLTS Job Openings: Expected at 7.05M – provides insight into labor demand.
Earnings: Ferguson (FERG), Dollar General (DG), NIO, Ollie’s Bargain Outlet (OLLI), Signet (SIG), CRWD, HPE, ASAN
Wednesday, June 4
ADP Employment Change: Expected at 70K – an early job market pulse.
ISM Services Index: Expected at 52 – any drop below 50 is contraction.
MBA Mortgage Applications Index: Insight into real estate activity.
Earnings: Dollar Tree (DLTR), Thor Industries (THO), MongoDB (MDB), Five Below (FIVE), PVH, Verint (VRNT)
Thursday, June 5
Initial Jobless Claims: Expected at 243K – a sharp rise would be concerning.
Earnings: Broadcom (AVGO), Lululemon (LULU), Samsara (IOT), Rubrik (RBRK)
Friday, June 6
Nonfarm Payrolls: Expected at 130K – a key Fed-watched data point.
Unemployment Rate: Expected to remain steady at 4.2%
Consumer Credit: Gauges consumer spending health.
Earnings: No major reports.
IMPORTANT: The expectations of the respective economic data may change in the course of the week. They will be updated in the Discord and will be discussed in more detail.
Weekly Market Wrap
Week 22 delivered a mix of relief and anxiety. The SPX saw a short-lived rally early in the week after a New York court declared tariffs as illegal. However, Trump’s team quickly appealed, and market optimism faded. Towards the end of the week, Trump became offensive again attacking China and EU. The S&P 500 closed at 5,911, with a bearish divergence forming on the 12H chart, signaling potential downside.
Macroeconomic data provided some stability this week: Consumer Confidence jumped to 98 (vs. 87 expected), GDP second estimate came in at -0.2% (better than the -0.3% expected), and PCE YoY inflation fell slightly to 2.2%.
Bitcoin had a rather rough week, down 5%.
A combination of uncertainty and profit-taking caused Bitcoin to bleed more than the rest of the market. Altcoins underperformed, and the TOTAL3-USDT/BTC ratio suggests there is still downside risk ahead.
On the higher timeframe, Bitcoin is forming a bearish divergence on the monthly chart - similar to what we saw during the last cycle before a deeper correction.
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Crypto & Market Outlook
The labor market data could be the next big market mover. If NFP and ADP both show a slowdown, expectations for rate cuts may rise. However, ongoing trade tensions and uncertainty around tariffs may limit risk-on behavior. Also, more uncertainty coming for the labor market could fuel a bearish sentiment.
Smart money is taking profits in crypto, while retail is once again losing its gains. If macro uncertainty persists, this could signal a capital rotation into hard assets. Keep an eye on TOTAL, USDT.D, and BTC.D for potential trend shift signals.
Key Catalysts to Watch
Nonfarm Payrolls & ADP Jobs Data: Will shape Fed expectations.
Tariff Updates: Any resolution or escalation could shock markets.
SPX Technical Setup: Bearish divergence.
BTC 1D RSI & TOTAL Divergence: Signs of consolidation or trend break?
Broadcom & Lululemon Earnings: Indicators for tech and consumer strength.
Conclusion
Week 23 will be driven by key labor market data like Nonfarm Payrolls and ADP, which could reshape Fed expectations if weakness appears. Markets remain fragile as tariff tensions with China and the EU resurface, while Bitcoin shows signs of rotation into safer assets amid macro uncertainty.
Watch SPX technicals, BTC.D, USDT.D and TOTAL for clues as to whether the next move is consolidation or a deeper correction.
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To a successful week ahead — and stay tuned for more weekly insights into the crypto and financial markets.
Stay focused. Stay rational.
Kind regards,
Don - Founder of Velaris Trading
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