Hey Trader,
Welcome to the weekly Velaris Trading Newsletter – your source for real market insight, no fluff, no noise.
Here’s this week’s newsletter breakdown:
Brief Overview
Weekly Market Recap
Markets started the week under pressure as BTC, ETH, TOTAL, and TOTAL2 fell on bearish divergences, overheated structures, and fears surrounding Jackson Hole, with Bitcoin sliding to $111K. Powell’s unexpectedly dovish speech at the summit revived rate-cut hopes, sparking a strong rebound in crypto and equities, while capital flows showed ETH strength but limited risk appetite in speculative altcoins.
What’s Coming in Week 35
Next week’s focus is on whether Powell’s dovish rally holds or fades, with Core PCE on Friday and Thursday’s GDP data set to determine if inflation is cooling or recession fears resurface. BTC hovers near 114K with ETH showing relative strength, but true capital rotation and broader equity momentum hinge on Nvidia, Snowflake earnings, and whether market breadth expands.
What does week 35 bring?
Monday, August 25
New Home Sales – Insight into housing demand, tied to rate sensitivity.
Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index – Regional health indicator, watch for contraction signals.
Building Permits – A leading indicator of construction activity.
Earnings: PDD Holdings (PDD), Heico Corp. (HEI)
Tuesday, August 26
Philly Fed Index – Measures manufacturing sentiment; weakness could reinforce dovish case.
Durable Goods Orders – Tracks long-term investment. A miss = potential slowdown.
Consumer Confidence – Expected to drop. Key for retail outlook.
Earnings: Bank of Montreal (BMO), KE Holdings (BEKE), MongoDB (MDB), Okta (OKTA), Box (BOX), PVH Corp. (PVH), JOYY Inc. (JOYY)
Wednesday, August 27
MBA Mortgage Applications Index – Ongoing housing demand check.
Earnings: Williams-Sonoma (WSM), J.M. Smucker (SJM), Abercrombie & Fitch (ANF), Foot Locker (FL), Kohl’s (KSS), Nvidia (NVDA), CrowdStrike (CRWD), Snowflake (SNOW)
Thursday, August 28
Initial Jobless Claims & Continuing Claims – Labor tightness updates.
GDP (QoQ, 2nd Estimate) – Expected to hold strong. Surprise miss could rattle markets.
Pending Home Sales – Reflects real estate demand shift.
Earnings: TD Bank (TD), Dollar General (DG), DICK’s Sporting Goods (DKS), Burlington Stores (BURL), Dell (DELL), Marvell (MRVL), Autodesk (ADSK), Affirm (AFRM), Ulta Beauty (ULTA)
Friday, August 29
Core PCE (Fed’s preferred inflation gauge) – Most important print of the week.
Personal Income & Spending – Key for inflation expectations.
U. Michigan Consumer Sentiment – Market reads into future inflation assumptions.
Earnings: Alibaba (BABA), Frontline (FRO)
IMPORTANT: The expectations of the respective economic data may change in the course of the week. They will be updated in the Discord and will be discussed in more detail.
Weekly Market Wrap
Markets moved in two distinct phases last week. The early days were marked by continued fallout from confirmed bearish divergences across BTC, ETH, TOTAL, and TOTAL2. Bitcoin slid to $111K, with sentiment weighed down by overheated structures, overleveraged longs, and fears surrounding the Jackson Hole summit.
But then came Friday — and everything changed. Jerome Powell’s speech at Jackson Hole turned out far more dovish than expected. He emphasized flexibility and acknowledged downside risks, reviving rate-cut expectations and triggering a broad risk-on reversal.
Bitcoin rebounded from the lows and rose but got rejected at it’s strong $117K-$118K resistance. Ethereum, with a new all time high, showed notable relative strength as ETH/BTC stabilized and volumes spiked, suggesting a smart money rotation into ETH. TOTAL and TOTAL2 reflected the same pattern: weakness early, strong recovery post-Powell. Speculative altcoins (OTHERS) still lagged, confirming capital remains conservative for now.
Traditional markets followed the same structure. The SPX was under pressure early due to hotter PPI prints and cautious positioning. But once Powell struck his tone, equities bounced sharply, ending the week higher. In politics, Ukraine support talks and DOJ-FBI news added geopolitical noise, but markets brushed it off in favor of macro clarity.
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The Secret To Our Consistent Results
Crypto & Market Outlook
This week’s theme: Validation or Reversal. After Powell’s relief rally, all eyes turn to hard data — especially Core PCE on Friday. If PCE confirms cooling inflation, the Fed’s dovish tone sticks. If not, markets could reverse quickly.
In crypto, BTC now trades back near 114K. But macro remains dominant. Without supportive data, the bounce risks fading. Ethereum holds strong, but ETH dominance must expand further to confirm true capital rotation. Speculative altcoins still lack bid, meaning institutions are not ready to rotate yet.
In stocks, the spotlight falls on Nvidia, Snowflake, and other tech giants reporting mid-week. Their guidance will help shape risk appetite, especially ahead of Friday’s PCE.
Key Catalysts to Watch
Core PCE (Friday) – Fed’s inflation benchmark. Bullish if soft, bearish if sticky.
GDP (Thursday) – Surprise downside could reignite recession fears.
Nvidia & Snowflake earnings – Tech leadership barometer.
BTC 114K & ETH/BTC ratio – Watch these closely for further rotation signs.
Equity breadth – If rally is narrow, it won’t last.
Conclusion
Week 35 brings confirmation. Was Powell’s dovish tone the start of something deeper — or just a head fake? Markets want to believe in soft landings and clean breakouts. But the data must back it up. Expect volatility, especially Thursday into Friday.
Key Takeaways
Powell’s Jackson Hole speech saved markets from breakdown.
Bitcoin bounced from 111K after bearish divergence played out.
ETH showed strength — but altcoins still lag.
Core PCE and GDP are the biggest market triggers this week.
Stay agile. Sentiment can shift fast in late-summer conditions.
Let’s stay sharp, disciplined, and positioned for both scenarios.
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To a successful week ahead — and stay tuned for more weekly insights into the crypto and financial markets.
Stay focused. Stay rational.
Kind regards,
Don - Founder of Velaris Trading
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