Hey Trader,
Welcome to the weekly Velaris Trading Newsletter – your source for real market insight, no fluff, no noise.
Here’s this week’s newsletter breakdown:
Brief Overview
Weekly Market Recap
Bitcoin and Ethereum lost momentum last week, with BTC rejecting 118K and sliding toward 108K, setting up for a likely break below 100K in September. Meanwhile, equities ended August mixed — the S&P 500 posted a fourth straight monthly gain, but sticky inflation keeps Fed cuts constrained, and political tensions over Fed independence pose longer-term risks.
What’s Coming in Week 36
Markets enter September with macro pressure building. After four green months in a row, SPX sits just below all-time highs while crypto continues to bleed. All eyes now turn to this week’s job data and ISM numbers for clarity on rate cuts and growth. Bitcoin remains below key levels — a breakdown toward 100K looks increasingly likely.
What does week 36 bring?
Monday, Sep. 1
Markets closed for Labor Day
No Earnings Reports
Tuesday, Sep. 2
ISM Manufacturing Index – Key signal for industrial demand.
Prices Paid & New Orders – Inflationary pressures + demand forward-look.
ISM Employment – First labor signal of the week.
Earnings: Nio (NIO), Signet Jewelers (SIG), ZScaler (ZS), HealthEquity (HQY)
Wednesday, Sep. 3
MBA Mortgage Applications Index – Refi and purchase demand trend.
JOLTs Job Openings – Key for Fed’s labor market read.
Durable Goods & Factory Orders – Outlook for capex and manufacturing.
Earnings: Dollar Tree (DLTR), Campbell’s (CPB), Macy’s (M), Salesforce (CRM), Figma (FIG), Hewlett Packard Enterprise (HPE), Credo Technology (CRDO)
Thursday, Sep. 4
ADP Employment Change – Private sector jobs estimate.
Challenger Job Cuts – Corporate layoff tracker.
Initial & Continuing Claims – Labor weakness confirmation?
ISM Services Index – Health of the largest part of US economy.
Prices Paid, New Orders, Employment (Services) – Inflation + hiring clues.
Earnings: Ciena (CIEN), VinFast (VFS), Broadcom (AVGO), Copart (CPRT), Lululemon (LULU), Samsara (IOT), DocuSign (DOCU)
Friday, Sep. 5
Nonfarm Payrolls – Expected to stay strong; a miss would fuel rate cut bets.
Unemployment Rate - Expected to come in at 4.3%, higher than last month.
Labor Force Participation Rate – Long-term trend monitor.
Earnings: ABM Industries (ABM)
IMPORTANT: The expectations of the respective economic data may change in the course of the week. They will be updated in the Discord and will be discussed in more detail.
Weekly Market Wrap
Last week ended August with mixed signals. On the traditional side, SPX saw early-week weakness followed by a Friday bounce, closing the month positive for the fourth straight time. Yet under the surface, inflation and labor data continue to box the Fed into a corner: both PCE and Core PCE came in line with expectations, confirming sticky inflation. Despite market optimism, it’s unlikely we’ll see more than a single 25bps cut soon — as reinforced by Jackson Hole.
In crypto, Bitcoin failed to hold the 118K resistance and sold off to 108K — our expected zone. The 3D bearish divergence spotted weeks ago played out perfectly. Ethereum followed, sliding down to 5,300. Trend-wise, both BTC and ETH lost momentum. Our HTF view has remained intact: we expect BTC to break below 100K in September, with key zones at 101K, 94K, and 87K.
On the political front, Trump’s attack on Fed Governor Lisa Cook sparked fresh debate about Fed independence. The markets didn’t panic, but with Fed credibility so tied to risk asset performance, anything undermining its autonomy is a long-term concern.
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The Secret To Our Consistent Results
Crypto & Market Outlook
This is a make-or-break week for both risk assets and central bank positioning. With SPX near all-time highs and BTC teetering near trendline breakdowns, incoming economic data will likely determine the next major move. The CPI report is still a week away — so all focus shifts to jobs and ISM data this week.
If job growth softens and ISM data confirms slowing services, markets may push for a more dovish Fed into Q4. But strong numbers will weaken the case for easing, possibly triggering downside in overextended equities. Crypto, meanwhile, lacks strong narratives or momentum. With ETF flows now negative and Bitcoin dominance declining, risk appetite is drying up fast.
Key Catalysts to Watch:
Nonfarm Payrolls (Friday) – If too strong, kills rate cut hopes short term.
ISM Manufacturing & Services – Will show how broad the slowdown really is.
JOLTs & ADP – Labor market heat check.
BTC 108K / 101K / 94K zones – Watch for potential capitulation.
SPX vs ATH – Will bulls push through or get rejected again?
Trump-Fed rhetoric – Adds headline risk, especially if Powell responds.
Conclusion
Markets are entering September stretched and uncertain. Equities have been climbing despite macro headwinds, but now the Fed’s room to maneuver is tightening. The path forward depends on this week’s data — especially Friday’s NFP report. For crypto, we stay cautious. ETF outflows, loss of trend, and rising macro stress signal deeper downside. Our playbook remains the same: stay out of chop, re-enter at key HTF zones, and avoid short-term emotional traps.
Key Takeaways:
BTC bearish trend confirmed – next key levels: 101K, 94K, 87K.
Ethereum follows BTC, trades near 5,300 with weak inflows.
PCE data neutral but not dovish enough – only one cut likely.
All eyes on NFP this Friday – market turning point.
SPX near ATH – but under surface, caution is building.
Let others chase noise. We trade facts.
Stay sharp. Stay patient.
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To a successful week ahead — and stay tuned for more weekly insights into the crypto and financial markets.
Stay focused. Stay rational.
Kind regards,
Don - Founder of Velaris Trading
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