Hey Trader,
Welcome to the weekly Velaris Trading Newsletter – your source for real market insight, no fluff, no noise.
Here’s this week’s newsletter breakdown:
Brief Overview
What’s coming in Week 25?
The week will be dominated by key macroeconomic data: especially the PCE on Friday, which could confirm the Fed’s restrictive stance if it rises above 2.2%. At the same time, a negative GDP growth figure on Thursday could reignite recession fears.
Bitcoin and the S&P 500 are hovering at critical support levels – without a strong catalyst, a correction may follow in this “higher for longer” environment combined with geopolitical pressure.
Weekly Market Recap
Week 25 was shaped by geopolitical uncertainty and monetary policy signals: Tensions in the Middle East drove oil prices higher, while the strong dollar was supported by Fed comments and a bullish divergence on the weekly chart. The SPX failed to hold the 6,000 mark and Bitcoin remained weak – but our community stayed calm, took profits in time, and prepared for targeted re-entries.
What does week 26
Monday, June 23
Existing Home Sales: Provides insight into the housing market – important for consumer behavior and credit conditions.
Earnings: FactSet (FDS), Commercial Metals (CMC), KB Home (KBH)
Tuesday, June 24
Consumer Confidence: Expected at 99 – a drop would signal rising risk aversion.
FHFA & Case-Shiller Home Price Index: Early indicators of potential price corrections in the U.S. housing market.
Earnings: Carnival (CCL), TD Synnex (SNX), FedEx (FDX), AeroVironment (AVAV), Worthington (WOR), BlackBerry (BB)
Wednesday, June 25
MBA Mortgage Applications
New Home Sales: Key indicator for construction activity and credit demand.
Earnings: Paychex (APYX), General Mills (GIS), NovaGold (NG), Winnebago (WGO), Micron (MU), Jefferies (JEF), Levi Strauss (LEVI), H.B. Fuller (FUL)
Thursday, June 26
Durable Goods Orders: Early indicator of investment willingness.
GDP (3rd Estimate): Expected at -0.2% – any negative surprise could trigger recession fears.
Initial Jobless Claims: Expected at 247K – gives clues about the health of the labor market.
Pending Home Sales
Earnings: McCormick (MKC), Walgreens (WBA), Acuity (AYI), Lindsay (LNN), Nike (NKE), National Beverage (FIZZ), Concentrix (CNXC)
Friday, June 27
PCE Prices: Expected at 2.2% – the Fed’s preferred inflation indicator.
Personal Income & Spending
Michigan Consumer Sentiment (Final): Expected at a weak 52 – signaling pressure on consumer confidence.
Earnings: Apogee (APOG), GreenPower (GP)
IMPORTANT: The expectations of the respective economic data may change in the course of the week. They will be updated in the Discord and will be discussed in more detail.
Weekly Market Wrap
Week 25 was a wake-up call for many bulls. Geopolitical tensions between Israel and Iran remain high – Trump announced he would decide within the next 14 days on potential military involvement. While diplomatic talks are ongoing in Geneva, reports of Iranian missile preparations show that the situation is far from de-escalation.
Oil prices rose significantly – mainly due to fears of escalation in the Persian Gulf. At the same time, the DXY remained strong, supported by a bullish divergence on the weekly chart and new Fed statements. The U.S. central bank raised its core inflation forecast to 3.1% and signaled a “Higher for Longer” approach – with seven members seeing no rate cuts in 2025.
The SPX was unable to hold the psychological 6,000 level and closed at 5,967 points. Bitcoin also lost momentum. The bearish divergence on the monthly chart remains intact – as does the potential strength of the dollar, which continues to put pressure on risk assets.
Our community was prepared: profits were taken in time, re-entries were set strategically. Now the motto is: stay focused, don’t panic, and avoid greed. The upcoming data – especially PCE, GDP, and sentiment – could bring clarity.
Are you not a member yet?
You’re missing out on daily signals, premium analysis & our trading academy.
Apply & join the waitlist → velaristrading.com
If you are accepted, you will get full access from day one.
Checkout or video
Market Outlook
This week will be dominated by Friday’s PCE – the Fed’s favorite indicator. A rise to 2.2% or above would confirm the restrictive policy path. At the same time, negative GDP growth on Thursday could bring back the first signs of recession.
Key Catalysts for the Week:
PCE Inflation (Friday): The Fed’s preferred inflation indicator. A print above 2.2% would reinforce the “Higher for Longer” stance and be bearish for equities and crypto.
GDP Estimate (Thursday): Negative growth would be an early recession signal, and is currently expected.
Durable Goods Orders & Personal Spending: Leading indicators of consumer sentiment and real demand.
DXY (U.S. Dollar Index): The dollar appears poised to strengthen over the coming weeks and months – historically a headwind for risk-on assets like tech and crypto.
SPX & BTC at Key Levels: Both are currently battling major support zones.
In a landscape of restrictive monetary policy and geopolitical risk (Israel/Iran), markets remain vulnerable to pullbacks. Unless there are clearly positive catalysts – such as diplomatic progress in the Middle East or unexpectedly weak inflation – downside risks dominate. The outlook for next week is therefore slightly bearish, with event-driven moves likely to shape direction.
Conclusion
Markets are currently moving sideways – momentum is fading and uncertainty is growing. Without clear signals from macro data or geopolitical events, the risk/reward setup remains limited. However, the upcoming reports on PCE and GDP have the potential to trigger a new trend.
Until then, the approach remains: caution over euphoria – a defensive stance is appropriate for now.
In our Discord, you’ll find daily detailed market analysis, trading signals, and live updates.
Ask your questions, connect with experienced traders, and learn step by step how to trade and invest independently.
👉 Join the Waitlist now→ Join here
To a successful week ahead — and stay tuned for more weekly insights into the crypto and financial markets.
Stay focused. Stay rational.
Kind regards,
Don - Founder of Velaris Trading
Membership
Telegram
Website
Support
This newsletter, this e-mail does not contain any financial advice.
Reply