Hey Trader,
Welcome to the weekly Velaris Trading Newsletter – your source for real market insight, no fluff, no noise.
Here’s this week’s newsletter breakdown:
Brief Overview
What’s Coming in Week 27
In Week 27, the focus is on US labor market data – especially the Nonfarm Payrolls Report on July 3 is likely to serve as the main driver for the markets: Weak figures could spark recession fears, strong ones could stoke rate concerns.
Weekly Market Wrap
In Week 26, a ceasefire after days of war fears led to a strong rally in the S&P 500, while macroeconomically, Jerome Powell’s statements on rates and inflation and a hot PCE report dominated.
What does week 27 bring?
Monday, June 30
Chicago PMI: Expected at 43 – leading indicator for the manufacturing sector.
Earnings: Progress Software (PRGS), Barnes & Noble Education (BNED), PetMed Express (PETS)
Tuesday, July 1
ISM Manufacturing Index: Expected at 48.8, continued weakness signals industrial contraction.
JOLTs Job Openings: Expected at 7.45 million, important for the US labor market trend.
Earnings: MSC Industrial (MSM), Constellation Brands (STZ), Greenbrier Companies (GBX)
Wednesday, July 2
ADP Employment Report: Expected at 80K, early indicator for the official labor market report.
MBA Mortgage Applications: Barometer for real estate loans.
Earnings: UniFirst (UNF), Radius Recycling (RDUS), Franklin Covey (FC)
Thursday, July 3
Nonfarm Payrolls: Expected at 129K
Unemployment Rate: Expected stable at 4.2%
Initial Claims: Expected at 239K – an increase could weigh on risk sentiment.
Earnings: None
Friday, July 4
US Independence Day – Markets closed.
IMPORTANT: The expectations of the respective economic data may change in the course of the week. They will be updated in the Discord and will be discussed in more detail.
Weekly Market Wrap
Week 26 was a prime example of the interplay between politics, macro, and market psychology. After days of war fears, a sudden ceasefire triggered an explosive rally in the S&P 500. New all-time highs at 6,167 points (+28% since our buy zone on Liberation Day) confirm: Headlines drive, but context decides.
On the macro side, Jerome Powell dominated with clear statements: Rate cuts are not off the table, but tariffs are fueling inflation. The PCE report confirmed this trend – all three core indicators (CPI, PPI, PCE) came in above expectations. Hopes for a rate cut in September are still alive, but increasingly shaky.
Crypto remains split. BTC dropped below 100K, touched our buy zones, and many altcoins were oversold – yet we held back intentionally. The bearish divergence remains active on both the monthly and weekly timeframes. Only a weekly close above 110.5K would give the all-clear. BTC.D showed the first bearish divergences – which could enable interesting swings during consolidation.
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Crypto & Market Outlook
From a macro perspective, Week 27 will be driven by labor market data. JOLTs, ADP, and especially the Nonfarm Payrolls Report on Thursday will determine the next market reaction. Numbers that are too weak could spark recession fears – overly strong data could reinforce rate concerns.
The technical setup remains tense. The S&P 500 could continue its rally – but with caution. In crypto, BTC might enter a calm sideways phase – which could open opportunities for ETH and midcaps.
Key Catalysts to Watch
Nonfarm Payrolls (July 3): Main trigger of the week – any deviation will be heavily weighted.
JOLTs + ADP (July 1 & 2): Leading indicators for labor market dynamics.
ISM Manufacturing (July 1): Weakness could hurt risk appetite.
Declining volume ahead of holiday week (July 4): Volatile moves possible in thin order books.
Conclusion
We’re in an environment that looks bullish – but remains fragile underneath. The big question is: How long can the market ignore bad news? Week 27 will bring clear answers – especially through US labor market data.
Key Takeaways
PCE above expectations = inflation pressure remains real
S&P 500 all-time high – but with declining volume
BTC technical divergences remain active
Nonfarm Payrolls = Weekly highlight
Altcoins could benefit short-term if BTC consolidates
Stay calm. Stay tactical.
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To a successful week ahead — and stay tuned for more weekly insights into the crypto and financial markets.
Stay focused. Stay rational.
Kind regards,
Don - Founder of Velaris Trading
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