Hey Trader,
Welcome to the weekly Velaris Trading Newsletter – your source for real market insight, no fluff, no noise.
Here’s this week’s newsletter breakdown:
Brief Overview
Weekly Market Wrap
Week 27 was short but impactful, with strong labor data reinforcing the Fed’s hawkish stance and briefly shaking risk assets, while the S&P 500 hit a new all-time high at 6,239 despite rising yields and FOMO-driven sentiment. Crypto showed weakness — Bitcoin rejected 110K and struggled to regain momentum, altcoins lagged, and bearish divergences remain intact as Don launched his first YouTube video on timing market tops and bottoms.
What’s Coming in Week 28
The spotlight turns to the Fed this week, with Wednesday’s FOMC Minutes potentially shaping sentiment ahead of next week’s CPI. Markets are watching for signs of inflation concern and unity around a possible September cut. Equities look overstretched and crypto is stalling — Bitcoin must reclaim 109K to regain momentum, while altcoins remain weak and ETF inflows fade. A pullback is possible with overheated RSI and fading rate cut hopes, but no major cracks have formed yet.
What does week 28 bring?
Monday, July 7
No economic reports
Earnings: None
Tuesday, July 8
Consumer Credit – Tracks borrowing and spending behavior of US households, a key metric for consumption resilience.
Earnings: Immersion Corp. (IMMR), Kura Sushi (KRUS), Penguin Solutions (PENG), Aehr Test Systems (AEHR), Quantum Corp. (QMCO)
Wednesday, July 9
MBA Mortgage Applications Index
Wholesale Inventories – Early signal on supply chain and corporate activity
FOMC Minutes – Crucial insight into Fed rate path and internal inflation debate
Earnings: AZZ Inc. (AZZ), Bassett Furniture (BSET)
Thursday, July 10
Initial Jobless Claims – Expected to confirm continued strength or hidden stress in labor market
Earnings: Delta Airlines (DAL), Conagra Brands (CAG), Simply Good Foods (SMPL), Helen of Troy (HELE), Levi Strauss (LEVI), Vista Energy (VIST), PriceSmart (PSMT), WD-40 Co. (WDFC)
Friday, July 11
Treasury Budget – Offers insight into fiscal balance, debt, and potential macro impact
Earnings: None
IMPORTANT: The expectations of the respective economic data may change in the course of the week. They will be updated in the Discord and will be discussed in more detail.
Weekly Market Wrap
Although Week 27 was shortened due to the July 4th holiday, it delivered a powerful macro punch. Labor data dominated headlines — JOLTs, and Nonfarm Payrolls all beat expectations. Most notably, the unemployment rate fell to 4.1% (vs. 4.3% expected), and NFP added 147,000 jobs, reinforcing the Fed’s hawkish lean. Risk assets briefly pulled back as markets digested the potential for delayed rate cuts, while the dollar and yields ticked higher.
Don’s base case remains: The first rate cut is still likely in September. Last week’s market reaction was more panic than positioning.
The S&P 500 shrugged off macro fear, closed the week at 6,239, and entered overbought territory with an RSI of 74 — levels last seen a year ago. Despite holiday-thinned volume, price action held firm. Sentiment remains FOMO-driven but technical fatigue is building.
Crypto was more fragile. Bitcoin rejected over 110K by the end of the week, fell back to 107500 support. A strong push above 109K is still needed to regain momentum. Otherwise, 103K remains in play. The weekly and monthly bearish divergences remain active, and bulls need a weekly close above 111K to invalidate at least the weekly bearish divergence.
Outside the markets, Don’s first YouTube video went live, walking through how to time tops and bottoms systematically — critical knowledge in a market that’s entering exhaustion mode.
How to time every top and bottom in crypto (Full Guide):
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Crypto & Market Outlook
The focus shifts back to the Fed. CPI is coming the following week, but the FOMC Minutes on Wednesday could front-run sentiment. We’ll be watching how concerned the Fed really is about sticky inflation — and how unified they are around a potential September cut.
Equities are extended. Crypto is stalling. The market desperately wants confirmation — but might need a breather first.
Bitcoin is in limbo: Below 109K = caution. Above = momentum back. Altcoins might rally in the the coming weeks with the bearish divergence playing out on BTC Dominance.
S&P could retest prior breakout levels if risk appetite cools. With RSI overheated and rate cut hopes pushed out, conditions are ripe for a pullback — but no structural cracks have appeared yet.
Key Catalysts to Watch:
FOMC Minutes (Wed) – Could confirm (or shake) the September cut narrative
S&P 500 RSI (74) – Extreme level. Watch for mean reversion or blow-off top
BTC 109K Resistance – Need to reclaim
Altcoin RSI & BTC.D – Still not favorable for rotation trades
Consumer Credit (Tue) – Early signal on demand slowdown or resilience
Conclusion
The macro setup is heating up, but the market is already stretched. The Fed holds the key — and this week gives us a preview through the FOMC minutes. Crypto needs more momentum. Equities need a breather. And traders need discipline.
Key Takeaways:
Strong labor data delays rate cut expectations
S&P 500 hit new ATH at 6,239 with RSI at 74 = caution
BTC rejected 110K, support at 105K, still vulnerable
FOMC minutes are the main macro event
Stay sharp. Don't get emotional. Patience pays when others chase.
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To a successful week ahead — and stay tuned for more weekly insights into the crypto and financial markets.
Stay focused. Stay rational.
Kind regards,
Don Diego - Founder of Velaris Trading
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