Welcome to the weekly UpCrypto Trading Newsletter.
Weekly Overview
What Does Week 7 Bring?
Key economic data in focus: Markets await the CPI and PPI reports, which could be decisive for Fed policy. Additionally, earnings from major tech companies will provide insights into business trends.
Weekly Market Wrap:
Markets reacted to increased volatility driven by new tariff announcements and rising inflation concerns. Bitcoin and tech stocks experienced significant price swings.
Earnings Highlights:
This week, companies like Shopify, Coinbase, Airbnb, Trade Desk, and Palantir will report their earnings. Investors are closely watching developments in tech and AI-driven business models.
What does week 7 bring?
Monday, February 10:
No major economic reports
Earnings Reports
Results from McDonald's Corp. (MCD), ON Semiconductor Corp. (ON), Monday.com Ltd. (MNDY), Vertex Pharmaceuticals (VRTX), Astera Labs (ALAB)
Tuesday, February 11:
No major economic reports
Earnings Reports
Results from Coca-Cola Co. (KO), S&P Global Inc. (SPGI), Shopify Inc. (SHOP), Marriott International Inc. (MAR), DoorDash Inc. (DASH)
Wednesday, February 12:
Consumer Price Index (CPI)
A CPI of 2.9% is expected. This is the most important inflation indicator of the week and could significantly impact rate cut expectations. If the data comes in higher than expected, markets may react negatively. If lower than expected, markets should recover as expectations for earlier rate cuts increase.Earnings Reports
Results from CME Group Inc. (CME), CVS Health Corp. (CVS), Trade Desk Inc. (TTD), Robinhood Markets Inc. (HOOD), HubSpot Inc. (HUBS), Reddit Inc. (RDDT)
Thursday, February 13:
Producer Price Index (PPI)
A 0.2% month-over-month increase is expected, with core PPI projected at 0.3%. This measures producer price trends and potential future inflationary pressures.Initial Jobless Claims
215K new claims are expected, a key indicator for labor market conditions.Earnings Reports
Results from Deere & Co. (DE), Moody's Corp. (MCO), Applied Materials Inc. (AMAT), Airbnb Inc. (ABNB), Palo Alto Networks (PANW), Coinbase Global Inc. (COIN)
Friday, February 14:
Retail Sales
No additional growth expected. This figure signals consumer spending trends, a key driver of GDP growth.Earnings Reports
Results from Enbridge Inc. (ENB), TC Energy Corp. (TRP), Moderna Inc. (MRNA)
Weekly Market Wrap
The past week was marked by uncertainty and increased volatility, largely driven by new tariffs announced by the Trump administration. Inflation indicators have also shown early signs of potential acceleration, creating additional pressure on the Fed.
The latest Non-Farm Payroll (NFP) numbers came in below expectations, which is positive as higher figures were already priced in. However, the unemployment rate was lower than expected, indicating a stronger labor market than anticipated.
Conflicting Data:
Weaker NFP numbers suggest more rate cuts could be on the table.
A lower unemployment rate suggests the Fed may have less urgency to cut rates.
These mixed signals make market projections difficult. While weaker NFP supports a looser monetary policy, the strong unemployment data could make the Fed more cautious about cutting rates. There is no clear bullish signal, but also no strong bearish case either.
Crypto Recap
The past week was characterized by extreme volatility and panic selling. On Sunday evening, Bitcoin saw a sharp drop to 91K within hours. Liquidations totaled over 2 billion USD within 24 hours, the highest recorded in months.
Bitcoin dominance (BTC.D) briefly spiked to 64%, as altcoins faced intense sell pressure. While BTC.D has since retreated slightly, it remains above 60%, indicating that capital is moving out of altcoins into Bitcoin for stability.
Bitcoin briefly recovered to 100K on Friday before pulling back to 96K. The market remains uncertain, with fear and capitulation still evident.
Key Takeaways:
Over 2 billion USD liquidated in 24 hours, a record-breaking event.
Bitcoin dominance at 64%, with altcoins under strong selling pressure.
High volatility with BTC briefly above 100K before retracing to 96K.
Uncertainty remains high, with many traders unsure if the bottom is in.
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Crypto & Market Outlook for Week 7
This week, two major economic reports will shape market sentiment:
CPI Inflation Data in Focus (Wednesday, February 12)
The CPI report is the most critical macroeconomic event this week. Markets expect annual inflation at 2.9%.
CPI Scenarios:
Below expectations (<2.9%) → Bullish, as it strengthens the case for rate cuts as early as May.
In line with expectations (2.9%) → Neutral to slightly bullish, as market expectations remain unchanged.
Above expectations (>2.9%) → Bearish, as higher inflation could delay rate cuts.
If CPI comes in lower than expected, the probability of a rate cut in May increases, which would support both the stock and crypto markets.
PPI as Confirmation (Thursday, February 13)
The PPI (Producer Price Index) follows on Thursday, providing a leading indicator for future consumer inflation. A 0.2% increase is expected, with core PPI at 0.3%.
Since producer prices often lead consumer prices, a lower-than-expected PPI could reinforce the market’s expectation of falling inflation.
Market Strategy for Week 7:
CPI remains the key event. A lower reading could accelerate rate cut expectations.
High volatility is expected as traders remain cautious after last week’s sell-off.
Altcoins remain under pressure, with Bitcoin dominance still elevated.
Macro factors, including Fed commentary, will continue to shape sentiment.
If inflation data is favorable, the crypto market could stabilize after last week's turbulence, with Bitcoin potentially retesting the 100K level. However, a higher-than-expected CPI could trigger further selling pressure.
Conclusion
Markets are fully focused on inflation data this week. A softer CPI print could reinforce expectations for earlier rate cuts, supporting risk assets, while a stronger print could cause renewed uncertainty.
Final Takeaways:
Pro-growth policies continue to support equities, but inflation risks remain.
Crypto could be positioned for a stronger recovery if macro conditions improve.
A DCA approach remains prudent given elevated market volatility.
Traders should remain disciplined and closely monitor economic data releases. Further updates will follow throughout the week in our Discord.
Here's to a successful week, and stay tuned for more weekly outlooks on the crypto and financial markets.
Best regards,
your UpCrypto Team!
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