Week 49

Welcome to the weekly UpCrypto Trading Newsletter.

What does week 49 bring?

Monday, December 2:

• S&P Final U.S. Manufacturing PMI 📊
  The final U.S. Manufacturing PMI for November is expected to be 47.2, showing a slight improvement from last month. However, the manufacturing sector remains in contraction territory, indicating ongoing challenges in the industry.

• Fed Members' Speeches 🎙️
  Fed Governor Christopher Waller and New York Fed President John Williams will speak today. Their statements could provide guidance on future monetary policy, particularly after recent inflation data.

Tuesday, December 3:

• Job Openings (JOLTS) 📈
  Job openings are estimated to be 7.38 million, slightly down from the previous month. This could indicate a minor cooling of the labor market but still remains historically high.

• Fed Members' Speeches 🎙️
  Fed Governor Adriana Kugler and Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee will be speaking today. Their economic outlooks could have an impact on market sentiment.

• Earnings Report 📊
  Salesforce will release its quarterly results. Investors will be watching for clues on demand for cloud solutions and general business outlook.

Wednesday, December 4:

• ADP Employment Report ‍💼
  Private sector employment is expected to have increased by 180,000 jobs, indicating solid, albeit slightly reduced, hiring activity.

• S&P Final U.S. Services PMI 📊
  The final services PMI is projected to be 57, suggesting robust growth in the services sector.

• ISM Services Index 📏
  Expected to rise to 56.7, pointing to ongoing expansion in the services sector.

• Fed Chair Powell's Speech 🎙️
  Fed Chair Jerome Powell will provide insights into economic conditions and monetary policy. Investors will be keen to hear any clues on future rate adjustments.

• Fed Beige Book 📔
  The Beige Book will offer a snapshot of current economic activity and may highlight regional differences across the U.S.

It has been a good week:

Thursday, December 5:

• Initial Jobless Claims 📉
  Initial claims are expected to come in at 214,000, indicating continued stability in the labor market.

• Earnings Reports 📊
  GitLab and Lululemon Athletica will release their earnings. Lululemon’s retail performance will be closely watched as an indicator of consumer spending.

Friday, December 6:

• Non-Farm Payrolls (Employment Report) 💼
  A rise of 194,000 jobs is expected, signaling solid job growth.

• Unemployment Rate 📉
  The unemployment rate is projected to hold steady at 4.1%. An unexpected rise could lead to market reactions, particularly in the crypto market.

• Consumer Sentiment (Preliminary) 🌡️
  Expected to increase to 72.5, indicating an improved consumer outlook, which could have positive implications for spending.

• Fed Members' Speeches 🎙️
  Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee and Fed Governor Beth Hammack will speak. Their comments may offer further insights into the Fed’s monetary policy.

• Consumer Credit 💳
  Consumer credit is expected to rise by $9 billion, pointing to increased borrowing by consumers.

Crypto and Market Outlook for the Week of December 2, 2024

The first week of December brings significant economic indicators and earnings reports that could impact both traditional and crypto markets.

Economic Data and Fed Speeches

On Monday, the final S&P U.S. Manufacturing PMI is expected to show a slight improvement from 46.5 to 47.2. Speeches from Fed members, including Waller and Williams, could provide more guidance on the direction of monetary policy.

On Tuesday, job openings (JOLTS) are expected to dip slightly from 7.443 million to 7.38 million, with speeches from Fed members Kugler and Goolsbee also on the agenda.

Wednesday will see the release of the ADP employment report (expected at 180,000 new jobs) and the final U.S. services PMI (expected to rise from 55 to 57). Fed Chair Powell will also speak, with the Fed's Beige Book providing further insights into regional economic conditions.

Thursday's initial jobless claims are expected to rise slightly, from 213,000 to 214,000.

Friday will be crucial, with the release of the Non-Farm Payrolls report (expected: 194,000 new jobs) and the unemployment rate (steady at 4.1%). As mentioned earlier, an unexpected rise in unemployment could lead to corrections in Bitcoin. Preliminary consumer sentiment is expected to rise from 71.8 to 72.5.

Earnings Reports

Salesforce will release its quarterly results on Tuesday. Given the current market environment and the importance of AI initiatives, this report will be closely watched.

Thursday will feature reports from GitLab and Lululemon, providing insights into the tech and retail sectors.

Crypto Market

Bitcoin remains near key support levels. On-chain data shows that "whales" continue to accumulate, signaling confidence in the long-term potential of the cryptocurrency. However, macroeconomic data, especially unemployment numbers, could drive short-term volatility.

Summary

The week of December 2 brings a mix of important economic data, Fed speeches, and earnings reports. Investors should particularly watch the labor market data on Friday, as these numbers could influence both traditional and crypto markets.

We'll keep you updated on all relevant developments and provide you with timely analysis and updates.

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Here's to a successful week, and stay tuned for more weekly outlooks on the crypto and financial markets.

Best regards,
your UpCrypto Team!

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