Hey Trader,
Welcome to the weekly Velaris Trading Newsletter – your source for real market insight, no fluff, no noise.
Here’s this week’s newsletter breakdown:
Brief Overview
Weekly Market Recap
Despite the usual summer lull, Week 28 was dominated by geopolitical tensions, Trump’s tariff escalation against BRICS-aligned countries, and mixed signals from the Fed. This shook market confidence and put pressure on tech stocks. At the same time, crypto showed strength: Bitcoin hit a new all-time high above $118,000, while altcoins gained dominance.
What’s Coming in Week 29
Week 29 kicks off with a packed macro and earnings calendar. After BTC’s explosive move and the new SPX all-time high, attention shifts back to key economic data like inflation (CPI, PPI), US consumer sentiment, and major earnings from banks and tech. This could be the week that decides whether we get a retest — or a continuation.
What does week 29 bring?
Monday, July 14
No economic reports
Earnings: Fastenal (FAST), FB Financial (FBK), Equity Bancshares (EQBK), Barnes & Noble Education (BNED), Simulations Plus (SLP)
Tuesday, July 15
CPI YoY expected at 2.6%, up from 2.4% last month – key focus on inflation
Empire State Manufacturing Index – early read on industrial activity
Earnings: JPMorgan (JPM), Wells Fargo (WFC), BlackRock (BLK), Citigroup (C), BNY Mellon (BK), State Street (STT), JB Hunt (JBHT), Omnicom (OMC), Pinnacle Financial (PNFP)
Wednesday, July 16
PPI YoY expected at +0.2% – signals price pressure in supply chains
MBA Mortgage Applications Index – consumer sentiment indicator
Earnings: Johnson & Johnson (JNJ), Bank of America (BAC), ASML (ASML), Morgan Stanley (MS), Goldman Sachs (GS), Progressive (PGR), Prologis (PLD), Kinder Morgan (KMI), United Airlines (UAL), Alcoa (AA)
Thursday, July 17
Retail Sales – critical consumer data
Business Inventories – supply chain insight
Initial Claims expected at 225K – labor market snapshot
Import/Export Prices, NAHB Housing Market Index, Philly Fed Index – all key for inflation & growth
Earnings: TSM, GE Aerospace, Novartis, Abbott Labs, PepsiCo, Cintas, Elevance Health, US Bancorp, Travelers, Netflix, Interactive Brokers, Western Alliance, Bank OZK
Friday, July 18
Building Permits & Housing Starts – construction sector in focus
University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment – sharp drop expected
Earnings: American Express (AXP), Charles Schwab (SCHW), 3M (MMM), Truist Financial (TFC), Schlumberger (SLB), Regions Financial (RF), Ally Financial (ALLY), Comerica (CMA)
IMPORTANT: The expectations of the respective economic data may change in the course of the week. They will be updated in the Discord and will be discussed in more detail.
Weekly Market Wrap
Week 28 came with impact. Despite summer calm, markets were shaped by geopolitical pressure, structural capital rotation, and clear technical reactions. With Trump’s 90-day tariff pause ending, the next round of escalation began: new tariffs starting in August, mainly targeting BRICS-linked countries. The export tariff threat didn’t fully hit global markets — but the uncertainty remains.
The FOMC minutes showed a split Fed. While a rate cut in September is still likely, persistent inflation keeps them cautious. Weak US bond auctions pushed yields higher, weighing on tech stocks.
Crypto was strong. Bitcoin reached a new ATH above 118K. RSI is overbought, but structurally the chart looks solid. BTC dominance continued to drop, while altcoins gained strength.
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Crypto & Market Outlook
Macro leads the game now. With CPI, PPI, Retail Sales, and Consumer Sentiment on deck, this week could be pivotal.
The key question: Is inflation sticking, or will we get confirmation for a September rate cut?
Bitcoin may be at a decision point — still in price discovery. Watching for HTF divergences to form. Structurally still bullish.
On the equity side, banks take center stage — their earnings will likely set the tone for Q3.
Key Catalysts:
CPI & PPI: Any surprise could reset expectations on rate cuts
Retail Sales & UoM Sentiment: Consumer data will hint at Q3 GDP strength
Bank & Tech Earnings: JPM, GS, NFLX, ASML — key for market sentiment
BTC Overheating: RSI overheating but structure looks still good.
SPX Monthly Divergence: A high timeframe warning while short-term still intact
Conclusion
Week 29 brings the perfect storm of macro volatility, sentiment shifts, and earnings reality.
For sharp traders, the signals are already there. The next few days could set the course for the rest of summer.
Key Takeaways:
CPI will define the path for rates — all eyes on Wednesday
BTC hit a new ATH — short-term bullish, long-term caution
SPX shows monthly divergence — reallocation could follow in the coming monhts
DXY weekly bullish divergence still in play
Earnings season begins — focus on banks and Netflix
Stay patient. Stay focused. No FOMO.
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To a successful week ahead — and stay tuned for more weekly insights into the crypto and financial markets.
Stay focused. Stay rational.
Kind regards,
Don - Founder of Velaris Trading
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