Week 51

Welcome to the weekly UpCrypto Trading Newsletter.

What does week 51 bring?

Monday, December 16:

• NY Fed Empire State Manufacturing Index 📊
  The Empire State Index is expected at 6.4, indicating moderate expansion in the manufacturing sector. This early indicator provides insights into the current sentiment within the production industry.

• Earnings Reports 📝
  Compass Minerals International (CMP) and Mitek Systems (MITK) will release their results. CMP’s report is particularly noteworthy for insights into commodity trends.

Tuesday, December 17:

• Retail Sales (November) 🛒
  Retail sales are forecasted to rise 0.5% MoM. This key indicator reflects consumer spending trends, especially during the holiday shopping season.

• Earnings Reports 📝
  HEICO Corp. (HEI) and Worthington Enterprises (WOR) are set to announce their quarterly earnings. HEICO’s performance will shed light on the aerospace sector’s trajectory.

Wednesday, December 18:

• Building Permits & Housing Starts 🏠
  Building permits are expected at 1.437 million, with housing starts forecasted at 1.34 million. These figures highlight activity in the housing market, which continues to feel the effects of elevated financing costs.

• FOMC Rate Decision 🏦
  A 25 basis-point rate cut to 4.5% is anticipated, with 96% of market participants pricing it in. Investors will closely monitor the Federal Reserve’s commentary for signals on future monetary policy.

• Earnings Reports 📝
  Reports from General Mills (GIS), Jabil Inc. (JBL), Birkenstock (BIRK), Micron Technology (MU), Lennar Corp. (LEN), and Worthington Steel (WS) are expected. Micron’s report will be a focal point for evaluating the memory chip industry's state.

Thursday, December 19:

• Existing Home Sales 🏠
  Existing home sales are projected at 3.97 million, reflecting demand dynamics in a constrained housing market.

• GDP – Third Estimate 📉
  The third estimate for Q3 GDP is expected at 2.8%, down from the prior 3%. This offers a more refined view of economic growth.

• Initial Jobless Claims 📉
  Initial claims are forecasted at 240,000, showing a modest increase that could hint at emerging labor market pressures.

• Earnings Reports 📝
  Major players such as Accenture (ACN), Cintas (CTAS), Paychex (PAYX), Darden Restaurants (DRI), Carmax (KMX), Conagra Brands (CAG), Nike (NKE), and FedEx (FDX) will announce earnings. FedEx’s report will provide valuable insights into global supply chain trends.

Friday, December 20:

• PCE Prices & Personal Income/Spending 💵
  The Core PCE Index, the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, is expected to rise by 0.2%, slightly lower than the prior 0.3%. Personal income and spending are projected to increase by 0.4% and 0.5% MoM, respectively.

• University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment 🌡️
  Consumer sentiment is anticipated to rise to 74, reflecting a modest improvement from the previous month.

Crypto and Market Outlook for Week 51

The last full trading week before Christmas is packed with economic and corporate events that could influence both traditional and crypto markets.

Economic Data & the Fed

The FOMC decision on Wednesday is the week's main event. A 25 basis-point cut is widely expected, but the Fed's commentary will set the tone for market expectations in 2025. Retail sales, building permits, and existing home sales data will also provide insights into how the economy is adjusting to a high-interest-rate environment.

Crypto Market Trends

Bitcoin is trading steadily above $100K following a recent correction. Institutional interest and on-chain data indicate continued "whale" accumulation. Macroeconomic factors, such as the FOMC decision and consumer sentiment data, could drive short-term volatility.

Earnings Highlights

Reports from FedEx, Nike, and Micron are in focus. FedEx will shed light on global trade trends, while Nike and Micron will offer critical insights into retail and technology sector dynamics.

Seasonal Trends

As the holidays approach and trading volumes decline, markets typically experience increased volatility. Positive seasonal trends could stabilize the markets this week. However, it’s worth noting that many market makers will soon head into holiday breaks. During such periods, markets often see reduced activity and limited significant movements. Traders should prepare for potential sideways trends and adjust strategies accordingly.

Conclusion

Week 51 brings crucial data and reports, offering both macroeconomic and sectoral insights. The FOMC decision and PCE data on Friday are central to shaping market directions in the final weeks of the year. In the crypto space, Bitcoin is expected to maintain stability, with short-term moves driven by macroeconomic events.

Here's to a successful week, and stay tuned for more weekly outlooks on the crypto and financial markets.

Best regards,
your UpCrypto Team!

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