The Fed raised interest rates on Wednesday.
Bitcoin is now higher.
If that confuses you, you're probably reading markets backwards.
Here's what most investors miss.
Markets don't wait for the news.
They price in what they EXPECT the news to be.
Going into the FOMC, the market was already pricing roughly a 90% probability of a 25 basis point rate hike.
So think about this.
If almost everyone already expects the Fed to hike rates on Wednesday, why would the market wait until Wednesday to react?
It doesn't.
The adjustment starts BEFORE the event.
And that's exactly what we were watching.
Crypto sold off going into the FOMC.
Fear increased.
Prices came down.
But the rate hike itself was hardly a surprise.
And that distinction matters.
Because while a lot of investors were waiting nervously for the Fed announcement, I was looking at what the market had already priced in.
During that selloff, I bought two altcoins near their local lows.
I also sent the setup and my reasoning to our clients in real time.
Some chose to act on it.
Within roughly 48 hours, those positions were up around 15%.
Now, that does NOT mean we suddenly get reckless.
We're already approaching resistance again, so we're watching the next decision carefully.
And this is the bigger lesson.
You don't make good investment decisions by reacting to headlines after everybody else sees them.
You build scenarios BEFORE the event.
What is already priced in?
Where are the important levels?
What would confirm our thesis?
What would prove us wrong?
Where would we deploy capital?
Where would we reduce risk?
That's what we do at Sonderberg Research.
Especially if you're running a business, you probably don't have time to spend ten hours a week watching charts, Fed probabilities, liquidity, market structure and sentiment.
So we do the research.
We map the scenarios.
We track the market.
We send the alerts when something actually matters.
You keep control of your money and make the final decision.
Because your job isn't to become a full-time trader.
It's to have a system in place before everyone else starts reacting.
Best,
Diego Sonderberg