Hey Trader,
Welcome to the weekly Velaris Trading Newsletter – your source for real market insight, no fluff, no noise.
Here’s this week’s newsletter breakdown:
Brief Overview
Weekly Market Recap
Bitcoin broke through the 116K mark in Week 37, while ETH and altcoins showed strength toward the end of the week. Overheated funding rates, record open interest, and altseason signals call for caution. Macro data, with falling PPI and stable CPI, supported the rally, and a 25 bps rate cut looks locked in. The key question is what policy path the Fed will signal at the FOMC.
What’s Coming in Week 38
Markets are kicking off with strong momentum, but the setup is clearly overheated. The FOMC meeting remains the key catalyst. A 25 bps cut is priced in, while rising funding rates, record OI, and the altseason narrative suggest we are close to another top. BTC is overbought, ETH continues to outperform, and alts show signs of greed. Technically and fundamentally, we are at a critical inflection point.
What does week 38 bring?
Monday, Sept 15
Empire State Manufacturing Index, an early indicator for industrial activity in the U.S. Northeast
Earnings: Dave & Buster’s (PLAY), Hain Celestial (HAIN), Immersion (IMMR), Ispire Tech (ISPR), Radiant Logistics (RLGT)
Tuesday, Sept 16
Retail Sales, Business Inventories, Capacity Utilization, Export and Import Prices, Industrial Production, NAHB Housing Market Index with Retail Sales and Industrial Production in focus
Earnings: Barnes & Noble Education (BNED), Brand House Collective (TBHC), Ferguson Enterprises (FERG), Nutex Health (NUTX), Spire Global (SPIR)
Wednesday, Sept 17
CPI aftereffects remain in focus
FOMC Rate Decision, with consensus expecting a 25 bps cut
Housing Starts, Building Permits, MBA Mortgage Applications, EIA Crude Oil Inventories
Earnings: Bullish Inc. (BLSH), General Mills (GIS)
Thursday, Sept 18
Philadelphia Fed Index, Jobless Claims, Leading Indicators, TIC Flows, EIA Natural Gas Inventories, important signals for the labor market and liquidity flows
Earnings: Cracker Barrel (CBRL), Darden Restaurants (DRI), FactSet (FDS), FedEx (FDX), Lennar Corp. (LEN), Rezolute (RZLT), Scholastic (SCHL)
Friday, Sept 19
No major economic data
Earnings: MoneyHero Ltd. (MNY)
IMPORTANT: The expectations of the respective economic data may change in the course of the week. They will be updated in the Discord and will be discussed in more detail.
Weekly Market Wrap
Bitcoin started the week strong and bounced fully off its bull market support band. By midweek BTC broke through resistance and traded above 116K, perfectly in line with our bullish LTF outlook from last week. On HTF, the structure remains bearish until the ATH level is reclaimed.
Ethereum and many altcoins showed relative strength against Bitcoin. Funding rates spiked, and open interest hit a new all-time high at over 94.5 billion dollars. The Altcoin Season Index now officially signals altseason. Taken together, this points to a leveraged and overheated market where caution and profit-taking are the smarter plays.
Spot ETF flows reinforced the bullish LTF case. Bitcoin ETFs saw over 2 billion dollars in inflows, while Ether ETFs attracted another 800 million.
U.S. Macro and Politics
The focus was on inflation data. PPI came in at 2.6 percent versus 3.3 percent expected, and Core PPI at 2.8 percent, both below forecasts. Headline CPI was 2.9 percent year over year, up from 2.7 percent last month, while Core CPI held steady at 3.1 percent, exactly in line with expectations.
Since both PPI and CPI fall under the BLS umbrella, the sharp drop in producer inflation carried significant weight. While smart money had largely priced in the softer PPI, it still gave markets breathing room. Equities pushed to fresh all-time highs, and the September 25 bps cut looks locked in. The bigger question is what the Fed signals for mid-term policy at the upcoming FOMC.
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The Secret To Our Consistent Results
Crypto & Market Outlook
Markets enter Week 38 with momentum but also in an overheated setup. The FOMC on Wednesday is the absolute key. A 25 bps cut is widely expected, while 50 bps would be a surprise move. Should Powell stick to a dovish stance and emphasize data dependency, SPX and BTC could extend their momentum.
Optimism in crypto is running high, supported by weak labor market data and softer-than-expected PPI prints. However, next week’s rate cut is already mostly priced in. Now caution is warranted. OI is high, funding rates are overheated, and everyone is calling for altseason, usually a sign we are near a top.
Bitcoin is overbought, ETH is outperforming, and alts are showing greed. While the LTF chart looks bullish, the HTF structure remains bearish, with a clear 3D divergence and everything pressed against resistance. Technically and fundamentally, we are at a critical turning point.
Key Catalysts to Watch
FOMC Rate Decision on Wednesday: A 25 bps cut is priced in, 50 bps would be a surprise. The key will be how dovish Powell sounds and what the Dot Plot signals for the months ahead.
Retail Sales and Industrial Production on Tuesday: Crucial leading indicators for U.S. demand and production, any deviation could shift Fed expectations.
Open Interest, Funding, and the Altseason narrative: Sentiment is overheated. OI at record highs, funding stretched, and altseason talk everywhere, usually a contrarian warning.
ETF Flows: Inflows equal confidence and new capital in the market. Outflows point to profit-taking and early exit signals.
Conclusion
Week 38 will decide whether we are in for one final push or a long-overdue correction. Technical setups are stretched, sentiment is euphoric, while macro data has softened. A 25 bps cut is largely priced in, and anything more would have major market impact. Our focus remains on discipline, partial profit-taking, and clearly defined re-entry zones.
Key Takeaways
BTC above 116K is short-term bullish, but HTF remains fragile with divergences.
ETH and altcoins are outperforming, with the altseason narrative fueling euphoria.
Open Interest and funding are overheated, clear caution signals.
ETF inflows are still positive, but early profit-taking is emerging.
The FOMC decision is the main catalyst for continuation or breakdown.
This is not the time for emotions.
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To a successful week ahead — and stay tuned for more weekly insights into the crypto and financial markets.
Stay focused. Stay rational.
Kind regards,
Don - Founder of Velaris Trading
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