Hey Trader,
Welcome to the weekly Velaris Trading Newsletter – your source for real market insight, no fluff, no noise.
Here’s this week’s newsletter breakdown:
Brief Overview
Weekly Market Recap
Bitcoin and Ethereum fell sharply alongside altcoins as leveraged positions were flushed after the Fed’s rate cut, ETFs showed mixed flows, U.S. equities softened, and regulatory plus Fed signals reinforced a cautious, risk-off environment with smart money accumulating majors on dips.
What’s Coming in Week 40
Week 40 hinges on key U.S. economic data that could shift Fed expectations, while Bitcoin risks deeper downside below 108K, altcoins continue to weaken, and markets watch payrolls, ISM reports, ETF flows, oil prices, and political tensions as major catalysts.
What does week 40 bring?
Monday September 29
Pending Home Sales
Earnings Reports include Carnival Corp, Jefferies Financial, IDT Corp, Progress Software, Vail Resorts
Tuesday September 30
Chicago PMI, Consumer Confidence
FHFA Housing Price Index and S&P Case-Shiller Home Price Index
Earnings Reports include Lamb Weston, Nike, Paychex, United Natural Foods
Wednesday October 1
ADP Employment Change and Construction Spending
ISM Manufacturing Index and EIA Crude Oil Inventories
MBA Mortgage Applications Index
Earnings Reports include Acuity, Cal-Maine Foods, Conagra Brands, Levi Strauss, RPM International
Thursday October 2
Initial Jobless Claims and Continuing Claims
Factory Orders and EIA Natural Gas Inventories
Earnings Reports include AngioDynamics and Trilogy Metals
Friday October 3
Nonfarm Payrolls and Unemployment Rate
Average Hourly Earnings and Average Workweek
ISM Services Index
No major earnings reports
IMPORTANT: The expectations of the respective economic data may change in the course of the week. They will be updated in the Discord and will be discussed in more detail.
Weekly Market Wrap
Crypto Market Recap: Bitcoin, Ethereum, Altcoins & Smart Money
Bitcoin opened the week near 115.3K and closed around 109.7K. It reached a weekly high of 115.4K on September 22 before sliding to a low of 108.7K on September 27. I shorted Bitcoin in the 116K to 118K zone and it worked out perfectly well, with price following through into lower levels. The rejection confirmed resistance in this area and I continue to expect deeper targets below 100K in the weeks ahead. Monday’s sharp flush saw more than 1.5B in leveraged positions liquidated after the recent Fed rate cut, which cleared excess positioning and set the stage for further downside.
Bitcoin Short Setup
Ethereum underperformed. ETH began the week near 4.45K and finished around 4.03K, with a high at 4.46K and a low at 3.82K. Selling pressure was most visible on Monday’s drop, where large-cap alts like SOL and XRP also slipped, posting daily losses of 7% and 3 to 4% respectively. By the end of the week ETH stabilized, but the broader altcoin complex showed no decisive rotation against Bitcoin.
Ethereum 1D chart
With Bitcoin going down Bitcoin dominance naturally rose up to 59%, showing that capital flows have shifted to a more risk-off enviroment. ETF flows highlighted the cautious stance of institutions. U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs registered heavy outflows early in the week, including a single-day withdrawal of 363M on September 22. Yet CoinShares’ prior week data had shown strong inflows into both BTC and ETH products, underscoring how larger players continue to accumulate the majors even as short-term positioning gets flushed.
Traditional Markets Snapshot
U.S. equities softened after several record closes earlier this month. The S&P 500 fell 0.3% and the Nasdaq slipped 0.7% over the week, while the Dow was nearly flat. August PCE data came in broadly in line with expectations at 0.3% month over month, keeping core inflation at 2.9% year over year. Treasury yields held near 4.2% and the dollar strengthened slightly, weighing on risk sentiment.
Politics & Regulation
Political headlines circled around the looming September 30 government funding deadline, keeping fiscal risk in focus. On the regulatory front, the SEC and CFTC announced a joint roundtable for September 29 on harmonizing oversight, while the SEC also finalized further delays on certain Form PF compliance dates. Discussions continued around spot crypto ETF frameworks after the prior week’s approval of generic listing standards, reinforcing the sense that regulation is slowly opening the door to broader crypto products.
Federal Reserve & Smart Money Signals
Markets continued to digest the Fed’s September rate cut, which many analysts framed as a hawkish cut, easing while signaling caution. The August PCE release reinforced the narrative of gradual disinflation, giving the Fed room to maneuver further if needed. For crypto, the mix of long-only ETF inflows in prior weeks and leveraged liquidations this week paints a picture of smart money buying dips while short-term traders are forced out.
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The Secret To Our Consistent Results
Crypto & Market Outlook
Week 40 is all about data. CPI, PMI, ADP, and Nonfarm Payrolls will determine whether the Fed remains in wait-and-see mode or if new narratives start forming. Any signs of labor market softness or slowing wage inflation could reignite rate cut expectations.
Bitcoin remains in a high-risk zone. A break below 108K could trigger further downside toward 100K and possibly lower. Just 1-2 weeks ago everyone screamed or an altcoin season and now altcoins are bleeding against Bitcoin. My expectations is that Bitcoin Dominance will rise even more throughout the next few weeks.
Key Catalysts to Watch
Nonfarm Payrolls on Friday
ISM Manufacturing and ISM Services reports
ETF flows and BTC dominance
Oil prices and inflation pressure
Political tension from Trump and global trade rhetoric
Conclusion
Markets are at a critical inflection point. Economic data this week will determine whether risk-on sentiment can return or if the correction deepens. Now is not the time for blind optimism. It is time for precise execution, disciplined positioning, and emotional control.
Key Takeaways
Bitcoin short from 116K to 118K played out perfectly and still going
Week 40 macro data will shape Q4 expectations
ETF flows weak and funding rates declining
Altcoins may offer selective upside but caution remains key
After weeks of sharing the warning signs and taking profits we have been rewarded.
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To a successful week ahead — and stay tuned for more weekly insights into the crypto and financial markets.
Stay focused. Stay rational.
Kind regards,
Don - Founder of Velaris Trading
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