Hey Trader,
Welcome to the weekly Velaris Trading Newsletter – your source for real market insight, no fluff, no noise.
Here’s this week’s newsletter breakdown:
Brief Overview
Weekly Market Recap
Bitcoin’s rejection at 107K and drop to 94K highlights a broader macro-driven market correction despite the U.S. government reopening, with crypto, equities, and commodities all showing rising fear and weakening momentum ahead of key events like Nvidia’s earnings.
What’s Coming in Week 47
The market is at a pivotal turning point as volatility rises, Bitcoin struggles to reclaim key levels, equities await Nvidia’s crucial earnings, and both crypto and traditional assets show signs of exhaustion that will determine whether we see a short-term bounce or a deeper downturn.
What does week 47 bring?
Monday, November 17
Economic: Empire State Manufacturing Survey — Insight into NY manufacturing.
Earnings: Li Auto (LI), XPeng (XPEV), Trip.com (TCOM), XP Inc. (XP), H World (HTHT)
Tuesday, November 18
Economic: NAHB Housing Market Index — Measures builder confidence.
Earnings: Home Depot (HD), Baidu (BIDU), Medtronic (MDT), PDD Holdings (PDD)
Wednesday, November 19
Economic:
Building Permits & Housing Starts — Key for gauging real estate demand.
MBA Mortgage Applications — Weekly mortgage data trend.
Earnings: Nvidia (NVDA), Target (TGT), Lowe’s (LOW), Palo Alto Networks (PANW), TJX (TJX)
Thursday, November 20
Economic:
Initial Jobless Claims
Existing Home Sales — Recent housing activity data
Leading Indicators
Philadelphia Fed Index
Earnings: Walmart (WMT), Intuit (INTU), NetEase (NTES), Veeva Systems (VEEV), Ross Stores (ROST)
Friday, November 21
Economic: University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment (Final) — Final look at consumer mood.
Earnings: Alibaba (BABA), BJ’s Wholesale (BJ), VinFast Auto (VFS)
IMPORTANT: The expectations of the respective economic data may change in the course of the week. They will be updated in the Discord and will be discussed in more detail.
Weekly Market Wrap
Crypto Market Recap
Earlier this week Bitcoin pushed up to 107K. At that level I recommended taking profits or selling if you had not already sold around 125K like I did. Right at 107K Bitcoin was rejected and started a fresh leg lower. Even though the United States government shutdown ended on Thursday, prices kept falling and reached as low as 94K, which is my second downside target from the short I shared in September, where we entered with an average of almost 120K.
Many believed the shutdown was the reason for the crash. The fact that the reopening came together with another leg down confirms what I have been saying for two months now. The signs of a macro correction were obvious. We had a clear three day, weekly and monthly bearish divergence, we broke below a three year trend line that was respected for a long time, and on top of that the dollar index seems to have bottomed.
Bitcoin now needs to close back above 100K and ideally above the fifty week moving average. If that does not happen, the higher time frame structure is broken and lower lows are likely. The warning signs were already very clean from September and even August. Now at 94K Bitcoin sits on strong support and we could see a relief bounce at least on the lower time frames, but into next year I still expect lower levels in the seventies and, if we follow historic corrections, even moves toward 50K or as low as 30K.
Unlike Bitcoin, Ethereum did not make a new lower low, even though it came close. During this crash we actually saw a bit of relative strength in altcoins compared to Bitcoin, which tells me retail is highly exhausted on the Bitcoin side. ETH almost tagged 3000 during the correction. For Ethereum to recover and continue its trend, we want to see a clear reclaim of 3400. At the same time, exchange traded funds have seen heavy outflows and the fear and greed index has dropped to 10, which is extreme fear.
Traditional Markets Recap
In traditional markets the S&P500 closed the week lower than it started, around 6734. The equity selloff began on the very day the government reopened. Gold is trading above the 4000 area and also sold off sharply on that same day but managed to hold above that key zone. The volatility index briefly spiked to 23, showing that volatility and fear are rising again across markets.
Many investors are now focused on the upcoming Nvidia earnings on Wednesday. This report will be important for the broader market and could provide either the next leg up or the next leg down in the ongoing artificial intelligence rally. Across several leaders such as Tesla and Palantir we are seeing signs of exhaustion, with the relative strength index rolling over and making lower highs. That slowdown in momentum fits the broader picture of a market that is tired and at risk of a deeper corrective phase.
Market Outlook
Volatility is back. After the US shutdown ended, the market sold off further, not because of politics, but because of exhaustion. Bitcoin must reclaim 120K on the weekly for new all time highs or at least 100K for a relief in the market, if not, we risk deeper downside. Ethereum is showing slight strength, but without BTC leadership, that won’t hold. We’re entering a crucial zone for macro and crypto timing.
In equities, all eyes are on Nvidia’s earnings Wednesday. It will serve as a temperature check for AI, tech, and the broader equity rally. With leaders like Tesla and Palantir rolling over, and RSI losing momentum, any miss or weak forward guidance could trigger another leg down.
Meanwhile, the housing data and consumer sentiment will help clarify if the Fed's “soft landing” narrative still holds or cracks under pressure.
Key Catalysts to Watch:
Nvidia earnings (Wednesday) — A beat could rescue tech. A miss might unravel it.
Housing & Consumer data — Will the soft landing narrative hold up?
Bitcoin reclaiming 100K or not — Decides if we bounce or bleed.
Volatility Index (VIX) — Watch for continued spikes above 20.
Fear & Greed Index — Crypto markets in extreme fear
Conclusion
We’re at a critical juncture.
Crypto markets are sitting on macro support but risk a deeper breakdown if bulls don’t step in with strength. Traditional markets are flashing signs of fatigue.
Expect short-term bounces, but stay cautious, the structure is still fragile on the macro.
We have been expecting this downturn since September and have shorted with precision the top of Bitcoin.
Now is the time for precision, not hope.
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To a successful week ahead — and stay tuned for more weekly insights into the crypto and financial markets.
Stay focused. Stay rational.
Kind regards,
Diego - Founder of Velaris Trading
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