Welcome to the weekly UpCrypto Trading Newsletter.
Weekly Overview
What’s coming in Week 6?
Key economic events include the ISM Manufacturing Index and U.S. jobs report. Additionally, major tech earnings are on the calendar, including Alphabet, Amazon, Palantir, and Spotify.
Market Recap:
Markets reacted with high volatility to the FOMC meeting and inflation data. While the SPX remained near its highs, crypto and tech stocks showed mixed movements.
Earnings Highlights:
This week, companies such as Alphabet, AMD, Palantir, Uber, Amazon, and Spotify will report their earnings, providing critical insights into the tech and digital sectors.
What does week 6 bring?
Monday, February 3rd:
ISM Manufacturing Index
Expected at 49.5. This index measures industrial activity, indicating expansion (above 50) or contraction (below 50).
Earnings Reports đź“ť
Palantir Technologies (PLTR), NXP Semiconductors (NXPI).
Tuesday, February 4th:
JOLTS Job Openings
Key labor market indicator showing the number of job vacancies.
Factory Orders
Forecasted to decline by -1%, indicating weakening industrial demand.
Earnings Reports đź“ť
Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL), Spotify Technology SA (SPOT), Advanced Micro Devices Inc. (AMD), Chipotle Mexican Grill (CMG).
Wednesday, February 5th:
ADP Employment Change
Expected: +150,000 jobs, providing an early read on private sector employment before the official Nonfarm Payrolls report.
ISM Services
Expected: 54.3. This index measures the activity in the service sector, a major part of the U.S. economy.
Earnings Reports đź“ť
Walt Disney Co. (DIS), Uber Technologies (UBER), Arm Holdings PLC (ARM), MicroStrategy Inc. (MSTR).
Thursday, February 6th:
Initial Jobless Claims
Forecast: 214,000 new claims. A higher number could signal a weakening job market.Earnings Reports đź“ť
Amazon.com Inc. (AMZN), Pinterest (PINS), Fortinet Inc. (FTNT), Expedia Group Inc. (EXPE).
Friday, February 7th:
Nonfarm Payrolls
Expected: +170,000 new jobs—one of the most critical labor market indicators.
Unemployment Rate
Expected to remain at 4.1%, a key factor for Fed policy decisions.
University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment – Preliminary
Expected: 71.8, providing insight into consumer confidence.
Earnings Reports đź“ť
Fortive Corp. (FTV), Cboe Global Markets Inc. (CBOE).
Weekly Market Recap
Markets experienced volatility following the FOMC meeting, Powell’s speech, and mixed inflation data. The Fed kept interest rates unchanged as expected but emphasized that future rate cuts depend on further progress on inflation.
Powell reiterated that the U.S. economy remains strong, with GDP growth above 2% in 2024 and a stable labor market that no longer contributes to inflationary pressures. Inflation is still moving toward the 2% target, but more progress is needed.
A key takeaway from Powell’s speech: The Fed does not need to wait until inflation reaches exactly 2% to start cutting rates. This leaves room for earlier rate cuts if the market shows signs of weakness. At the same time, the Fed will continue reducing its balance sheet (Quantitative Tightening, QT)—so an immediate shift to expansionary policy is unlikely.
Despite Powell’s cautious stance, markets reacted positively as there were no unexpected hawkish surprises. The S&P 500 stabilized after initial volatility, while tech stocks remained mixed due to AI-driven uncertainty. Nvidia and Microsoft saw sharp swings after reports of a new open-source AI competitor emerging from China.
Crypto Update
Bitcoin traded between 97K and 109K USD, experiencing short-term fluctuations driven by tech sector sell-offs and Powell’s relatively dovish remarks, which helped push prices higher.
Key Takeaways:
Powell’s dovish tone was positive for markets.
Inflation data remains stable but has not declined significantly—keeping rate cut speculation alive.
AI and tech stocks continue to be highly volatile due to geopolitical and innovation-related developments.
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Crypto & Market Outlook for Week 6
Rate Cut Expectations Still in Play, but Fed Remains Cautious
Powell confirmed that the Fed is waiting for more data before cutting rates, meaning risk assets could stay under pressure in the short term.
Labor Market Data Will Be Key This Week
The upcoming labor market data could significantly impact rate cut expectations. Stronger-than-expected data might reduce the chances of early rate cuts, while weaker numbers could boost markets.
Bitcoin in Consolidation Between 101K and 109K – Breakout Incoming
BTC is currently in a consolidation phase. Any positive crypto-related news from Trump or weak labor market datacould trigger another wave of ETF inflows, pushing Bitcoin toward a new all-time high above 110K.
Key Market Factors That Could Influence BTC:
Trump’s administration could introduce more pro-crypto policies.
Weaker U.S. economic data could pressure the Fed to ease policy sooner.
A strong dollar or rising bond yields could slow down BTC’s momentum.
Final Thoughts
What to Watch Next Week:
Increased volatility is likely, with tech earnings and labor market data in focus.
Key Takeaways:
Friday’s job report will be the most important macroeconomic event for the Fed.
AI-driven volatility could continue to impact tech stocks.
Bitcoin remains in a key decision zone between 101K and 109K.
Strategy Moving Forward
Markets could benefit from weaker macroeconomic data in the short term, but uncertainty remains regarding tariffs and further monetary policy shifts. A disciplined risk management approach remains crucial.
Here's to a successful week, and stay tuned for more weekly outlooks on the crypto and financial markets.
Best regards,
your UpCrypto Team!
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