Welcome to the weekly UpCrypto Trading Newsletter.
What does week 48 bring?
Monday, November 25:
Earnings 📝 - Bath & Body Works, Agilent Technologies, Zoom Video Communications, and Woodward Inc. are set to release their quarterly results.
Tuesday, November 26:
US Consumer Confidence 🌡️ - The Consumer Confidence Index is expected at 110, up slightly from the previous reading of 98.7. A higher reading would suggest increased optimism among consumers, a good indicator for holiday shopping and spending strength as we move into the end of the year.
US Housing Market Data 🏠 - Several key pieces of housing data will be released. The FHFA House Price Index and S&P Case-Shiller Home Price Index (YoY expected at 4.5%, down from 5.2%) will give insights into the current trends in U.S. home prices. Housing affordability remains a concern due to persistently high mortgage rates. New Home Sales are projected at 428.3K, indicating steady consumer demand despite rising costs.
Earnings 📝 - Reports from Analog Devices, Best Buy, Burlington Stores, Dick’s Sporting Goods, Abercrombie & Fitch, Dell Technologies, CrowdStrike, and Workday.
Wednesday, November 27:
US Durable Goods Orders 🏭 - Expected to grow by 0.3%, these orders provide insights into the business investment environment, a crucial indicator for economic health. A stronger reading would indicate increased capital spending and business confidence.
US GDP, Second Estimate 📉 - The second estimate for Q3 GDP is projected at 2.8%, a slight downgrade from 3.0%. This will provide a more detailed snapshot of economic growth dynamics, including consumer spending, investment, and net exports.
US PCE Prices & Personal Income 💵 - PCE inflation, a key gauge of price pressures, is expected to show a 0.3% increase, a signal of continued inflationary pressures, but still within a manageable range. Meanwhile, Personal Income and Personal Spending are both anticipated to rise by 0.3% and 0.4%, respectively, suggesting continued resilience in consumer demand.
US Initial Jobless Claims 📉 - Expected at 215K, this is one of the key indicators of labor market health. Continued declines in claims could signal tight labor markets, while any upward surprise may indicate economic softening.
US Pending Home Sales 🏠 - Expected to grow by 3.9% YoY, indicating some stabilization in the housing market despite ongoing affordability challenges.
Thursday, November 28:
Thanksgiving 🦃 - Markets will be closed for Thanksgiving. Historically, this shortens the trading week, which can lead to lower liquidity and higher volatility. Investors will take a pause, with many focusing on upcoming holiday retail data.
Friday, November 29:
Black Friday Consumer Sentiment 🛍️ - The final Consumer Sentiment Index for November is expected at 73. This data will provide an initial look into consumer confidence post-Black Friday, offering insights into spending behavior heading into the holiday season.
Crypto Market and Economic Outlook for Thanksgiving Week
Thanksgiving week is here, and it's shaping up to be an interesting one for both crypto and traditional markets.
Historically, this week sees low trading volumes, which can lead to sharper price swings. In the crypto space, Bitcoin has been holding strong near key levels, with speculation about a potential move towards $100,000 gaining traction. Optimism surrounding regulatory clarity in the U.S. under the Trump administration has been a major driver of sentiment. This momentum has spilled over into crypto-related stocks, signaling renewed interest from institutional players.
In traditional markets, the S&P 500 has been climbing higher, supported by a mix of solid earnings and expectations for a stable Federal Reserve policy. Nvidia's earnings last week were a highlight, though its stock reacted softly. Key earnings reports from companies like CrowdStrike, Dell, Zoom and Workday will be watched closely for any surprises that might stir up market sentiment.
Key Economic Data and the Fed’s Role
This week brings important economic data, including GDP revisions, Consumer Confidence numbers, and the PCE inflation index, which is closely followed by the Fed. Expectations for a rate cut in December have softened slightly, with markets now pricing in a 53% chance. If the PCE data reveals inflation is cooling, we could see a boost in risk assets, including crypto. On the flip side, a sticky inflation report might put upward pressure on bond yields, suppressing investor optimism across the board.
Crypto Market Drivers to Watch
The crypto market is buzzing with optimism, thanks to growing institutional interest and regulatory developments. On-chain data shows whales are continuing to accumulate Bitcoin, a sign of confidence in the asset’s long-term potential.
Everyone is waiting for the $100k mark to hit.
Thanksgiving Week Seasonal Trends
Thanksgiving week is typically bullish for both traditional and crypto markets. Lighter trading volumes and a historical bias towards positive seasonality often create a favorable psychological environment for risk assets. For crypto, this could translate to steady gains for Bitcoin and Altcoins. However, surprises in economic data, like a hotter-than-expected inflation reading or a sudden rise in bond yields, could disrupt the seasonal trend.
Black Friday sales figures will also be closely monitored as a real-time indicator of consumer sentiment. Strong retail numbers could give markets a boost, while disappointing data might weigh on equities and, by extension, riskier assets like crypto.
Final Thoughts
Thanksgiving week brings a mix of optimism and risk for both crypto and traditional markets, with low trading volumes potentially leading to volatility. Key economic data and seasonal trends will shape investor sentiment, while Bitcoin's push toward $100k and Black Friday sales data will be closely watched.
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Here's to a successful week, and stay tuned for more weekly outlooks on the crypto and financial markets.
Best regards,
your UpCrypto Team!
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