Welcome to the weekly UpCrypto Trading Newsletter.
What does week 50 bring?
Monday, December 9:
Wholesale Inventories 📦
A 0.2% increase in wholesale inventories is expected, which may reflect ongoing caution among businesses as they adjust stock levels in response to demand uncertainties. This data offers a glimpse into the health of supply chains and broader economic activity.Earnings Reports 📝
Oracle (ORCL), MongoDB (MDB), Toll Brothers (TOL), Casey's General Stores (CASY), and Vail Resorts (MTN) report earnings. Key focus areas include Oracle's cloud revenue, Toll Brothers' insights into housing resilience, and Casey's performance amidst shifting consumer behavior.
Tuesday, December 10:
Productivity & Labor Costs 📊
Productivity is forecasted to grow by 2.2%, while unit labor costs are expected to rise by 1.9%. These metrics provide insights into economic efficiency and inflationary pressures, respectively.Earnings Reports 📝
AutoZone (AZN), Ferguson Enterprises (FERG), Academy Sports (ASO), and GameStop (GME) are set to release their earnings. AutoZone's results will reflect consumer trends in car maintenance, while GameStop’s performance will highlight the impact of its turnaround efforts in a changing retail landscape.
Wednesday, December 11:
Consumer Price Index (CPI) 📈
The CPI is expected to stay at 3.3% YoY, with a 0.3% MoM gain. This key inflation reading will be pivotal in shaping the Federal Reserve's policy outlook, as it assesses whether inflationary pressures are easing or persisting.Crude Oil Inventories 🛢️
Weekly EIA data will provide updates on crude oil supply levels, which could influence energy prices and inflation expectations.MBA Mortgage Applications Index 🏠
This index will offer insights into housing market activity and consumer sentiment, particularly as high mortgage rates continue to impact affordability.Earnings Reports 📝
Adobe (ADBE), Nordson (NDSN), and REV Group (REVG) will release their earnings. Adobe's results will focus on cloud and AI-driven initiatives, while Nordson will highlight trends in industrial demand.
Thursday, December 12:
Producer Price Index (PPI) 🏭
The PPI is expected to rise by 0.3%, offering insights into price changes at the wholesale level. This data is a key indicator of inflation trends further down the supply chain.Initial Jobless Claims 📉
Initial claims are expected at 221,000, reflecting a stable labor market. A surprise increase could signal emerging economic pressures.Earnings Reports 📝
Ciena (CIEN), Broadcom (AVGO), and Costco (COST) will announce earnings. Broadcom’s AI-related chip revenue and Costco’s holiday sales performance will be closely watched.
Friday, December 13:
U.S. Export & Import Prices 🌐
Export and import prices excluding oil will provide a detailed view of trade dynamics and inflation pressures from global markets. This data can also reflect competitiveness and cost trends in the U.S. economy.
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Crypto and Market Outlook for Week 50
The second week of December promises critical insights for both traditional and crypto markets, driven by inflation data, earnings reports, and labor market metrics.
Economic Data & the Fed’s Role
The CPI report on Wednesday will dominate headlines, offering a clearer picture of inflation’s trajectory. Paired with the PPI on Thursday, these figures will shape expectations ahead of the Federal Reserve’s December 17-18 FOMC meeting. Markets currently price in an 86% probability of a quarter-point rate cut, but any surprises in inflation data could alter that outlook. Labor market data, including initial jobless claims and productivity figures, will also play a role in guiding investor sentiment.
Crypto Market Trends
Bitcoin remains steady near critical levels, supported by increasing institutional interest and accumulating "whale" activity. On-chain metrics continue to highlight strong holding patterns, signaling confidence in Bitcoin’s long-term trajectory. However, macroeconomic events, particularly inflation and labor market reports, and the more and more overheated market through funding could introduce short-term volatility.
Earnings Highlights
Oracle, Broadcom, and Costco stand out in a week of diverse earnings reports. Oracle’s cloud performance will reflect enterprise IT trends, while Broadcom’s AI-driven chip sales remain a focal point for technology investors. Costco’s holiday numbers will offer an early read on consumer spending as we head deeper into the holiday season.
Seasonal Trends
As year-end approaches, lighter trading volumes and positive seasonality typically favor risk assets, including crypto. However, surprises in inflation data or labor market weakness could disrupt this trend, creating volatility across asset classes.
Conclusion
Week 50 is poised to deliver key insights into inflation, labor markets, and corporate performance. Investors should watch Wednesday’s CPI report closely for indications of the Federal Reserve’s next moves. On the crypto front, a calm macro backdrop could further support Bitcoin’s consolidation near critical resistance levels.
Here's to a successful week, and stay tuned for more weekly outlooks on the crypto and financial markets.
Best regards,
your UpCrypto Team!
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