Hey Trader,
Welcome to the weekly Velaris Trading Newsletter – your source for real market insight, no fluff, no noise.
Here’s this week’s newsletter breakdown:
Brief Overview
Weekly Market Recap
Week 31 marked a key technical and psychological turning point: The altcoin rally came to an abrupt end, while BTC and ETH showed clear bearish divergences. On the macro side, weak labor market data and steady interest rates suggest a potential shift into risk-off mode. At Velaris, our early warning signals – from chart patterns to market metrics – once again proved reliable, allowing us to lock in profits near the local top.
What’s Coming in Week 32
Technical weakness, rising geopolitical tensions, and bearish divergences across BTC, ETH, and SPX point to further downside risk – especially in crypto, where Don plans to re-enter only at lower levels. Despite strong tech earnings and the prospect of rate cuts in the fall, caution currently dominates. Risks of stagflation, a strengthening dollar, and seasonal headwinds continue to pressure risk assets.
What does week 32 bring?
Monday, August 4
Factory Orders – A leading indicator for industrial demand. A slight decline is expected.
Earnings: Palantir (PLTR), MercadoLibre (MELI), Vertex (VRTX), ON Semiconductor (ON), Wayfair (W), BioNTech (BNTX), Axon (AXON), Tyson Foods (TSN), IDEXX (IDXX), Simon Property Group (SPG)
Tuesday, August 5
ISM Services Index – Expected to weaken; this is the key U.S. index for the services sector. A decline would support the “soft landing” narrative.
Earnings: AMD, Caterpillar (CAT), Super Micro (SMCI), Pfizer (PFE), Coupang (CPNG), Toast (TOST), Marriott (MAR), Eaton (ETN), Apollo Global (APO), Arista Networks (ANET), Duke Energy (DUK)
Wednesday, August 6
MBA Mortgage Applications – Reacts to rising mortgage rates. A leading indicator for consumer behavior in the housing market.
Earnings: Airbnb (ABNB), Uber (UBER), Disney (DIS), DoorDash (DASH), McDonald’s (MCD), AppLovin (APP), Energy Transfer (ET), Novo Nordisk (NVO)
Thursday, August 7
Initial Jobless Claims – Expected to remain stable at 250K. A critical data point for rate cut speculation by the Fed.
Earnings: Atlassian (TEAM), Sony (SONY), Eli Lilly (LLY), Brookfield (BN), EOG Resources (EOG), ConocoPhillips (COP), Flutter (FLUT), Parker-Hannifin (PH), Constellation Energy (CEG)
Friday, August 8
No major economic data
Earnings: Tempus AI (TEM), CleanSpark (CLSK), Avidity Biosciences (RNA), Plains GP Holdings (PAGP), Plains All American (PAA), Lamar Advertising (LAMR), Essent Group (ESNT)
IMPORTANT: The expectations of the respective economic data may change in the course of the week. They will be updated in the Discord and will be discussed in more detail.
Weekly Market Wrap
Week 31 was a clear turning point – technically and psychologically. The altcoin rally collapsed, just as anticipated. Don Diego warned early about bearish divergences on both the daily and monthly charts – especially for BTC, TOTAL, and ETH/BTC. The confirmed "Three Drives" structure in Bitcoin’s monthly chart served as a final macro warning.
The SPX is now also showing a confirmed monthly bearish divergence for the second time. The macro tone is clear: A stronger risk-off environment could develop over the coming months.
The FOMC meeting brought no rate change, but Powell’s comments hinted at flexibility for cuts in the fall. Uncertainty remains high: Q2 GDP surprised with 3% growth, yet Nonfarm Payrolls disappointed – including downward revisions for prior months. A paradox of strong economic output versus a weakening labor market.
In crypto, altcoins dropped 10–30%. BTC and ETH declined as well – a move we anticipated at Velaris. Daily chart divergences in both BTC and ETH aligned with our warning signals based on funding, open interest, VVIX/OTHERS, and dominance metrics (BTC.D, USDT.D). ETH/BTC remains a core signal.
Once again, we called a local top and took profits near the peak.
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Who we are
Crypto & Market Outlook
The focus now is on consolidation and increased caution. Bearish divergences remain active in major assets like BTC, ETH, and SPX. At the same time, stagflation risks persist, and the U.S. dollar is likely to strengthen through year-end into 2026.
Anyone buying impulsively now risks giving back profits out of greed – a mistake many made in the last cycle. For Bitcoin, Don still expects a retest of the previous all-time high. That would likely drive further pain in altcoins. While short-term bounces are possible, Don anticipates lower levels before re-entering.
Politics & Traditional Finance
Markets remain firmly in risk-off mode heading into the weekend. A brief morning rebound was wiped out by renewed geopolitical tensions: According to media reports, President Trump allegedly deployed two nuclear submarines to "relevant regions" in response to a warning from Dmitri Medvedev to the U.S.
So far, August is living up to its reputation as a seasonally weak month for equities. Beyond labor market worries, higher tariffs and their potential economic fallout are weighing on sentiment.
Positive takeaways:
The Fed may begin cutting rates in September, assuming inflation remains moderate.
Q2 earnings have been solid, especially in tech and AI – supporting the ongoing investment trend in artificial intelligence.
Next Week: Key Catalysts in Focus
With few major macro reports due, attention shifts to Q2 earnings from major companies, including:
AMD
Uber
Super Micro
Disney
Airbnb
Atlassian
Pfizer
Other key factors to watch:
ISM Services – A leading signal of economic cooling in the service sector
Initial Jobless Claims – Potential catalyst for Fed decisions
VVIX/OTHERS – Early indicators of profit-taking
Conclusion
Week 32 is shaped by consolidation, geopolitical risks, and technical weakness. While select sectors like AI tech show stability, the broader picture calls for caution. The coming weeks may determine whether we're heading into a deeper correction – or just a sideways phase.
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To a successful week ahead — and stay tuned for more weekly insights into the crypto and financial markets.
Stay focused. Stay rational.
Kind regards,
Don - Founder of Velaris Trading
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