Welcome to the weekly UpCrypto Trading Newsletter.
Weekly Overview
What does Week 8 bring?
Markets remain influenced by recent inflation data and macroeconomic uncertainties. The FOMC Minutes on Wednesday will be crucial as they may provide insights into how the Fed is interpreting the latest data. Rate cut expectations have been pushed further back, keeping pressure on risk assets.
Weekly Market Wrap:
Despite rising inflation and postponed rate cut expectations, markets have shown resilience. The S&P 500 reached a new all-time high, while Bitcoin is attempting to stabilize after a highly volatile week. The Fed remains restrictive, and uncertainty over future monetary policy persists.
Earnings Highlights:
Key earnings reports this week include Baidu, Arista Networks, Analog Devices, Alibaba, and Walmart. Developments in the tech sector could drive markets further or trigger consolidation.
What does week 8 bring?
Monday, February 17:
No significant economic reports
Earnings Reports
Results from UFP Industries Inc. (UFPI), Noble Corporation PLC (NE), Transocean Ltd. (RIG)
Tuesday, February 18:
Empire State Manufacturing Index
Expected at -1, an important indicator of industrial activity in New York State.NAHB Housing Market Index
Provides insights into homebuilder confidence in the U.S. housing market.Earnings Reports
Results from Medtronic PLC (MDT), Baidu Inc. (BIDU), Arista Networks Inc. (ANET), Cadence Design Systems Inc. (CDNS)
Wednesday, February 19:
Building Permits
Expected at 1.45M, an indicator of future construction activity.Housing Starts
Expected at 1.39M, reflecting current construction activity.FOMC Minutes
The minutes from the last Fed meeting could provide key insights into future monetary policy.Earnings Reports
Results from Analog Devices Inc. (ADI), Garmin Ltd. (GRMN), Carvana Co. (CVNA), Toast Inc. (TOST)
Thursday, February 20:
Initial Jobless Claims
Expected at 216K, providing insights into labor market trends.Philadelphia Fed Index
Expected at 25.5, measuring business activity in the Philadelphia region.Earnings Reports
Results from Walmart Inc. (WMT), Alibaba Group Holding Ltd. (BABA), Booking Holdings Inc. (BKNG), Live Nation Entertainment Inc. (LYV)
Friday, February 21:
Existing Home Sales
Expected at 4.17M, an indicator of housing market stability.University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment - Final
Expected at 67.8, an important measure of consumer confidence.Earnings Reports
Results from Balchem Corp. (BCPC), TXNM Energy Inc. (TXNM)
Weekly Market Wrap
Markets experienced a volatile week driven by inflation fears and geopolitical tensions. Despite hotter-than-expected CPI and PPI data, both the stock and crypto markets have remained stable.
Key Developments:
Inflation remains high – Recent CPI and PPI reports showed persistent price pressures in the U.S. economy. The "higher for longer" narrative continues to dominate, with the market now pricing in the first rate cut no earlier than September.
Tariffs as a new uncertainty – Trump's announcement of new import tariffs is fueling inflation concerns, while China threatens retaliatory measures.
Tech dominates – Mega-cap tech stocks continue to drive markets, particularly following strong earnings from Nvidia and Meta.
Bitcoin remains volatile – BTC briefly dropped to 91K last week before recovering to 100K. Fear persists in the market, and altcoins remain under pressure.
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Crypto and Market Outlook for Week 8
The upcoming week is all about monetary policy decisions. The FOMC Minutes on Wednesday will be the key event, as they could reveal how the Fed is assessing recent inflation data. If a more restrictive stance emerges, it could put downward pressure on markets and define a clear trend.
Macro Factors in Focus:
Rate cut expectations keep shifting – A few months ago, the market priced in 4-5 rate cuts for 2025, but now the consensus points to the first cut occurring no earlier than September or even later.
Bitcoin remains under pressure – High BTC dominance suggests altcoins continue to struggle. However, if regulatory clarity from the U.S. emerges, it could provide a much-needed boost.
Geopolitics remains a risk – U.S.-China trade negotiations could either bring stability or introduce new uncertainties.
Potential Market Movers This Week:
FOMC Minutes – Any hawkish comments could weigh on risk assets.
Interest rate developments – If inflation concerns persist, the "higher for longer" narrative could strengthen.
Conclusion
This week could see continued high volatility, particularly in response to monetary policy signals from the FOMC. If Fed officials adopt a more restrictive stance, it could trigger short-term selling pressure, especially in tech stocks and the crypto sector.
Bitcoin remains in a critical phase, with uncertainty among investors about its next move. If the macroeconomic environment worsens, a retest of the 90K level could be in play.
Key Takeaways:
FOMC Minutes in focus – A major factor in determining market direction.
Inflation remains a concern – If price data does not ease, further corrections could be likely.
Tech stocks support the market – Strong earnings in the sector have prevented a broader pullback.
Bitcoin remains volatile – Regulatory developments and macro factors remain key drivers.
A decisive factor will be whether markets accept the Fed's restrictive stance or if speculation about earlier rate cuts resurfaces. This week will be pivotal.
Here's to a successful week, and stay tuned for more weekly outlooks on the crypto and financial markets.
Best regards,
your UpCrypto Team!
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