Hey Trader,
Welcome to the weekly Velaris Trading Newsletter – your source for real market insight, no fluff, no noise.
Here’s this week’s newsletter breakdown:
Brief Overview
What’s coming in Week 25?
Week 25 is all about the upcoming Fed meeting on Wednesday. Rate cuts are not expected, but all eyes will be on Fed Chair Powell’s tone. Bitcoin remains stuck under heavy resistance, while geopolitical tensions and a potentially hawkish Fed increase the risk of further market losses. Retail sales data and leading indicators later in the week will also be key.
Weekly Market Recap
Week 24 was marked by high volatility: Bitcoin hit 110K before pulling back due to geopolitical tensions—especially Israel’s strike on Iranian nuclear facilities—while the brief easing in U.S.-China trade talks had only limited market impact. On the macro side, rising inflation data (CPI at 2.4%, PPI at 2.6%) and a jump in oil prices added uncertainty. However, weak economic data kept hopes for rate cuts alive. Technical warning signs like bearish divergences persisted.
Earnings Highlights
Lennar (LEN), Jabil (JBL), John Wiley & Sons (WLY), La-Z-Boy (LZB), Korn Ferry (KFY), GMS (GMS), Smith & Wesson (SWBI), Accenture (ACN), Kroger (KR), Darden Restaurants (DRI), and CarMax (KMX).
What does week 25 bring?
Monday, June 16
Empire State Manufacturing Index – A leading indicator for industrial activity in the U.S. Northeast, offering insight into investment and production trends.
Earnings: Lennar Corp. (LEN)
Tuesday, June 17
Retail Sales – A slight slowdown is expected; weak consumer data would be a deflationary signal.
Industrial Production – Provides clues about the pace of economic recovery.
NAHB Housing Market Index – A leading indicator for the U.S. housing sector.
Earnings: Jabil Inc. (JBL), John Wiley & Sons (WLY), La-Z-Boy Inc. (LZB)
Wednesday, June 18
FOMC Rate Decision – Rates expected to remain at 4.5%. Markets will focus on Powell’s language and the Dot Plot.
Building Permits & Housing Starts – Key housing market indicators.
MBA Mortgage Applications Index – Early signal of loan demand.
Earnings: Korn Ferry (KFY), GMS Inc. (GMS), Smith & Wesson (SWBI)
Thursday, June 19
Initial Jobless Claims – Forecast stable at 250K, indicating a strong labor market.
Earnings: None
Friday, June 20
Leading Indicators – Forecasts economic trends over the next 3–6 months.
Philadelphia Fed Index – Gauges sentiment and industrial conditions in the Eastern U.S.
Earnings: Accenture (ACN), Kroger (KR), Darden Restaurants (DRI), CarMax (KMX)
IMPORTANT: The expectations of the respective economic data may change in the course of the week. They will be updated in the Discord and will be discussed in more detail.
Weekly Market Wrap
Week 24 was extremely volatile. Bitcoin hit our forecasted zone at 106–108K, but faced heavy resistance at 110K. Meanwhile, U.S.–China trade talks offered only temporary relief—China approved rare earth exports for just six months, making markets cautious.
On the macro side, inflation was the dominant theme. CPI rose to 2.4%, slightly below expectations but higher than last month—suggesting disinflation may be on pause. PPI came in at 2.6%, and oil prices surged +7%. Despite that, rate cut hopes persisted, as weaker economic data pushed yields lower.
Then came the geopolitical shock on Thursday: Israel bombed Iranian nuclear sites—described by Prime Minister Netanyahu as a preemptive strike. Markets reacted immediately: the S&P fell below 6000, and Bitcoin dropped briefly to 102K.
From a technical standpoint, warning signs remain:
Bearish divergences on Bitcoin
BTC.D approaching 70%
TOTAL3 (altcoins) making lower lows
No structural basis for the so called “altcoin season” yet.
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Crypto & Market Outlook
All eyes are on the Fed meeting this Wednesday. No rate cut is expected—but the tone of Powell's comments will be crucial.
Bitcoin remains stuck under strong resistance. Without fresh capital inflows (e.g. ETF flows or a big buy from Michael Saylor), a breakout seems unlikely.
SPX under 6000 is a clear resistance level and still showing bearish divergence. If the Fed remains hawkish and geopolitical tensions escalate, sharper corrections are possible.
Key Catalysts to Watch:
Fed Rate Decision (June 18): No change expected, but market reaction will depend on tone and projections.
Retail Sales (June 17): Weak consumer spending would support rate cut expectations.
Leading Indicators & Philly Fed (June 20): Early signals for Q3 growth.
Bitcoin resistance & SPX at 6000: Crucial levels for market direction.
Geopolitical tensions (Israel/Iran): Any escalation could trigger a risk-off environment.
Conclusion
Markets are at a critical juncture. Both technically and fundamentally, caution is warranted—but targeted opportunities arise from extreme uncertainty. We remain strategic: lock in profits, avoid greed, and stick to clear risk controls.
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To a successful week ahead — and stay tuned for more weekly insights into the crypto and financial markets.
Stay focused. Stay rational.
Kind regards,
Don - Founder of Velaris Trading
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