Hey Trader,
Welcome to the weekly Velaris Trading Newsletter – your source for real market insight, no fluff, no noise.
Here’s this week’s newsletter breakdown:
Brief Overview
Weekly Market Recap
Bitcoin and the entire crypto market suffered the largest liquidation in history, with nearly $20 billion wiped out within minutes after Trump’s new U.S.–China tariff announcement triggered panic across global markets, sending BTC down to $100K, altcoins to 2023 lows, and risk assets sharply lower worldwide.
What’s Coming in Week 42
This week’s outlook centers on inflation data and major bank earnings, which will determine whether the recent Bitcoin and equity selloff marks the start of a broader bear market or a temporary correction, with BTC structure still bearish, dominance rising, and altcoins remaining highly vulnerable.
What does week 42 bring?
Monday, October 13
No major economic data
Earnings: Fastenal Co. (FAST), Lifecore Biomedical (LFCR), Spire Global (SPIR)
Tuesday, October 14
No major economic data
Earnings: Albertsons (ACI), America Movil (AMX), BlackRock (BLK), Citigroup (C), Domino’s Pizza (DPZ), Goldman Sachs (GS), JPMorgan Chase (JPM), Wells Fargo (WFC)
Wednesday, October 15
Consumer Price Index (CPI) – Rising inflation could lead to stagflation
Empire State Manufacturing Index – Insight into regional business activity
MBA Mortgage Applications Index – Watch for impact of rising rates
Earnings: Abbott Labs (ABT), ASML Holding (ASML), Bank of America (BAC), Citizens Financial (CFG), J.B. Hunt (JGHT), Morgan Stanley (MS), PNC Financial (PNC), United Airlines (UAL)
Thursday, October 16
Retail Sales – Signals consumer strength or weakness
Producer Price Index (PPI) – Important to see with tariffs going on
Initial Jobless Claims – Anything below 300K is fine
Philadelphia Fed Index – Manufacturing gauge
Earnings: BNY Mellon (BK), Charles Schwab (SCHW), CSX (CSX), Interactive Brokers (IBKR), KeyCorp (KEY), Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM), Travelers (TRV), US Bancorp (USB)
Friday, October 17
Building Permits – Housing activity data
Earnings: Ally Financial (ALLY), American Express (AXP), Autoliv (ALV), Comerica (CMA), Fifth Third Bancorp (FITB), Huntington Bancshares (HBAN), Regions Financial (RF), Schlumberger (SLB), State Street (STT), Truist Financial (TFC)
IMPORTANT: The expectations of the respective economic data may change in the course of the week. They will be updated in the Discord and will be discussed in more detail.
Weekly Market Wrap
Crypto Market Recap: Bitcoin, Ethereum, Altcoins & Smart Money
Bitcoin had its biggest liquidation event in history this week. Almost 20 billion dollars were liquidated across the crypto market in just a few minutes. For perspective, the second largest liquidation ever recorded was only 2.23 billion, and during the COVID crash only 1.2 billion were liquidated. The reason for this massive wipeout was the announcement of new U.S.–China tariffs from President Trump, which immediately triggered panic and cascading liquidations. But such a move was likely also coordinated by large market makers to hunt liquidity across the board.
The entire crypto market got wiped out in a matter of hours. Bitcoin fell from above 125K all the way down to 100K before recovering to around 112K by the weekend. My 25x short from the 116K to 125K zone printed perfectly, as planned. Many altcoins collapsed to their 2023 lows, and several long-term orders were triggered during the crash.
Bitcoin dominance spiked rapidly over 60% and even touched 62% during the liquidation event. I had predicted this rise weeks ago, and I still believe BTC dominance will continue to move higher in the short term. Some coins have now returned to major higher-timeframe range lows, suggesting they could be clean for a potential move higher, but I will wait for price action to confirm. With both a bearish weekly and monthly divergence now in place, this could also be the early stage of a larger bear market. The next weekly close will be critical.
Ethereum fell even more sharply than Bitcoin. It dropped right to the bull market support band, which technically could pave the way for a new all-time high later if the level holds, but nothing is confirmed yet. The structure still looks heavy and depends entirely on how the next few days unfold.
The market correction was overdue. Maybe not to this magnitude or with this level of forced liquidations, but it was clear that crypto had become overheated and extremely euphoric. Many traders ignored the signs and paid the price. Most of those who were overleveraged have now lost everything. Stay safe and trade with discipline.
Traditional Markets Snapshot
Traditional markets sold off sharply this week. The S&P 500 fell more than 2.5 percent as renewed tariff tensions between the United States and China spooked investors. Gold and silver rallied strongly as capital rotated toward safety, making Bitcoin look weak compared to the “digital gold” narrative that many believed in.
Politics & Regulation
In politics, President Trump’s comments on China dominated headlines. He stated that China has become “very hostile” and is using its control over rare earth materials as leverage. Trump said there is “no reason” to meet President Xi in the coming weeks and confirmed he is preparing a “massive increase in tariffs” on Chinese products. He also mentioned that many other countermeasures are under serious consideration. These statements triggered broad risk-off sentiment across global markets, sending U.S. stocks to weekly lows and igniting one of the most violent liquidations in crypto history.
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The Secret To Our Consistent Results
Crypto & Market Outlook
This week is all about inflation and earnings. CPI and PPI will set the tone for rate expectations going into Q4. If inflation runs hot again, the correction we saw in Bitcoin and equities could be the start of a bear market. If it surprises to the downside, we might get temporary relief but the macro chart damage is already done. Structure was broken and BTC has a confirmed monthly and weekly bearish divergence. Without invalidation we are going nowhere.
On the earnings side, the banks are in focus. With JPM, Goldman, Morgan Stanley, and Bank of America reporting, we’ll get a clearer view on liquidity, lending, and credit spreads. If they paint a grim picture, the next wave down could hit fast.
Bitcoin is still sitting below key resistance and dominance continues to rise. Ethereum visited the bull market support band paving it’s way for new all time highs if somehow this bull market continues. Alt coins remain vulnerable and should only be approached with extreme selectivity and post-structure confirmation.
Key Catalysts to Watch
CPI and PPI inflation data – critical for Fed outlook and market volatility
US bank earnings – insight into systemic health and liquidity
Retail sales and consumer sentiment – the pulse of the economy
Bitcoin dominance – still rising, confirming bearish outlook for alt coins
Price action around BTC 108K-112K – reclaim or rejection zone
Trump’s trade rhetoric – a wildcard for all markets
Conclusion
The euphoria seems to be gone for many but I still see a lot of hope in the market. But this is a different market now. Billions have been liquidated. Discipline, structure, and capital preservation are more important than ever. The macro backdrop is uncertain, inflation is sticky, and geopolitics are heating up. That said, chaos always creates opportunity – if you know what to look for and stay unemotional.
Key Takeaways
Bitcoin printed the biggest liquidation in history – 20 billion wiped
BTC dominance spiked over 60%, confirming bearish stance on alt coins
S&P 500 sold off while gold rallied – flight to safety is real
CPI and PPI this week are critical for near-term trend
This could be the start of a larger bear leg – wait for confirmation
No FOMO. No guessing. Just structure and edge.
Stay sharp. Stay liquid. Stay patient.
And congratulations to everyone that followed my analysis warning of this correction and shorting.
Diego
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To a successful week ahead — and stay tuned for more weekly insights into the crypto and financial markets.
Stay focused. Stay rational.
Kind regards,
Don - Founder of Velaris Trading
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