Hey Trader,
Welcome to the weekly Velaris Trading Newsletter – your source for real market insight, no fluff, no noise.
Here’s this week’s newsletter breakdown:
Brief Overview
Weekly Market Recap
Week 44 was a classic “fade the news” setup. Despite a Fed rate cut and the end of quantitative tightening, markets sold off sharply. Bitcoin rejected key resistance, equities gave back all gains, and the dollar surged. Risk assets are now at a critical point with technical divergences still intact and liquidity still tight.
What’s Coming in Week 45
Labor data this week will determine whether the Fed can ease further, with weak job growth potentially reviving hopes for a December rate cut, while Bitcoin and risk assets remain pressured amid technical weakness, ETF outflows, and tight liquidity.
What does week 45 bring?
Monday, November 3
• Construction Spending – Insight into building activity and capital investment
• ISM Manufacturing Index – Key measure of manufacturing health and growth slowdown signals
• Earnings: Ares Management, BioNTech, BWX Technologies, Palantir, Simon Property Group, Vertex Pharmaceuticals, Williams Companies
Tuesday, November 4
• Factory Orders – Reflects business demand and supply chain strength
• Trade Balance – Impacts GDP growth outlook and currency pressure
• Earnings: AMD, Amgen, Arista Networks, Coupang, Eaton, Pfizer, Shopify, Spotify, Uber
Wednesday, November 5
• ADP Employment Change – Expected at 25K, showing further labor market cooling
• ISM Services – A major signal for consumer-driven sectors
• MBA Mortgage Applications Index – Real estate sentiment and interest rate sensitivity
• Earnings: AppLovin, Arm Holdings, Cameco, Cencora, DoorDash, Humana, Johnson Controls, McDonald's, Novo Nordisk, Qualcomm, Robinhood
Thursday, November 6
• Initial Jobless Claims – Monitored for early signs of labor market weakness
• Earnings: Airbnb, AstraZeneca, ConocoPhillips, Cummins, EOG Resources, Expedia, Trade Desk, TransDigm, Vistra
Friday, November 7
• Nonfarm Payrolls – High-impact release, shapes Fed expectations
• Unemployment Rate – Forecast at 4.3%
• Consumer Credit – Indicates household confidence and spending ability
• University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment – First signal for November confidence levels
• Earnings: Brookfield Asset Management, Constellation Energy, Duke Energy, Enbridge, Franklin Resources, KKR, Ubiquiti, YPF
IMPORTANT: The expectations of the respective economic data may change in the course of the week. They will be updated in the Discord and will be discussed in more detail.
Weekly Market Wrap
Crypto & Traditional Markets
We opened the week strong after a Sunday rally that pushed Bitcoin to 114.5K, but the momentum quickly faded. Price was rejected twice at the 116K resistance and dropped to a weekly low of 106.5K. Over the last two days, Bitcoin has been ranging around 110K with no clear breakout in sight. The weekly bearish divergence remains intact and the RSI is sitting right on the 50 support level on the weekly chart, a key area to watch in the coming sessions.
Ethereum followed a similar path. It started the week with strength but lost momentum midweek, falling to 3.7K and now consolidating around 3.8K. Bitcoin dominance continued its climb, now approaching 60 percent, showing ongoing strength in BTC compared to altcoins as expected.
Gold experienced a sharp drop during the week, falling below 4K to 3,886 before reclaiming the level and closing back above 4K, right on an important support zone. The S&P 500 rallied to new all time highs earlier in the week but gave back all of its gains on Thursday and Friday, closing near 6840. Meanwhile, the dollar index showed renewed strength and is now testing the 100 level. If DXY breaks and holds above 100, it would likely pressure risk assets including crypto and equities.
FOMC Recap
The Federal Reserve announced a 25 basis point rate cut, as widely expected, and confirmed that it will stop shrinking its balance sheet in December. Despite this, markets sold off and the dollar surged. There are two reasons for this reaction. First, ending quantitative tightening isn’t a major shift. Money supply dynamics, which truly drive markets, remain unchanged. Stocks had already priced in these decisions long before the meeting.
Second, Powell’s comments hinted that another rate cut in December isn’t guaranteed. He emphasized flexibility and data dependence, which disappointed investors who expected a clear signal for continued easing. The dollar’s strength following the announcement shows that markets had already priced in the rate cut and QT end, so there was no new bullish catalyst to push risk assets higher.
Many crypto influencers expected markets to pump after the FOMC because of the end of QT. But ending QT doesn’t mean that QE is starting. It’s crucial to understand the deeper economic context, not just the headlines. Without a real increase in money supply, this decision won’t have a lasting impact on liquidity or valuations in the short term. The economy remains tight, and the reaction of the dollar and equities reflects that reality.
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The Secret To Our Consistent Results
Crypto & Market Outlook
The next few days revolve around labor data. ADP on Wednesday and Nonfarm Payrolls on Friday will give us key clues on how much room the Fed has to ease further. If job growth weakens and unemployment ticks up, markets might begin to price in a December cut again. If not, risk assets could remain under pressure.
Bitcoin is in no-man’s land technically. It needs a breakout above 116K to flip momentum. Until then, the bearish divergence and ETF outflows suggest caution.
Tech earnings continue this week, but without a clear macro tailwind, upside is limited.
Key Catalysts to Watch
• Nonfarm Payrolls and Unemployment Rate – Major Fed signal indicators
• DXY at 100 – A breakout would weigh on crypto and stocks
• Bitcoin RSI on the weekly – The 50 line is make or break for bulls
• Continued ETF outflows – Institutional buyers are selling
• Large-cap earnings – Watch for weak forward guidance as a warning sign
Conclusion
Liquidity is still the core issue. A rate cut without money printing is cosmetic. Without fresh capital flowing in, rallies will be short-lived. Bears aren’t fully in control, but bulls have lost momentum. Week 45 could be the turning point, especially if labor data disappoints or the dollar strengthens further.
Key Takeaways
• Bitcoin rejected 116K twice, still consolidating near 110K
• Bearish divergence and weak inflows still active
• SPX gave up all gains despite Fed cut
• DXY testing 100 – macro pressure remains
• Fed delivered what was priced in, but not what bulls hoped for
Trade smart. Stay patient. Focus on what matters.
Diego
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To a successful week ahead — and stay tuned for more weekly insights into the crypto and financial markets.
Stay focused. Stay rational.
Kind regards,
Don - Founder of Velaris Trading
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