Hey Trader,
Welcome to the weekly Velaris Trading Newsletter – your source for real market insight, no fluff, no noise.
Here’s this week’s newsletter breakdown:
Brief Overview
Weekly Market Recap
Bitcoin ended the week near $113.5K after a failed breakout and sharp midweek dip, Ethereum and altcoins remained weak, USDT dominance approached key resistance near 5%, volatility cooled as the VIX fell to 16, and the S&P 500 hit new highs, highlighting that Bitcoin’s struggles stem from deeper factors than recent tariff news.
What’s Coming in Week 44
This pivotal week centers on the Fed’s rate decision, PCE inflation data, and Big Tech earnings, all of which could dictate Q4’s tone, with equities showing strength, crypto still cautious, and markets bracing for volatility driven by macro shifts and key support levels.
What does week 44 bring?
Monday, October 27
Durable Goods Orders — an early signal for business investment and industrial activity
Earnings: Alliance Resource Partners, Bank of Hawaii, Cadence Design Systems, Carter's, Daqo New Energy, Keurig Dr Pepper, Nucor, Waste Management
Tuesday, October 28
Consumer Confidence — key for market psychology in a high-volatility environment
FHFA Housing Price Index
S&P Case-Shiller Home Price Index — measures home price trends in top 20 US cities
Earnings: American Tower, Booking Holdings, Corning, Ecolab, Electronic Arts, Nextera Energy, Seagate Technology, UnitedHealth Group, UPS, Visa
Wednesday, October 29
Advanced International Trade in Goods and Retail Inventories — early GDP and supply chain indicators
FOMC Rate Decision — Fed statement and tone will drive risk sentiment
Earnings: Agnico Eagle Mines, Alphabet, ADP, Boeing, Caterpillar, CVS, Meta Platforms, Microsoft, Starbucks, ServiceNow, Verizon
Thursday, October 30
Q3 GDP Advance Estimate — markets will watch for signs of slowing growth
Initial Jobless Claims
Earnings: Amazon, Apple, Anheuser-Busch, Coinbase, Comcast, Eli Lilly, Gilead Sciences, Mastercard, Merck
Friday, October 31
Chicago PMI — leading indicator for manufacturing activity
Core PCE and Headline PCE — the Fed’s preferred inflation gauges
Personal Income and Personal Spending
Earnings: Abbvie, AON, Canadian National Railway, Chevron, Colgate-Palmolive, Dominion Energy, ExxonMobil, WW Grainger
IMPORTANT: The expectations of the respective economic data may change in the course of the week. They will be updated in the Discord and will be discussed in more detail.
Weekly Market Wrap
The week started with Bitcoin at 111K and is ending around 113.5K after a failed breakout attempt midweek. Bitcoin tried to push higher but was sharply rejected at 114K, making a low near 106K before recovering into the weekend. The weekly bearish divergence remains intact and the RSI on the weekly chart is now sitting at key support around the 50 level. The 107K zone has become an important area to watch for support.
Ethereum showed similar behavior, with slow and indecisive price action throughout the week. ETH tried to break above 4100 but failed to close convincingly above that level. Most altcoins continue to trade within bearish structures and show no real signs of strength yet.
USDT dominance, on the other hand, keeps declining and is now hovering around the 5 percent mark which is a big resistance zone. If this level breaks, we could see Bitcoin head back toward 100K in the coming weeks.
The volatility index VIX is back down to 16, showing that markets have cooled off again after the recent chaos. The S&P 500 finished the week at new all time highs, completely recovering from the tariff news that triggered panic earlier in the month. Meanwhile Bitcoin remains far below its pre-crash levels, which confirms that the tariff headlines were not the true cause behind the historic October 10th liquidation.
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The Secret To Our Consistent Results
Crypto & Market Outlook
This is one of the most pivotal weeks of the quarter. All eyes are on the Fed. Markets expect near 100% chance of a rate cut of 25 BPS, but the tone of the statement will be critical. A dovish shift could push risk assets higher. A hawkish surprise could slam equities and crypto alike.
On Friday, PCE and Core PCE data will give the Fed more ammo. If inflation is sticky, markets will have to reprice the soft landing narrative.
Big Tech earnings will add another layer of volatility. Microsoft, Alphabet, Meta, Amazon, and Apple all report this week. Their forward guidance could shift sentiment across all sectors — especially if consumer or ad spending shows cracks.
Key Catalysts to Watch
FOMC Rate Decision — the Fed’s tone will dictate whether risk-on continues
PCE and Core PCE — inflation stickiness would pressure both equities and crypto
Q3 GDP Advance Estimate — growth slowdown could signal stagflation
Big Tech Earnings — market leadership is on the line
USDT Dominance — a rejection at 5% could give BTC some relief
SPX and VIX — looking positive
Conclusion
Week 43 could set the tone for the rest of Q4. Technicals and macro are colliding. While equities look strong on the surface, crypto remains hesitant. We stay cautious but ready — with a clear edge from both smart money signals and market structure.
Key Takeaways
BTC trying to break out again out of it’s bearish downward trend
ETH and alts remain weak as BTC.D goes up
Fed rate decision and PCE are the main market movers this week
Tech earnings could shift everything
Stay sharper than ever. The next few weeks will be pivotal.
Best,
Diego
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To a successful week ahead — and stay tuned for more weekly insights into the crypto and financial markets.
Stay focused. Stay rational.
Kind regards,
Don - Founder of Velaris Trading
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