Week 9

Welcome to the weekly UpCrypto Trading Newsletter.

Brief Overview

What to expect in Week 9?
Markets continue to be influenced by economic data and corporate earnings. The PCE inflation report on Friday will be a key event, as it provides insight into whether inflation is easing.

Weekly Market Recap:
The S&P 500 reached a new all-time high early in the week, but a sharp decline on Friday erased those gains. Tech stocks remain the primary market driver, but signs of sector rotation and profit-taking are increasing. Bitcoin remains highly volatile, struggling with weak spot demand and ETF outflows.

Earnings Highlights:
This week features key earnings reports from NVIDIA, Salesforce, Snowflake, Dell, and Autodesk. NVIDIA’s Wednesday earnings will be closely monitored to assess whether AI demand remains strong or signs of weakness emerge.

What does week 9 bring?

Monday, February 24:

• No significant economic reports

• Earnings Reports
  Results from Domino's Pizza Inc. (DPZ), Zoom Communications Inc. (ZM), Hims & Hers Health Inc. (HIMS)

Tuesday, February 25:

• Consumer Confidence
  Expected at 102.1 – A key indicator of consumer sentiment and spending trends.

• S&P Case-Shiller Home Price Index
  Expected at 4.5% YoY – A measure of home price trends across major metropolitan areas.

• Earnings Reports
  Results from Home Depot Inc. (HD), Intuit Inc. (INTU), Workday Inc. (WDAY), Coupang Inc. (CPNG)

Wednesday, February 26:

• New Home Sales
  Expected at 0.69M – A key indicator of housing market strength.

• Earnings Reports
  Results from Lowe's Companies Inc. (LOW), NVIDIA Corp. (NVDA), Salesforce Inc. (CRM), Snowflake Inc. (SNOW)

Thursday, February 27:

• Durable Goods Orders
  Expected at 1.3% – A measure of demand for long-term manufactured goods.

• GDP (Second Estimate)
  Previous: 3.1%, Expected: 2.3% – A revision of Q4 economic growth.

• Initial Jobless Claims
  Expected at 220K – A key indicator of labor market strength.

• Earnings Reports
  Results from Dell Technologies Inc. (DELL), Autodesk Inc. (ADSK), HP Inc. (HPQ), NetApp Inc. (NTAP)

Friday, February 28:

• Chicago PMI
  A key measure of business activity in the Midwest.

• PCE Prices
  Forecasted at 0.4% – The Fed’s preferred inflation measure.

• Personal Income MoM
  Expected at 0.4% – A measure of income growth.

• Personal Spending
  Expected at 0.2% – A measure of consumer spending.

Weekly Market Recap

Last week was marked by increased volatility, particularly in the crypto market. A security breach at Bybit resulted in the theft of $1.5 billion in Ethereum, leading to a temporary drop in Bitcoin from $99,000 to $95,000. Despite this, market sentiment remains positive, supported by institutional interest and favorable regulatory developments.

At the same time, Bitcoin ETFs continued to see outflows, signaling profit-taking by institutional investors. However, long-term demand for crypto remains strong, especially as adoption and integration into traditional finance continue to grow.

Equity markets showed mixed performance. While the S&P 500 reached new all-time highs, some economic indicators suggest a potential decline in consumer confidence. Notably, the S&P Services PMI fell below the expansion threshold of 50, signaling contraction in the service sector.

The Federal Reserve remains cautious on rate cuts, with expectations for the first cut now pushed to September 2025. Future monetary policy will depend on upcoming inflation trends and economic data.

Crypto & Market Outlook for Week 9

This week could be a turning point for the markets. Nvidia’s earnings on Wednesday and the PCE inflation data on Friday will be the two most important events, as they could dictate market direction for the coming weeks.

Key Macro Events:

• Wednesday:

  • Nvidia earnings will be a critical test for the AI and tech rally. The company has been a major beneficiary of the AI boom, and expectations are high. A weaker-than-expected report or cautious guidance could put pressure on the entire tech sector.

• Friday:

  • The PCE Price Index, the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, will be released. If inflation comes in above the expected 0.4%, markets could react negatively as rate cut expectations get pushed further into the future.

Bitcoin & Crypto Market Trends:

Bitcoin is at a critical level. After dipping due to the Bybit hack, BTC has recovered and is now trading around $96,000.

• Resistance at $100,000 remains key. If Bitcoin breaks above this level, the next target would be $105,000.

• Support at $93,000. A break below could lead to a deeper correction towards $88,000.

• ETF flows remain weak: While long-term investors continue accumulating, institutional buyers remain cautious.

If market sentiment worsens (e.g., weak Nvidia earnings or higher-than-expected inflation), Bitcoin could face renewed pressure.

Market Scenarios for Week 9:

• Bullish Scenario:
  Nvidia delivers strong earnings and a positive outlook, while the PCE report indicates cooling inflation. This would support risk assets, allowing both equities and crypto to continue their uptrend.

• Bearish Scenario:
  Nvidia misses expectations or issues cautious guidance, and PCE inflation data comes in higher than expected, reinforcing the “higher for longer” Fed narrative. This could pressure both tech stocks and cryptocurrencies, leading to a broader correction.

• Neutral Scenario:
  Nvidia reports solid but not exceptional earnings, and PCE inflation aligns with expectations. In this case, markets would likely consolidate within their current range.

Conclusion

Week 9 could be a pivotal moment for the markets. With Nvidia’s earnings and the PCE inflation data, two major catalysts are lined up to determine the short-term direction.

Key Takeaways for Week 9:

• Nvidia earnings in focus – a key driver for the tech sector.

• PCE inflation report on Friday – crucial for Fed policy and rate expectations.

• Bitcoin at critical resistance – breakout or pullback?

• ETF flows remain weak – institutional investors remain cautious.

If inflation proves to be more persistent, the Fed will have limited room for rate cuts, which could weigh on risk assets. However, a positive surprise could fuel a continued rally, bringing crypto back into focus.

Here's to a successful week, and stay tuned for more weekly outlooks on the crypto and financial markets.

Best regards,
your UpCrypto Team!

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