Hey Trader,
Welcome to the weekly Velaris Trading Newsletter – your source for real market insight, no fluff, no noise.
Here’s this week’s newsletter breakdown:
Brief Overview
Weekly Market Recap
Bitcoin and broader markets faced volatility this week as a stronger U.S. dollar pressured risk assets, with Bitcoin testing key support near its 50-week moving average, altcoins showing brief relief, traditional equities sliding amid rising volatility and rate concerns, and gold holding firm as investors turned cautious.
What’s Coming in Week 46
Markets enter a pivotal week with Bitcoin testing its 50-week moving average and the U.S. dollar near the key 100 level, as upcoming CPI and PPI data are set to determine whether inflation reignites a sell-off across crypto and equities or sparks a short-term relief rally.
What does week 46 bring?
Monday, November 10
No major economic reports
Earnings: ASTS, Barrick (B), CoreWeave (CRWV), Occidental Petroleum (OXY), Rigetti (RGTI), Rocket Lab (RKLB), Tyson Foods (TSN), Venture Global (VG)
Tuesday, November 11
No major economic reports
Earnings: Amdocs (DOX), Anglogold (AU), Beyond Meat (BYND), CAE, Camtek (CAMT), Nebius (NBIS), Oklo (OKLO), Sea Ltd. (SE), Sony (SNY)
Wednesday, November 12
MBA Mortgage Applications Index: Early read on housing activity. Declines could signal pressure on the housing market.
Earnings: Circle (CRCL), Cisco (CSCO), Flutter (FLUT), Globalfoundries (GFS), Manulife (MFC), ON Holdings (ONON), Pan American Silver (PAAS), TransDigm (TDG), Tencent Music (TME)
Thursday, November 13
CPI (Consumer Price Index): The key inflation print. Markets expect 3.2% YoY. A surprise here could move everything.
Initial Jobless Claims
EIA Natural Gas Inventories, Treasury Budget
Earnings: Applied Materials (AMAT), Bilibili (BILI), Brookfield (BN), Credicorp (BAP), Dillard’s (DDS), Ecopetrol (EC), JD.com, NetEase (NTES), Walt Disney (DIS)
Friday, November 14
PPI (Producer Price Index): Measures input costs — another inflation gauge.
Retail Sales: Critical for gauging consumer strength. Slight increase expected.
Business Inventories
Earnings: Alibaba (BABA), LATAM Airlines (LTM), Legence (LGN), RLX Tech (RLX), Spire (SR)
IMPORTANT: The expectations of the respective economic data may change in the course of the week. They will be updated in the Discord and will be discussed in more detail.
Weekly Market Wrap
Crypto Market Recap: Bitcoin, Ethereum, Altcoins & Market Sentiment
This week Bitcoin started around 110K and by Tuesday dropped below 100K, hitting a low of 98,734. The rest of the week was marked by back-and-forth movements between 100K and 104K, showing clear uncertainty in direction. The main driver was a strong U.S. dollar which briefly hit the 100 mark, putting pressure on all risk assets.
Bitcoin dominance initially rose, reflecting caution across the market, but by midweek the dollar rejected from 100 on the lower timeframe and BTC dominance fell from 61.4% to 58.65%, giving temporary relief to altcoins. As mentioned before, a dollar below 100 usually allows risk assets to recover, and we saw a small bounce in alts as that happened. Still, overall sentiment remains fearful.
Bitcoin is now sitting on its 50-week moving average, a level that often determines whether the bull market continues or ends. A weekly close below this line would be a bearish signal and could confirm a structural breakdown. Selling pressure is increasing, and traders are cautious ahead of the Sunday close.
Ethereum mirrored Bitcoin’s movement, staying weak and consolidating near 3.8K. Most altcoins remain under pressure, trading within bearish structures. The crypto market as a whole is in fear, reflected in low momentum and declining volumes.
Traditional Markets Recap
Traditional markets also struggled. The S&P 500 dropped around 2.7% while semiconductors fell more than 6%. The VIX climbed over 25% to around 22, showing rising volatility and fear across the board. The weakness came from several factors. Meta sold off after announcing higher capital spending for 2026, Jerome Powell dismissed the idea of a December rate cut, and a few tech names like Palantir saw post-earnings sell-offs that made investors question the lofty valuations in AI stocks.
The government shutdown, now the longest in history, is beginning to affect confidence and even travel infrastructure. Market breadth has also thinned, showing fewer stocks supporting the rally.
Despite the correction, there were still positives. The Atlanta Fed raised its GDP Nowcast for Q3 to 4%, and earnings remain strong. Around 90% of S&P 500 companies have reported, with two-thirds beating on revenue and more than 80% beating on earnings. That strength in fundamentals has so far prevented a deeper sell-off.
Gold held up above 4000, acting as a safe haven, while the dollar strengthened again and is testing the 100 level. A confirmed breakout in DXY above 100 would likely pressure both equities and crypto further in the weeks ahead.
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The Secret To Our Consistent Results
Crypto & Market Outlook
Short-Term Outlook
Markets are entering Week 46 on edge. Bitcoin is sitting directly on its 50-week moving average, a historically important trendline. A weekly close below that level would not just be a short-term bearish signal, it could confirm the structural end of this bull market phase. Selling pressure is rising, and Sunday’s close may determine whether we hold or break.
Meanwhile, the US dollar index (DXY) has once again approached the key 100 level. Last week’s rejection gave altcoins a brief window of relief, but if DXY confirms a breakout above 100 this week, especially if CPI and PPI come in hot, risk assets could sell off aggressively. Alts remain structurally weak, with low volume and bearish setups dominating. The sentiment is still fear-driven.
On the traditional side, markets are digesting weak breadth and elevated volatility. The VIX at 19, lack of tech momentum, and Powell’s rejection of December cuts have put a cap on rallies. The CPI and PPI this week will either confirm that fear, or create a short-term relief rally if inflation surprises to the downside.
Medium- to Long-Term Outlook
Despite strong Q3 earnings and a GDP Nowcast at 4%, market participants are nervous. The Fed’s tone has shifted back toward caution. A continued rise in yields, a confirmed DXY breakout, or further pressure on tech stocks could create broader de-risking. Crypto will follow, especially if Bitcoin decisively loses the 100K psychological level and the 50-week moving average.
However, any meaningful downside in CPI or weak retail sales could set the stage for a Q4 bounce, especially with investors increasingly underexposed and looking for entries. But conviction remains low. Until macro conditions ease or BTC reclaims higher ground, caution is warranted.
Key Catalysts to Watch This Week:
CPI (Thursday): A print above 3.2% likely pressures BTC and equities. Below 3.0% could spark relief.
PPI & Retail Sales (Friday): Will confirm inflation stickiness or softness in consumer demand.
DXY at 100: A breakout = bearish. Rejection = risk asset relief.
Bitcoin’s Weekly Close: Holding the 50-week MA could maintain the cycle structure. A break would trigger more downside.
Conclusion
This week is pivotal.
Bitcoin is clinging to its 50-week moving average, and the dollar is pressing against 100. CPI and PPI will likely decide which direction we go. If inflation surprises to the upside and DXY breaks out, expect more downside across crypto and equities. But if inflation cools and Bitcoin holds 100K, we could see short-term relief.
Stay cautious, the next move will be fast and decisive.
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To a successful week ahead — and stay tuned for more weekly insights into the crypto and financial markets.
Stay focused. Stay rational.
Kind regards,
Don - Founder of Velaris Trading
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