Hey Trader,
Welcome to the weekly Velaris Trading Newsletter – your source for real market insight, no fluff, no noise.
Here’s this week’s newsletter breakdown:
Brief Overview
What’s Coming in Week 24?
All eyes are on inflation this week. The CPI report on Wednesday and the PPI on Thursday will be decisive in shaping the Fed’s next steps. At the same time, Apple's WWDC kicks off, and markets continue testing major resistance levels after a volatile but bullish week. Crypto and equities both hover near key breakout points – but smart money remains cautious.
Weekly Market Wrap
Markets began the week on a weak note due to a soft ISM Manufacturing reading and trade tensions but rebounded on strong labor data, with the S&P 500 ending at 6000, near record highs. Bitcoin saw sharp volatility, dipping into key support before recovering. Political noise from renewed U.S.-China trade tensions and Trump’s feud with Elon Musk had some market impact, though caution remains warranted as BTC ETF flows turned negative and sentiment stays neutral.
Earnings Highlights
Earnings to watch this week: GitLab (GTLB), Oracle (ORCL), Chewy (CHWY) and SailPoint (SAIL).
What does week 24 bring?
Monday, June 9
Wholesale Inventories – Signals demand and supply chain momentum
Event: Apple WWDC kicks off
Earnings: Casey’s (CASY), Calavo Growers (CVGW)
Tuesday, June 10
No major economic reports
Earnings: Smuckers (SJM), Core & Main (CNM), Academy Sports (ASO), GameStop (GME), GitLab (GTLB), Dave & Buster’s (PLAY)
Wednesday, June 11
CPI: Expected at 2.5%, up from last month’s 2.3% – a potential warning if confirmed
MBA Mortgage Applications
Earnings: Chewy (CHWY), SailPoint (SAIL), Victoria’s Secret (VSCO), Oracle (ORCL)
Thursday, June 12
PPI: Expected at 2.3% – stable, but still elevated
Initial Jobless Claims: 250K expected – rising trend suggests softening labor market
Earnings: Lovesac (LOVE), RH Inc. (RH)
Friday, June 13
University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment – Preliminary: Expected at 52, a decline from 57 – potential concern for future spending
IMPORTANT: The expectations of the respective economic data may change in the course of the week. They will be updated in the Discord and will be discussed in more detail.
Weekly Market Wrap
Week 23 started with weak economical data but ended with resilience. Monday’s weak ISM Manufacturing Index (48.5) signaled economic stress, likely worsened by the ongoing tariff conflict. However, strong labor data on Friday helped lift markets. Nonfarm Payrolls came in at 130K (inline), unemployment remained at 4.2%, and the S&P 500 closed the week exactly at 6000 – pressing against resistance near all-time highs.
Bitcoin was highly volatile, dropping into our key 100K zone after breaking out of an ascending triangle. We booked profits and re-entered the bottom perfectly as USDT.D entered our buy zone. Bitcoin recovered to 105K and could test 106–108K, but bearish divergences warn of caution. ETH ETF inflows were positive, suggesting short-term institutional interest rotation from BTC to ETH.
Trump’s public clash with Elon Musk added fuel to the fire, though markets largely shrugged it off, showing increasing immunity to Trump's headline risk.
Still, BTC ETF flows turned net negative this week, and the BTC Fear & Greed Index remains neutral. The structure is healthy – but fragile. This was a week for discipline, not FOMO.
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Crypto & Market Outlook
Inflation week ahead. The CPI on Wednesday and PPI on Thursday will dominate the macro narrative. Higher-than-expected inflation could force the Fed to hold rates higher for longer, pressuring risk assets. However, if CPI comes in cooler than 2.5%, it could re-open the path for earlier rate cuts.
The structure across markets is cautious. Bitcoin looks technically healthy but not euphoric. Stocks hover at resistance. Apple’s WWDC may offer bullish momentum if AI announcements are well received. But geopolitical risks – especially Trump’s tariff stance – remain a key threat.
Key Catalysts to Watch:
CPI & PPI (Wed/Thu): Any surprise here will instantly shift risk sentiment. A hot CPI could crush bulls.
Apple WWDC (Mon–Fri): Markets want new AI leadership – any surprise from Apple could trigger sector rotation or bullish momentum.
Consumer Sentiment (Fri): Confidence is falling – weak data may confirm slowing demand.
BTC ETF Flows: Watch for signs of renewed crypto accumulation or exit.
Conclusion
Week 23 could define the next phase for risk assets. With inflation data, consumer sentiment, and Apple's WWDC all colliding, markets are poised for high volatility. Momentum is intact – but conviction remains weak. This is a week to stay sharp, manage risk, and wait for confirmation.
Key Takeaways
CPI on Wednesday will determine market direction – 2.5%+ is a danger zone
S&P 500 at resistance – a breakout or rejection will shape equities
Bitcoin looks constructive, but ETF flows turned negative – caution
Apple's WWDC could ignite AI rotation
Smart money remains patient – so should you
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To a successful week ahead — and stay tuned for more weekly insights into the crypto and financial markets.
Stay focused. Stay rational.
Kind regards,
Don - Founder of Velaris Trading
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