Hey Trader,
Welcome to the weekly Velaris Trading Newsletter – your source for real market insight, no fluff, no noise.
Here’s this week’s newsletter breakdown:
Brief Overview
Weekly Market Recap
In Week 30, the S&P 500 reached a new all-time high despite technical warning signs, driven by strong corporate earnings such as Alphabet’s $10 billion AI investment pledge, while divergences increasingly emerged beneath the surface. The crypto market also showed clear warning signs—Bitcoin formed a bearish divergence, Don issued early warnings and systematically called for profit-taking, and a historically reliable indicator is increasingly pointing to a potential trend reversal.
What’s Coming in Week 31
Week 31 is a macroeconomic minefield. The most important U.S. economic data of the month coincides with Big Tech earnings. FOMC meeting, GDP, PCE, and NFP—all of these data points will determine whether markets remain in Risk-On mode or shift into a summer correction. In crypto, divergences remain active, but the structure still looks solid. Tech stocks are on a knife’s edge. If Apple, Amazon, and Microsoft manage to beat already high expectations, markets could push higher in the short term. But any disappointment could trigger the first wave of sell-offs.
What does week 31 bring?
Monday, July 28
No economic data
Earnings: Cadence Design (CDNS), Waste Management (WM), Southern Copper (SCCO), Nucor (NUE), Revvity (RVTY), Welltower (WELL)
Tuesday, July 29
Consumer Confidence: Expected at 95.5 (previous 93) – A rise indicates continued confidence in the economy
FHFA Housing Price Index, S&P Case-Shiller Home Price Index: Show trends in the overheated U.S. housing market
Earnings: Boeing (BA), Spotify (SPOT), Starbucks (SBUX), Visa (V), UPS, EA, Merck (MRK), Procter & Gamble (PG), Booking Holdings (BKNG), Royal Caribbean (RCL)
Wednesday, July 30
ADP Employment Change: Expected at 75K – early indicator for the job market
FOMC Rate Decision: No rate cut expected, but forward guidance will be key
GDP (Advanced Reading): Forecast 2.5% growth – important indicator for economic momentum
MBA Mortgage Applications, Pending Home Sales
Earnings: Meta (META), Microsoft (MSFT), Qualcomm (QCOM), Arm (ARM), Robinhood (HOOD), Vertiv (VRT), ADP
Thursday, July 31
Chicago PMI, Initial Jobless Claims (expected: 220K)
PCE Inflation, Personal Income, Personal Spending – all key indicators for Fed rate outlook
Earnings: Apple (AAPL), Amazon (AMZN), Coinbase (COIN), Comcast (CMCSA), Abbvie (ABBV), Shell (SHEL), KKR, KLA
Friday, August 1
ISM Manufacturing Index
Nonfarm Payrolls: Expected at 102K (previous 147K)
Unemployment Rate: Expected at 4.2% (previous 4.1%)
University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment
Earnings: Exxon Mobil (XOM), Chevron (CVX), Colgate (CL), Dominion Energy (D), Motorola Solutions (MSI)
IMPORTANT: The expectations of the respective economic data may change in the course of the week. They will be updated in the Discord and will be discussed in more detail.
Weekly Market Wrap
Week 30 was a textbook example of trend strength versus technical warnings. The S&P 500 rose another 1.5% and set a new all-time high. The week was driven by strong earnings—like Alphabet’s $10B AI investment pledge—further fueling the Risk-On mode. But divergences beneath the surface are building. On a monthly basis, there are clear overbought warning signals. Bitcoin formed a confirmed bearish divergence on the daily chart—Don issued early warnings and systematically called for profit-taking. The short-term rebound was used to secure capital. One indicator came into focus: the VVIX to OTHERS ratio, which historically signals market tops. It is currently in the red zone—another sign of potential trend reversals in the coming weeks and months. The market appears overheated, but so far no high time frame (HTF) bearish signals have been confirmed. Notably, Open Interest is at a record high.
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Crypto & Market Outlook
Week 31 is a macroeconomic minefield. The most important U.S. economic data of the month coincides with Big Tech earnings. FOMC meeting, GDP, PCE, and NFP—all of these data points will determine whether markets remain in Risk-On mode or shift into a summer correction.
In crypto, higher time frames (HTF) still look solid. BTC dominance (BTC.D) could fall further and potentially form its first HTF bearish divergence in a long time. Both BTC and ETH still appear to have room to move higher before meaningful HTF bearish signals emerge. Open Interest is at an all-time high—a warning sign of potential flushes during high volatility.
Tech stocks are on a knife’s edge. If Apple, Amazon, and Microsoft beat already high expectations, we could see more upside in the short term. But any disappointment is likely to trigger the first round of sell-offs.
Key Catalysts to Watch:
FOMC (July 30): No rate cut – focus will be on language and forward guidance
PCE Inflation (July 31): The Fed’s favorite metric – higher = hawkish
Nonfarm Payrolls (August 1): A weak report could trigger risk aversion
Earnings from Apple, Amazon, Meta, Microsoft: Crucial for the tech sector
VVIX/OTHERS & Divergences: Early top indicators still active – keep watching
Conclusion
Week 31 will be decisive: if inflation and labor market data beat expectations, we could see new all-time highs. But any disappointment—whether in economic data or earnings—could lead to a brutal correction in these overbought markets. Don remains cautious, watching VVIX, divergences, and inflows closely—trading with strategy, not emotion.
Key Takeaways:
SPX: New ATH, but divergences persist
VVIX/OTHERS warning: Top indicator in the red zone
Week 31 = data + earnings monster – don’t rush
Secure profits, accumulate selectively on corrections
The market doesn’t reward greed—only discipline.
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To a successful week ahead — and stay tuned for more weekly insights into the crypto and financial markets.
Stay focused. Stay rational.
Kind regards,
Don - Founder of Velaris Trading
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